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Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

@Martyupnorth_2

Mar 11

The more I think about the 2025 Liberal leadership race results, the more I suspect the outcome.

They're trying too hard to make it look like it was a fair and democratic process.

85.9% for an "Outsider" who doesn't have a seat in the House of Commons. I mean, I don't like Freeland and Gould, but certainly they should have grabbed 10-15% of the first round votes. Carney is in despot territory with that result.

Here's some recent international examples of other dictators for comparison.

Vladimir Putin (Russia, 2024): Putin won the Russian presidential election with 88.48% of the vote on March 15-17, 2024.

Paul Kagame (Rwanda, 2024): Kagame secured 99.18% of the vote in the July 15, 2024, presidential election, extending his rule since 2000

Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan, 2024): Aliyev took 92.12% of the vote in the February 7, 2024, presidential election, called early after Azerbaijan’s military success in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Emmerson Mnangagwa (Zimbabwe, 2023): Mnangagwa won the August 23–24, 2023, presidential election with 76.8% of the vote

Politicians in western democracies rarely win with more than 50% of the popular vote, that's just the result of, fair, open, competitive elections.

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I find this part equally bizarre.

Registering for the Liberal party was free, which is why 400,000 people did it (including me).

Obtaining a ballot was very complicated. Voters had to prove their age, nationality and place of residence, either in person at a Canada Post outlet or online using a new App.

Some people were legitimately disqualified, but thousands also gave up out of frustration. Eventually 163,836 people qualified for a ballot.

Voting was open for a week, and 151,899 (92.7%) of eligible voters cast a ballot. That means that 11,937 people who went through the complicated registration process didn't bother voting.

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This is the most suspicious part for me.

According to the "official" results, Carney won in all 338 ridings. He even won in the ridings of his opponents, including Freeland and Gould's who are currently sitting MPs.

He won every single riding with 75% or more of the votes.

That's statistically impossible. There should have been a few ridings where Freeland and Gould had strong showings.

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Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

@Martyupnorth_2

Feb 18

⚠️Inflation is on the rise again in Canada

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% year-over-year in January, following an increase of 1.8% in December.

In January, increased energy prices, notably for gasoline and natural gas, contributed the most to the acceleration. These price increases were partly offset by continued downward pressure on prices for products affected by the goods and services tax (GST)/harmonized sales tax (HST) break introduced in December.

Note: It's interesting that the Liberals will claim that removing the GST decreased inflation, but they won't say the same thing about the carbon tax.

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Prices for new passenger vehicles rise, while prices for used passenger vehicles fall in January.

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The Consumer Price Index rises at a faster pace in six provinces in January.

Manitoba has the highest inflation.

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Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

@Martyupnorth_2

Feb 14

Update on Interprovincial Trade

Most Canadian businesses only sell in their own province (right column). The province that does the most interprovincial sale is Alberta.

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www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

Interestingly, while most businesses don't sell to other provinces, almost 50% of the business BUY from another province.

What province are they buying from? Ontario.

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What are the top 3 obstacles experienced by businesses when selling goods or services to customers located in another province or territory?

Transportation cost: 23.2%
Distance between point of origin & destination: 7.5%
Lack of profitability: 6.4

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Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

@Martyupnorth_2

Jan 23

⚠️Alert ⚠️

Yesterday the Parliamentary Budget Officer put out this report, highlighting serious errors in the Fall Economic Update tabled by Freeland just before Christmas.

Here are his biggest concerns:

1) As the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimated last year, the Government’s 2023-24 budgetary deficit was worse than Budget 2024 indicated.

2) Given the uncertain and volatile global context, the Government’s economic scenarios downplay risks.

3) The demographic assumptions underpinning the Fall Economic Statement’s economic projection are not transparent, and likely inconsistent with current Government policy.

4) Expenses for contingent liabilities continue to grow and are an increasing source of fiscal risk.

5) The Public Service’s ability to produce timely, high-quality Public Accounts is deteriorating.

