Thread by @1goodtern

I would love someone intelligent and mathsy to explain to me reinfections.
Here's the state of things in England, but it should be applicable in most places where the government is trying to infect everyone repeatedly.
We need to talk about them.

In total we've had somewhere around 120,000,000 infections here, give or take ten million, estimated by the ONS through regular surveys of the population using PCRs.

Which means we've had enough infections for everyone to get infected a couple of times.

But we've 'only' had 20,000,000 actual cases confirmed individually via PCR testing, and 1,340,000 reinfections confirmed individually via PCR testing.

So that's about 6.5 percent of total infections that have been confirmed by PCR that have been reinfections.
That number is steadily rising.

And there isn't much actual testing going on any more.
Out of the 150,000 or so people who catch Covid each day here now, only a few thousand 1-10k are caught on PCR or LFT.
But of those that test positive, almost 40% are currently confirmed as being reinfections.

But there is a strict definition for 'reinfections':
"People with 2 positive samples taken at least 90 days apart – and with no positive tests in-between"

So my schoolteacher friend who tested positive in November 21, January 22 (sixty days later) and then March 22 (sixty days later), with negative tests and no symptoms in between, does not count as being reinfected.

And my schoolmum friend who tested positive in December 21 and March 21 (80 days later), with negative tests and no symptoms in between, does not count as being reinfected.

And my nurse friend who tested positive in October 21, December 21 (80 days later), and February 22 (40 days later) with negative tests and no symptoms in between, does not count as being reinfected.

For my schoolteacher friend, her first and third infections were 120 days apart - but testing positive in between broke the definition. That wasn't just one reinfection, that was *two* missed from the statistics.

And a colleague friend who was horribly ill in January 21 without a positive test, and then hospitalised in January 22 with a positive test did not count as being reinfected.

And another colleague friend who tested positive on PCR in Feb 22 and then positive on privately bought LFT (which can't be registered online) in October 22 did not count as being reinfected.

To get in the statistics you need a positive test each time on the tests that are allowed to be entered online.

If we've had 120,000,000 total infections here, and have confirmed 20,000,000 of them, that's only 1 in 6 infections confirmed by test.

This is the bit where I'd love a mathematician to work out and explain to me how many reinfections there really are.

Because the liars are saying again that the cases we're having at the moment are mostly people who haven't caught it yet.
🚨 which is fundamentally obviously false🚨

But they just can't help themselves.
Lying has been really good for them so far, and they've had no comeback for it, so they're sticking with it.

They drive me nuts.

Anyway, to summarise, reinfections are *massive* here, and I think we can only see the tip of the iceberg, and the line is going up📈⏫

Hey, also, I don't know if you heard about this, but reinfections are pretty shit:

https://twitter.com/1goodtern/status/1591040020428775425?s=20&t=l4Uqt1LrVxND7AJ5dx3YOg

While we're here...
Is this right?
And what's causing the high climb at the end?
The evasive convergents?