I’ll make a lengthy blog post breakdown of what happened in #PASen once everything’s in, but let me take the time to talk about why this midterm was so morale boosting for Dems. We found out that there are very clear limits to what the electorate is willing to accept (1/x)
from election denialism to abortion restrictions to allowing poor general election candidates through from the primary. Trump made things murky in 2016 and 2020, but we, along with GOP leadership, realize that you can only go so far before enough people decide to bite back. (2/x)
Furthermore, this election proved to Dems that not all is lost. Even in unfavorable midterms, it’s possible to do incredibly well even in R-leaning seats by nominating solid candidates, having a good ground game, etc. We’re not bleeding at all. Just need to focus. (3/x)
Even more heartening is the fact that we have *incredible candidates.* From Fetterman and Shapiro in PA to our other victorious Senate incumbents to the people who somehow flipped GOP held seats, we have no shortage of a deep bench nationwide to draw talent from. (4/x)
The future of the Dem party is bright. We made gains in state legislatures across the country, defied expectations, know what works for us in the future/what the electorate likes, etc. Just don’t squander the lessons learned and we’ll have many more good years ahead. (End)
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As I conduct the postmortem on #PASen, my thoughts keep drifting back to the one realistic shot Dems have at a pickup in 2024 - #TXSen. This is because I see one element of Fetterman's playbook that can be used there to devasting effect. I'll elaborate. (1/x)
Now, nobody should try to replicate him and his unique brand. Nobody can. It was a mixture of a lot of things that came together properly. But one thing that stands out and can be carried over to other races is the ability to brand opposition candidates as unserious. (2/x)
We already know Ted Cruz is deeply unpopular in Texas. That helped Beto a lot and made it close in 2018, but he didn't quite push/leverage Cruz's unpopularity in as aggressive or as joke-y of a way that Fetterman did. This is a guy who vacationed in Cancun, ffs. (3/x)
Now that my pre-election post is out, I need to lay out a few things about how tomorrow goes. Please retweet or save this just so that everyone is abundantly clear about what happens. I want as little stress on you guys as possible. (1/x)
1. I'll start coverage shortly after 6 PM EST and look at what we're getting on the ground before moving to feeding votes into my model once the polls close.
2. I will continuously tweet updates on benchmarks as I get them. IE - Fett needs 30% in Beaver, he's getting 35%.
3. I'm going to be very clearly honest about how the night is unfolding as it progresses. If it's looking bad for either candidate, I will state as such. I may be a Fett shill, but accuracy matters.
1. Fetterman has the $$$ advantage in the final stretch. 2. Fetterman continues to lead in 99% of nonpartisan polls. 3. Fetterman has the distinct home turf/regional advantage. 4. Early returns show (not guaranteed) Fetterman's edge in relation to #3.
Like, I get it. But CCM does not possess 2-3 of the advantages I listed and if you're going to have her favored, that says a lot about how you selectively choose to weigh fundamentals. NV is extremely transient and PA isn't.
Still fully prepared to eat my words on ED if it comes to that, but there is an increasingly disturbing untethering of reality of PA Senate versus actual fundamentals.
~65,000 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to a little over 1.1 million votes cast.
Dem return rate is 79.5%.
GOP return rate is 78.1%.
Solid green = 80%+ returns, light green = 70-80%.
There are a LOT of breakdowns here. Read on...
1. SEPA massively delivered in a last minute clutch and all Philly collars + Philly itself are either above 70% reporting or edging close to 80%. If you were concerned about them, you can breathe far easier now.
2. Montgomery and Chester shot almost 10 pts up in report rate.
3. Dem firewall is now at ~550,000.
4. Allegheny is on utter steroids as usual with almost 82% reporting.
5. Earlier analysis pointed to Oz needing to win ED by at least 20 to have a shot, but this batch pretty much locks that in. He has a long road ahead of him.
~42,000 ballots were returned, bringing us to ~1,060,000 cast.
Dem return rate went up to 75.3%, breaking the threshold of 3/4s of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is now 73%.
A few interesting observations with this one. Let's dive in.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. More collar counties have caught up today and crossed the 70% threshold. 2. Dem firewall is now 520,000+ strong. 3. Delaware County will cross 70% in the next batch to drop. 4. We have a handful of counties knocking on the 95%+ return rate door, should hit it in the next drop.
There's been a lot of conversation on the merits of analyzing the early vote this evening. Since I'm doing a fair bit of it for PA, allow me to offer a few thoughts about it. (1/x)
Disclaimer: I will say this - you do have to be careful about doing stuff like that. It varies wildly from state to state in terms of effectiveness. A big reason why I'm doing this revolves around testing a wider hypothesis I have about a hybrid model of election analysis. (2/x)
Subsequently, many of you quite rightly wonder how and where I came out of nowhere to start doing analysis for #PASen on an in-depth level. It just so happens that this year and an election that I'm heavily invested in finally allowed me the chance to test my thesis. (3/x)