Thread by @tomiahonen

This is a massive win for Democrats. We kept the Senate, in the first midterms after one party took the White House. This cycle should have been devastating against us

Two big keys: Trump got involved, & reaction to Roe vs Wade. But also great politics by DEM

I will do a Thread

So understand. We were SUPPOSED TO LOSE

In nearly every cycle in as far as anyone can remember, the party who took the White House, loses in the next midterms (exception was 2002 because of Osama Bin Laden terrorist attack on Sept 11 & wave of patriotism cancelled this pattern)

If we had lost the Senate, not only would Joe Biden's agenda be dead for the next 2 years, GOP would have run all sorts of nastiness, forcing Biden to veto nearly everything - weakening Biden for 2024

And worse: the Teenage Mutant Mitch McTurtle would have controlled judges

This election result - we keep the Senate - is rare & an INCREDIBLE victory for Democrats. And note, it may hold as 'no change' election result, when all is done, at 50/50 Senate (ties broken by Vice President Kamala Harris, for us) - But we may still GAIN one seat (Sen Warnock)

The headwinds for the Democrats had two powerful boosters. President Joe Biden has not been focused on HIS political popularity, he has focused on governing, and fixing enormous damage done by GOP, & keeping promises: like infrastructure, bipartisanship, Afghanistan, gun control

As the President has not focused on his OWN popularity, like most recent Presidents, at this point - heading into his first midterms - President Biden popularity is FAR below 50%. Same as recently Trump, Obama, Bill Clinton at this point in their Presidency (W Bush was exception)

In addition to President Biden popularity being well below 50%, also the newsmedia ran on a boogie man story - driven by GOP propaganda - Inflation. This is silly, partly because GOP caused what little inflation we have, and partly that inflation is not in any way 'bad'

Furthermore, the newsmedia has been pushing the FAKE story, of gas prices (which is not same as inflation). AND gas prices have been manipulated by Saudi Arabia against US elections (to help GOP). More gas prices controlled by the oil industry for massive profits. So is false..

The REAL economy story is JOB GROWTH, at US record speed under Biden, after catastrophic job loss under Trump. In addition to job growth, there is growth in wages (after decade of salary stagnation). If newsmedia had been honest - they'd tell REAL story of the economy being good

So in addition to historical pattern - that is brutal - there is real story of Biden approval being bad at this point, AND fake story of gas prices, & an utterly fake economic story of inflation

The red wave was supposed to be CRIPLING against us. Yet in Senate there was NO WAVE

It is plausible - I would say likely - that we pick up one seat in Georgia runoff, and fake cop Herschel Walker loses again

If we also win Georgia - instead of red wave - in Senate there was a BLUE WAVE, yes modest one, but still - an avalance going UP HILL, against ALL ODDS

The Senate races were excellently run by Democrats. Great fundraising by President Biden, Chuck Schumer, Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic party, and strong campaigns themselves

There were great surrogates like President Obama, and Oprah Winfrey

But two factors cancelled the (potentially massive) red wave:

Abortion (SCOTUS ruling on Roe vs Wade)

And Trump. Both were measured in exit polls. Both drove votes for us. Both had LARGE effects

Abortion almost cancelled Inflation

Trump more than cancelled Biden

The single biggest factor why we kept he Senate - was Trump

#LetTrumpBeTrump

Trump is the most toxic politician in US history. He has personally destroyed the 2018 midterms, 2020 general election and 2022 midterms for GOP

Trump flipped House for DEMs in 2018

Trump flipped the White House for DEMs in 2020

Trump flipped the Senate for DEMs after 2020 election, in the 2021 Special Election of Georgia (flipping BOTH red Senator seats in a red state of Georgia to blue)

With those elections, he was worst US politician in modern history

Yet the GOP let Trump come ruin their 2022 midterms

Now Trump personally got involved in Senator races, and wiped out the GOP chances to retake the Senate.

This makes Trump most toxic politician in US history

AND he is headed to destroy GOP into 2024 Presidential Election TOO

What did Trump do? Not only was his PERSONAL brand devastatingly bad (Trump approval among those who voted this midterms wad 39% !!!! EIGHT POINTS below his losing election of 2020)

Trump picked HORRIBLE candidates for Senator, like dog-killing Dr Oz, & fake cop Herschel Walker

Arizona is a red state. The Senate seat for Senator Mark Kelly should have been an easy flip back to red, for the Republicans

Yet Trump selected maganutter Blake Masters who lost by SIX POINTS

In a RED STATE

#LetTrumpBeTrump

Pennsylvania is a purple state. The Senator seat was held by GOP but because of retirement, the race was 'open'. We had a good chance on even 50/50 state with strong candidate John Fetterman

Who then had a STROKE. Had GOP had a sane, normal candidate, this election would be over

Yet Trump nominated Turkish citizen, carpetbagger from New Jersey, 329 dog killing Maganutter, Mehmet Oz. In a race that should have been a RUN-AWAY win against the guy who just suffered a stroke during the campaign, instead Trump maganutter lost by FOUR POINTS !

It wasn't close

Georgia is a red-trending Purple state, that safely re-elected its Republican Governor Kemp by EIGHT POINTS

Any SANE Republican would have EASILY won this Senate Race. Yet Trump nominated fake cop Herschel Walker who lost by FOUR points

(Compred to Kemp, that is 12 POINT SWING)

And Nevada? Is a purple state that is trending red. We just lost the Governor race by 2 points

If GOP had nominated anyone sane, we'd have lost the Senate seat too

Yet Senator Cortez-Masto was just called to win this race. She'll end up about 1 point (net difference 3 points)

Trump is WIPING OUT the GOP

He is toxic himself. He takes their money from donors and uses it to pay his own attorneys. Money desperately needed in these campaigns

Trump runs voter supression AGAINST HIS OWN SIDE with early vote, mail-in-vote, and election denials

Yes, our team ran GREAT races, we had great candidates. The SCOTUS decision of Roe vs Wade also brought in part of our blue wave

But the biggest factor that gave us the Senate in 2022 - is Trump..

He is the political gift that KEEPS ON GIVING

#LetTrumpBeTrump

We kept the Senate partly by great politics, and great Senator candidates. CONGRATULATIONS

Republicans were damaged by SCOTUS decision on Roe vs Wade

But the BIGGEST damage to GOP chances to retake Senate was Trump. He personally destroyed GOP in Senate

#LetTrumpBeTrump