Scot126 Profile picture
Nov 14 10 tweets 4 min read
$panr $pthrf #panr @CG_Driven
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN) – Stock down 16% - Muddy Waters short attack: Weekend press staying that Muddy Waters is in the process of a short attack on Pantheon. They have not published anything (that we can find) for the company to make any...1/
...specific push-backs on, so in the meantime, all we can do is reiterate our thesis.
=> Well-testing remains key: I revert back to our research note from Oct 26th.
=> Alkaid#2 update - encouragement and challenges: No details beyond that the well produced..2/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...at initial fluid rates "in the thousands of barrels per day" with around 10% average oil cut.
=> The operational issue: Frack sand production has been higher than expected with limited handling capacity in the temporary test facilities. More positively,..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...the sand ingress into the well-bore has been identified as frack sand not reservoir sand. That indicates a solvable issue through careful test management rather than potentially greater problems that might have been caused by sand ingress related to...4/
#panr $panr $pthrf
...a poorly consolidated reservoir.
=> The forward plan - Three steps: 1) The larger permanent facilities (cf. the initial temporary facilities) are now being hooked up. They will have greater sand handling capacity. 5/
#panr $panr $pthrf
2) The arrival, expected soon, of a coiled tubing unit, will provide the means to clean out the well-bore. 3) Careful flow rate management such that the facilities' sand handling capacity is not stressed.
=> Timetable: We now anticipate...6/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...initial 'representative' test flow rates in late November. So far, only about 10% of the total frack fluid has been recovered. Representative rates typically come after substantially higher recovery of c.40%.
=> Overall: Encouraging to see oil production...7/
$panr #panr
...at this early stage of the test, but it is still too soon to draw any significant conclusions. The operational challenges have in our view raised, by half a notch, the risk level related to establishing a 'representative' test in this well, and the additional...8/
#panr $panr
...operations have understandably increased costs, though not significantly. /end
#panr $panr $pthrf @AlaskaPanr
NB NB NB. I should have said the above content comes directly from Canaccord today.

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More from @Scot126126

Nov 15
$panr $pthrf #panr @josh_young_
Josh - please treat this email thread with the seriousness it demands. Bison Interests is a regulated entity. You have 12 hours from the time of this tweet to correct the record otherwise I will be filing a formal complaint with the SEC. 1/
This is not a threat. This is a guarantee.
On Sept 20th this year you tweeted the following: "Directors selling millions of shares of Pantheon Resources stock, and then being "awarded" the same amount of shares. Not a good look. Not involved, no recommendation. $panr" 2/
You then attached a document which appears to be an excerpt of the $panr RNS dated 20/9/22.
I replied to your original tweet informing you I had, in the course of my career in UK investment banking, carried out many of these types of transactions on behalf of UK listed..3/
#panr
Read 48 tweets
Nov 14
@RieckKay @BurgghabenH @TwitterSupport
Dear Mr Rieck - I am sorry to inform you that @BurgghabenH has hired a private investigator in an attempt to doxx me. The private investigator and @BurgghabenH now appear to believe you are the account holder known as Scot126. 1/
@BurgghabenH has tweeted out a copy of your passport and photo and your address in the UAE. I am so sorry you have been caught up in this dreadful conduct. I don't know what's going on, what his motivation is, I just don't understand what's happening? There is a public...2/
...debate within investment circles in the UK and US about a London listed company called Pantheon Resources. Some hedge funds are alleging fraud. I disagree and have challenged them to present supporting evidence. But look at the lengths they're going to now. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Nov 13
$panr #panr #panr
There is no "gotcha" question remaining outstanding. After 12 years, $300m invested in Alaska, 6 wells and the award of two Production Units from the Dept of Natural Resources the core "known unknown" is lateral continuity.
Only Hempton thinks there's...1/
..."no oil". Everyone else from Peel Hunt to Baker Hughes to eSeis acknowledges the Oil in Place is >23 billion barrels. The key debate prior to obtaining the empirical data is whether commercial flow can be achieved from $panr's stacked reservoirs of light 35-40 API...2/
#panr
...crude oil. I assess that the *fact* "thousands of barrels" of fluid was returned to the surface during the initial clean up phase gives a strong indication the reservoir has, after a multi-stage frack to stimulate, the properties to allow commercial extraction. 3/
$panr #panr
Read 4 tweets
Nov 12
@Josh_Young_1 @BisonInterests @contrarian8888 @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 @AlaskaPanr @MuttOil @AIMhonesty
A fellow $panr shareholder told me you made a fatuous readacross from the price bid per acre the #panr bid in the recent lease sales run by the State...1/
$pthrf
...of Alaska Dept of Natural Resources. Something about the implied valuation of $panr's total acreage being c.$6m v's a mkt cap of c.$700m? Apart from the *fact* #panr is the *only* party which possesses 3D seismic data over that area (Great Bear invested c.$80m on shooting...2/
...seismic in the 2010s), I calculate the new northern extension to Theta West will see $panr's OIP move towards a gigantic 30bbo. Yes, that's correct. OIP approaching 30bbo, making it a larger accumulation of oil than Kuparuk River. I presume you're aware..3/
#panr $pthrf
Read 17 tweets
Oct 23
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 Yes, I have. I'd firstly refer you to the Canaccord and WH Ireland analysts' risked/unrisked models. Canaccord has a risked NPV of 300p and WH Ireland is c.180p (from memory?). Unrisked NPVs get you to 800p-1400p per share. 1/
$panr $pthrf #panr
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 The question you pose illustrates exactly the dilemma which $panr presents to the market. Using the traditional risked/unrisked E&P valuation methodology, the sheer scale of $panr's OIP and Technically Recoverable Resource means that even if a low risk of success..2/
#panr $pthrf
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 ...is attached to the project's potential value, a number is delivered which is at least double that of the current SP. Removing the risked calculation altogether leads to telephone numbers of NPV.
In the scenario where Alkaid-2 delivers a commercial flow, I contend...3/
$panr
Read 8 tweets
Oct 13
@contrarian8888 $pthrf
A thread on the *potential* implications of $panr proving commerciality at Alkaid-2 in the coming days. I wish to be more clear about the *upside risk* to this investment case, if proved.

- #panr has announced the discovery of an oil accumulation...1/
...in excess of 23 billion barrels of Oil in Place just 20 miles south of Deadhorse, Alaska. Independent validation of this data has come from the State of Alaska’s Dept of Natural Resources, eSeis, Lee Keeling & Assoc, AHS Baker Hughes and Schlumberger. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
I am not aware of one credible voice which refutes the Oil in Place figure.

- There is a legitimate debate that the characteristics of the stacked reservoirs discovered by $panr mean that recovering the oil commercially will be difficult, perhaps even impossible. 3/
#panr $pthrf
Read 12 tweets

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