This should be discussed in the House of Commons, or in the Standing Committee on Finances, but unfortunately both have been suspended when Trudeau prorogued Parliament.

The media sure won't talk about this.

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pbo-dpb.ca/en/publication…

The deficit is even worse than forecast.

Freeland said the deficit is in the $62 billion range. The PBO thinks there's an additional $15 billion.

We're also learning that the tax revenue expected from the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate might be null, so that could add another $10 billion to the deficit.

CAnada is facing a potential $90 billion deficit for this fiscal year.

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No transparency on immigration assumptions.

The PBO is saying that immigration assumptions, which have a huge impact on GDP calculations, are all speculative.

On October 24, the Government released its 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan (ILP), which included permanent resident targets and, for the first time, temporary resident targets for international students and temporary foreign workers.

The new targets for international migration translate to a 3.2 per cent downward revision to Canada’s demographic outlook, equivalent to 1.4 million fewer residents by the end of 2027.

PBO estimates that the new immigration targets would reduce nominal GDP—the broadest measure of the government’s tax base—by 37 billion on average over the next three years.

That's going to negatively impact the debt/GDP ratio, which is the measure that Freeland used to justify her reckless borrowing.

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Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

@Martyupnorth_2

Jan 3

🧵Details on the equalization program.

This post created a lot of debate, and it became apparent very quickly that most Canadians don't have a clue about the difference between federal and provincial taxes, transfer payments, equalization payments and the complex relationship between Ottawa and the provinces.

I put together the following table, based on 2023 data. It's not perfect because I had to get information from half a dozen places, and it takes a lot of time to understand the various reports, and filter out what's relevant.

This is a summary of the federal taxes collected by Ottawa vs. the expenditures, sorted by province.

(I excluded the 3 territories because they're so small).

I'll go into detail in the following posts.

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The left side of the chart is the amount of federal taxes collected from every province.

Ottawa, through the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), collects provincial and federal taxes on behalf of all the provinces & territories, except Quebec. Quebec has it's own tax collection agency called Revenu Québec.

The column marked "Federal Personal Income Taxes Collected" is simply that. I did not include corporate taxes, provincial taxes, royalties or other fees.

Ontario has 14.2 million citizens, so it sends the most tax money to Ottawa. Followed by Quebec, AB and BC. Then it drops off quickly.

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On a per capita basis, Albertans pay the most federal taxes.

That's simply because we have better paying jobs, and work smarter than everyone else.

At the bottom is New Brunswick. The disparity is actually wider than I expected, and explains why equalization payments are a thing.

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Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

@Martyupnorth_2

Dec 31, 2024

🧵What is killing Albertans in record numbers, and why is our life expectancy going down?

The government usually publishes an annual report on causes of death, but they didn't for 2023, so I had to do my own research.

This chart (from Statista, based on Statistics Canada data) shows the annual deaths in Alberta from 2000 to 2023.

I added the trend arrows.

Up until 2019-2020 (red arrow) the number of annual deaths increased by about 2% annually. That was in line with an increasing overall population that was also slightly aging.

Then something dramatic started occurring in 2020-2021 (orange arrow). The number of deaths jumped for that year, and every year since. Not only that, but the annual change also increased to about 4%

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statista.com/statistics/568…

In the past, the government of Alberta used to publish a report called "Leading Causes of Death" for a given year.

The last such report was published in September 2023 for the 2022 calendar year.

The report for 2023 is 15 months late, but something tells me the government won't publish this report any more, so I went looking for alternate sources of data....which I found.

open.alberta.ca/opendata/leadi…

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I found the raw data for causes of death in Alberta.

There were 32,256 deaths in Alberta in 2023, sorted by almost 100 different causes.

Note: Every time I access the database, the numbers change slightly. Many sources of data do this. That's because data is constantly being modified and corrected. It usually takes 3-4 years before data become final.

ahw.gov.ab.ca/IHDA_Retrieval…

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Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker

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