A quick note on the Latino Vote since we’ve got most of the data in to draw conclusions (looking at you California)…
I’ve been a studying and analyzing state and national data since the 1992 cycle and there’s one constant:
I’ve been a studying and analyzing state and national data since the 1992 cycle and there’s one constant:
If one side disagrees with the exit polls they’ll produce their own ‘data’ to draw the conclusions they want. If they like it they’ll stick with it.
There has been an unfortunate growth in ‘Latino experts’ recently, many of whom I’ve never heard of before this year. Beware!
There has been an unfortunate growth in ‘Latino experts’ recently, many of whom I’ve never heard of before this year. Beware!
The Latino vote is very dynamic and complicated. The construct of what we called Latino voters in 1980 was very different than 2000 and far different than 2020.
There’s going to be a lot of cherry-picking of data to set a ‘narrative’ that each party wants.
There’s going to be a lot of cherry-picking of data to set a ‘narrative’ that each party wants.
A couple of top-line observations about the Latino vote:
First, looking like turnout is down a bit from recent highs. Probably between ‘18 and ‘20 numbers which is where we predicted it to be on the @TheLatino_Vote podcast.
First, looking like turnout is down a bit from recent highs. Probably between ‘18 and ‘20 numbers which is where we predicted it to be on the @TheLatino_Vote podcast.
Second, looking like there’s much more regional variation state-by-state than we usually see.
Biggest surprise for me so far is Arizona. Exits showing a rightward shift that’s broken through it’s historic range by 3-5%
Nevada came in better for DEMs by an equal shift othr way
Biggest surprise for me so far is Arizona. Exits showing a rightward shift that’s broken through it’s historic range by 3-5%
Nevada came in better for DEMs by an equal shift othr way
Third, it’s clear the shift in 2020 was real. And in two very different environments the Latino vote is holding in the upper 30’s range for Republicans.
This is quite significant. I predicted it would retrench to a historic range given good D performance numbers.
I was wrong.
This is quite significant. I predicted it would retrench to a historic range given good D performance numbers.
I was wrong.
Fourth, most of the highest concentrated Hispanic CD’s in the country showed tighter margins between D & R candidates. That means the rightward shift held or continued. Regression analysis will tell us more soon but again - more evidence of the shift.
Finally, the exit polls show the rightward shift was sustained. Exits are the only consistent data set that goes back decades and as much as partisans want to discount it - they can’t. And shouldn’t.
I’ll be writing a lot more soon but these final numbers from the exits on Latinos tell a story any serious observer has to pay attention to. h/t @PatrickRuffini Trump got 35% in 2020 
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