Thread by @ThreshedThought

The Ukrainians have taken Kherson.

What now?

A map-based explainer.

The front lines look like this at the moment roughly. Nits underscored are where the Ru have undertaken substantial fortification and defensive work.

Now everyone keeps asking me what the Russians are going to do next.

Wrong question.

The momentum has been with the Ukrainians for some time.

The question is actually what are the Ukrainians going to do next.

If you look at this map there are two obvious directions the Ukr could advance. In the NE they are already pushing on the Savotove-Kremina road.

Has the benefit of cutting a major supply line to the Russian fortifications in the East (Donbas)

Or the could drive an axis south and try and cut the Russian forces in two. This has the benefit of cutting the last major railway supply line to the Russians in the South

But actually - the Ukr have conducted an amphibious landing in the Kilburn spit (blue box). With the recent advances in Kherson this is well within massed artillery range (i.e. not just the rarer HIMARS). The Russian are finding it very hard to hold

Reportedly the Ukr are half way up the spit and the Russians are trying to rush reinforcements to the area.

Why?

If the Ukr get a foothold there they will have turned the Russian flank.

All those Russian fortifications, pointless.

Anyway - what does this Ukr assault tell us?

That Crimea is there strategic goal here. And the reason for that is that it is the strategic centre of gravity of Putin’s credibility.

He got a massive boost from taking it in 2014.

Losing it now could mean the end of him.

I think there are a few other things we can pick out of this too.

I suspect the Ukr are going to fight through the winter.

Why?

Their soldiers are better trained and have higher morale than the Russians.

And so they will be at a distinct advantage over the winter.

The Russians are stuck in a defensive mindset, and they won’t want to get out of their trenches and foxholes.

The Ukrainians will just bypass them and smash up their supply.

So taking all this together - I think there are a bunch of things the Ukrainians are going to do now.

Judging by their way of war so far Russian logistics are in for another pasting.

Red line - Ru front line
Orange line - HIMARS range.

The Ru units on the approach to Crimea will gradually see their logistics dry up. (Numbers explained in a tweet further down)

What about Kinburn though? What’s that about?

It’s basically a diversion. The Ru have to pay attention to it (resources, troops etc)

But this diversion allows or makes it easier for the Ukrainians to do this

Put it all together on a map and it looks like this

1- distraction
2-degrade logistics
3 - decisive strike and drop the Kerch bridge for good measure.

And I’m guessing this will happen over the winter.

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