📣 I know I've already posted these links several times, but I still keep seeing people asking "has anyone looked into whether the #GOPCovidDeathCult had a decisive impact on any midterm races, so once again, here you go:
If Katie Hobbs or Kris Mayes end up winning by less than ~4,100 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the #GOPCovidDeathCult was a decisive factor.
HOUSE RACES: Assuming all of the races *not* listed below don't see some dramatic turnaround, there's perhaps 8 House races left which could potentially end up falling within the #GOPCovidDeathCult range: AZ06, CA03, CA13, CA22, CA41, CA47, CO03, NY22. acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph…
As I keep saying, while I estimate perhaps ~150K more Trump voters died of COVID between the 2020 & 2022 elections than Biden voters, the vast bulk of them died in districts which are deep red (or deep blue) to begin with & the rest are spread out. acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph…
For instance, here's 2 of the deepest red districts in the nation: #AL04 & #KY05.
In each, I estimate around *30x more* Trump voters died of COVID between the 2020 & 2022 elections as Biden voters, or ~1,900 more apiece. Yet that was a rounding error in electoral impact.
And yes, the same holds true in deep blue districts, where more *Biden* voters likely died of COVID than Trump voters during the same time period, although not by nearly as dramatic ratios. Here's my estimates for 2 of the deepest *blue* districts (CA-12 & MD-04):
UPDATE: OK, as @swiley1983 notes, there's a third statewide race which is already currently in the #GOPCovidDeathCult zone: Arizona School Superintendent. We'll see if that holds, however.
There's probably a few dozen state legislative races & other local races which fell into this zone as well (county commissioners, city councils, etc) but most of these get so granular that it'd be impossible to tell even if I had the resources to dig down that deep.
UPDATE: Welp. There was just another small Arizona ballot drop, and the State School Superintendent race just flipped red.
UPDATE: Annnnd Dem Hoffman retakes the lead!
UPDATE: Annnnd all three Dems build up their lead a smidge more...
UPDATE: Annnnd with the Big Maricopa County vote drop, the GOP Superintendent candidate retakes the lead.
Dem Hobbs still up 20.5K, Dem Mayes now up just 4.2K...just barely outside of my #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 range.
📣 UPDATE: Dunno many votes are left to tabulate in Arizona, but it looks like the only statewide race in which the #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 ended up being a decisive factor in the outcome is ARIZONA ATTORNEY GENERAL.
I'll check other states to see if I missed anything else.
🚨 UPDATE: Again, I don't know how many votes are left to count in Arizona, but at this point, unless her lead doubles or more, if Kris Mayes wins Attorney General, it was DEFINITELY the #GOPCovidDeathCult💀 which put her over the top.
OK, *almost* certainly, anyway. My low-end estimate for Arizona's Red/Blue voter COVID death is ~900, my high end is ~4,100, so I can't be 100% certain, and of course I could never prove it, but I'm as confident about this as I can be, anyway.
If Hamadeh ends up winning, of course, this is all moot; it won't end up being the deciding factor in *any* statewide races.
Welp.
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I said it's our only *chance* of doing so. It would also require, within the next 4 years, either:
1. Both Alito & Thomas retire (hah) or pass away.
Or...
2. Congress passes legislation to either expand or otherwise modify SCOTUS.
Even THEN, the damage done by the SCOTUS majority (half of which appointed by Trump) *until* either of those things happens would still take YEARS or DECADES to repair.
And some of it can never be repaired.
...all because some of you refused to vote for Hillary in 2016.
As someone pushing HARD for folks to donate to Democrats up & down the ballot, I’d like to note something about the AIPAC money brouhaha re NY-16.
Yes, money CAN make a significant difference in a race, but only up to a point. After that there’s diminishing returns. 1/
My guess is the first few million dollars AIPAC spent on the NY-16 race probably helped Latimer by a point or two. After that, however, it probably didn’t make much difference at all & may have even hurt him a bit due to residents getting sick of the constant ads/mailers etc. 2/
As a different example, in 2020, the poster child for throwing money down the drain was Amy McGrath for Senate in KY. She raised an insane $90 million & lost by 20 points. Even more insane is she probably would have lost by about the same margin if she’d spent 1/10th as much. 3/
I just returned from my 4th road trip from Detroit to DC & back over the past 2 years. Since it's the same route each time I have a pretty apples to apples comparison on EV public chargers over time. 1/
The good news is that it looks like Electrify America, which makes up most of the chargers along the route (I-275/280, I-80/90 (OH Turnpike), I-70/270 (PA Turnpike), seems to be in the process of upgrading their charging stations; the newer ones seem to be more reliable. 2/
The bad news is that they've raised their prices substantially, at least at the stations along this route--they were usually $0.35/kWh 2 years ago; now they're charging $0.56/kWh.
By comparison, residential electricity in Oakland Cty, MI is around $0.18/kWh. 3/
Since partisan COVID death rates are back in the news again today, a reminder that ~150,000 *more* Trump voters died of COVID between the 2020 - 2022 elections than Biden voters due *specifically* to GOP/FOX/MAGA pushing antivax/anti-mitigation narratives. acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
Re. electoral impact, there was only one statewide race in which the GOP COVID Death Cult factor made a decisive difference:
In AZ, 900 - 4,100 more Trump voters died of COVID between Nov. 2020 - Nov. 2022.
🎉 MAY DEM FUNDRAISING PROJECT REPORT: Donations up 341% for the month & 89% overall vs. the same point in 2020!! 🧵 blue24.org/24/06/01/may-2…
As I teased the other day, by the end of May 2020 I had raised $303,000 for Democrats up & down the ballot. For the 2024 cycle, as of last night, I had raised over $573,000! 2/
Just as noteworthy is the *breakout* of donations: At this point in 2020, STATE LEGISLATIVE races only made up 10% of the total I had raised.
This cycle state legislative races make up *40%* of the total! 3/