📣 I know I've already posted these links several times, but I still keep seeing people asking "has anyone looked into whether the #GOPCovidDeathCult had a decisive impact on any midterm races, so once again, here you go:
If Katie Hobbs or Kris Mayes end up winning by less than ~4,100 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the #GOPCovidDeathCult was a decisive factor.
HOUSE RACES: Assuming all of the races *not* listed below don't see some dramatic turnaround, there's perhaps 8 House races left which could potentially end up falling within the #GOPCovidDeathCult range: AZ06, CA03, CA13, CA22, CA41, CA47, CO03, NY22. acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph…
As I keep saying, while I estimate perhaps ~150K more Trump voters died of COVID between the 2020 & 2022 elections than Biden voters, the vast bulk of them died in districts which are deep red (or deep blue) to begin with & the rest are spread out. acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph…
For instance, here's 2 of the deepest red districts in the nation: #AL04 & #KY05.
In each, I estimate around *30x more* Trump voters died of COVID between the 2020 & 2022 elections as Biden voters, or ~1,900 more apiece. Yet that was a rounding error in electoral impact.
And yes, the same holds true in deep blue districts, where more *Biden* voters likely died of COVID than Trump voters during the same time period, although not by nearly as dramatic ratios. Here's my estimates for 2 of the deepest *blue* districts (CA-12 & MD-04):
UPDATE: OK, as @swiley1983 notes, there's a third statewide race which is already currently in the #GOPCovidDeathCult zone: Arizona School Superintendent. We'll see if that holds, however.
There's probably a few dozen state legislative races & other local races which fell into this zone as well (county commissioners, city councils, etc) but most of these get so granular that it'd be impossible to tell even if I had the resources to dig down that deep.
UPDATE: Welp. There was just another small Arizona ballot drop, and the State School Superintendent race just flipped red.
UPDATE: Annnnd Dem Hoffman retakes the lead!
UPDATE: Annnnd all three Dems build up their lead a smidge more...
UPDATE: Annnnd with the Big Maricopa County vote drop, the GOP Superintendent candidate retakes the lead.
Dem Hobbs still up 20.5K, Dem Mayes now up just 4.2K...just barely outside of my #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 range.
📣 UPDATE: Dunno many votes are left to tabulate in Arizona, but it looks like the only statewide race in which the #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 ended up being a decisive factor in the outcome is ARIZONA ATTORNEY GENERAL.
I'll check other states to see if I missed anything else.
🚨 UPDATE: Again, I don't know how many votes are left to count in Arizona, but at this point, unless her lead doubles or more, if Kris Mayes wins Attorney General, it was DEFINITELY the #GOPCovidDeathCult💀 which put her over the top.
OK, *almost* certainly, anyway. My low-end estimate for Arizona's Red/Blue voter COVID death is ~900, my high end is ~4,100, so I can't be 100% certain, and of course I could never prove it, but I'm as confident about this as I can be, anyway.
If Hamadeh ends up winning, of course, this is all moot; it won't end up being the deciding factor in *any* statewide races.
Welp.
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Let's see here...a semi trailer (lower right) is roughly 50' long, so the venue is roughly 9 trailers x 4 trailers, or 450' x 200', or 90,000 sq. feet.
Of course the rear 1/3 is almost empty, but there's also some people lined up in the upper left, so call it ~80% full...
So, that's perhaps ~72,000 square feet of "tightly packed" people. According to this article, in a tightly-packed crowd the avg. person takes up ~4.5 sq. feet.
Now, the trailers I used are slightly closer to the camera than the people in the crowd, so I may have to adjust for scale a bit. If we bump it up by, say, 25% you get 20,000 people or so.
🧵 People have asked me why I started an organized project to raise money *directly* for Democratic candidates up & down the ballot when there's already so many other organizations out there doing this. There's a couple of reasons. 1/
The first is that most of the existing organizations/PACs/etc seem to (in my view) *either* focus ONLY on the true swing districts *or* they raise money for races which are clearly unwinnable without being up front about how long the odds in those races are. 2/
I try to walk the line between these--for district-level races I cast my net wider than most "tossup only!" advocates, but not absurdly wide; for statewide races I *do* include deep red states but also make it absolutely clear that those races are *very* long shots. 3/
A little fun Die Hard trivia for those who don’t know:
The first Die Hard was based on a 1979 novel called Nothing Lasts Forever by Roderick Thorp. In the novel McClain’s character was named Joe Leland. This was a sequel to a 1966 novel by Thorp called The Detective. 1/
The Detective had been made into a film starring Frank Sinatra as Joe Leland in 1968.
This means Bruce Willis plays the same character as Frank Sinatra.
In fact, the studio was contractually required to offer the role to Sinatra if he wanted it. Sinatra was 73 at the time.
As for the novel Nothing Lasts Forever (title since changed to “Die Hard”), it follows most of the same storyline and characters, but with a few VERY important differences…
How does the @nytimes know that these are actual federal officials who actually signed it if they did so “anonymously?”
Does that mean the Times is redacting their names? Or does it just say “signed, 400 officials” at the bottom of the letter?
@nytimes I’m not being snarky here—I can’t read the original NY Times article without a subscription; do they clarify how they verified that these 400 people actually are federal officials and that they did in fact sign off on the letter in it?