Who really runs this country now ?

@Conservatives Image
#Ready4Rishi & #Hunt call for tax increases and spending cuts which risk causing a spiralling recession plus worse 'austerity' than under Cameron & Osborne is all driven by an entirely arbitrary figure conjured up by the #OBR namely the £60 Bn 'black hole'

But ..
This gives the entirely false impression that there is some objectively measurable deficit in the public accounts which needs to be filled, resembling an overdraft on a personal bank account !

What matters is the debt/GDP ratio and #UK has the 2nd lowest in G7 after Germany

The OBR actually calculates the 'black hole' against an arbitrary target set by Chancellors ...

... so Hunt/Sunak could just adjust the fiscal rules, the most recent of which were set by George Osborne, who himself changed them from what was set by Gordon Brown !


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More from @owainpj

Nov 16
@jespow Sounds to an outsider like a 'lament for the greater fools' (inc the standard descant 'blaming the regulator')

By your own admission they should have been more careful and not trusted these people who showed who and what they were

Is that not 1.01 definition of 'greater fool' ?
@jespow I wish the technology and honest hard working people in crypto no ill will or harm but has been so obvious for so long that crypto was/is stuffed with (how did you put it) reckless greedy self-interested hubristic sociopaths preying on vulnerable/gullible/desperate/greedy fools
@jespow As for whinging that regulators didn't address offshore (how?) and "refused" (!) to provide workable regime under which services could be offered in supervised manner

If greedy fools want the protection of regulators then they should only deal with onshore regulated institutions
Read 9 tweets
Oct 16
@Noelasnia @Louiseaileen70 Those that do not understand the past are fated to repeat it

Media made entire narrative about the mini-budget (they are piling in on govt) whereas reality is that there were multiple factors involved in the UK bond crisis

EG BoE must address the factors it was responsible for
@Noelasnia @Louiseaileen70 Not least BoE were warned five years ago about LDIs

Now you can call that a backward facing argument, but that does not change the fact that this issue (similar to sub-prime mortgage derivatives in 2007/8) needs to be fixed
@Noelasnia @Louiseaileen70 Likewise doing a Quantative Tightening sell off of bonds the morning after a bond crisis in NY is just plain stupid BoE need to learn from this stuff
That's not a backward facing argument, it's a key learning which if not taken on board risks creating another crisis another day
Read 9 tweets
Jan 22, 2021
Watching the German government Covid press conference ...

will be interesting to see what questions the German media ask compared to what the UK media ask Boris

First point German Health Minister makes is anti-Covid measures are like taking antibiotics

One has to complete the full course

To stop taking the measures when things just start to get better risks strengthening the disease rather than stopping it

Measures must continue
1.5 Million vaccinations completed in Germany
cf 5M UK

~100,000 are second doses

60% of care home residents vaccinated

Target is all care home residents by the end of February

Makes point different countries have different priorities - Germany has chosen care homes as theirs
Read 14 tweets

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