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Nov 12 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Update đź§µNovember 12th

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The Ukrainian general staff reported shellings all along the active frontline. There are also some shellings on the right Bank of the Dnipro in northern Kherson region. Image
Kupyansk-Svatove
There does not seem to be a lot of movement in this area at the moment.
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Masyutivka, Orlyans'ke, Novoselivs'ke, Miasozharivkaand and Makiivka. ImageImage
Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bilohorivka and Verkhn'okam'yans'ke. This area does not move much either. Image
Bakhmut
Continued attacks on Bakhmut and Soledar. It will be interesting to see if the situation will change now that both sides free up assets in the Kherson region.
Both attacks were repulsed by the AFU. Image
Donetsk
According to RU telegram, they occupied Optyne. They provided video a video, I think it's likely the took it. According to the RU sources I've seen it is this one down by Donetsk, but here is one by Bakhmut too, so just be aware there could be some confusion. Image
t.me/izvestia/111583
The AFU repulsed attacks around
Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelsk, Maryinka and Pavlivka
Kherson
I have decided to consider the entire right bank of the Dnipro liberated. Any kind of pockets of resistance should be cut of from their supply lines, in that case this is just a matter of time.

Ukraine liberated 4967 km2 according to my map. Image
Thread from yesterday about the UA strategy in Kherson and what this win means.
Kinburn peninsula rumors.
I think the language in this video is extremely vague and avoiding. I don't think this is confirmations of ongoing operations on the peninsula.
"Time will tell" GeromanAT - 2022

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More from @DefMon3

Nov 13
Update đź§µNovember 13th

This presentation is brought to you by Kimdotcom and Dr. Evil.

I really did not have anythign prepared, so I had to use what was in front of me.

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Shellings Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 11
đź§µKherson
Some people seems confused about the Ukrainian victory in Kherson.

It is important to understand the strategy and the goals.

The goal was to liberate the area, not to kill as many Russians as possible or to destroy as much infrastructure as possible.
Statement regarding the first hits on the Antonivsky Bridge
The liberation of Kherson is the result of 3 months of attrition warfare. Continued attacks on the Russian ground lines of communications was at the end too much for Russia. To succeed this this, you also need them to spend ammo and fuel. They spend ammo and fuel during combat.
Read 21 tweets
Nov 11
Update đź§µNovember 11th

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Shellings reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
Kherson region is looking quite strange for obvious reasons.
Read 20 tweets
Nov 10
I get a lot of questions about the Russian retreat.
Why would they announce the retreat before they leave?
Why would they announce it on TV?
Here is what I believe:
The retreat has been going on for weeks.
There is only a small number of troops left east of the river, mostly lower valued units like mobniks and goat lovers. Some will most likely be sacrificed to cover the retreat of the last units
Announcing it on TV gives the Russian leadership a chance to save face. Kadyrov and Prigozhin immediately came with statement saying Surovikin was very brave and that he saved a lot of Russian lives. This announcement was purely for domestic propaganda.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 10
Update đź§µNovember 10th

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Yesterdays thread:


Parts of this will be kept short because of the situation in Kherson taking a lot of my time.

Kyiv was a feint.
Kharkiv was a feint.
Kherson was a feint.

Friendly advice, stay away from areas starting with K in the future.
GSUA reported shellings all along the active frontline and the Russian border. There was an unusual amount of shellings in northern Ukraine today.
Read 16 tweets
Nov 10
Kherson
I have 10 settlements I consider being confirmed as liberated today. This is moving pretty fast.
It appears we are about 12-24 hours behind actual events based on rumors yesterday. Image
Read 27 tweets

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