#PANR $PANR $PTHRF #PTHRF $DJT #OOTT #Alaska #TrumpTrade #Trump #MAGA
🧵
Globally-recognised independent O&G expert, Wood Mackenzie, today published its assessment of the viability of the proposed Alaska gas pipeline and LNG export project. 1/
agdc.us/wp-content/upl… x.com/sporazene2/sta… For equity investors, the identity of the most leveraged way to play this massive infrastructure project (total cost $44bn) was confirmed in the WoodMac report. The answer is London and US OTC-listed Pantheon Resources (PANR LN and $PTHRF). This thread will explain why. 2/

#panr $panr $pthrf
There appears to be a massive misunderstanding about what the "illustrative" Alkaid model published by $panr means. I think I can be of some assistance 😇.
The NPV figures released yesterday formed a *base* case on the *current* volume and the...1/ ...*current* hydrocarbon mix, incorporating the *current* pricing of ANS (oil/NGL/condensate) and addressing the Alkaid reservoir *only*.
Current mkt cap: $500m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $80 oil = $423m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $70 oil = $223m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $60 oil = $12m
2/

$panr #panr $pthrf
Seeking Alpha won't publish my fact check so here it is. Sorry about the length of the thread but it was written for a different platform. 1/

https://twitter.com/SeekingAlpha/status/1609970915483488257

"Fact check: condensate and NGLs are produced elsewhere on the North Slope. For example Exxon produces >10,000 barrels per day of condensate/NGLs and fully 7% of Conoco's ANS production is condensate/NGLs. The author states, "While the oil is easily...2/
$panr #panr $pthrf

#panr $pthrf
I've read a disappointingly large number of dreadfully ill-informed commentary following today's RNS, especially as it pertains to the differential between $panr's OIP figure of >23bbo and Schlumberger's 17.8bbo. 1/ The RNS spells out the primary reason for the differential: "Schlumberger's OIP estimates for Theta West were constrained to the project's 3D footprint with more conservative reservoir parameters than Pantheon's at the lease boundaries. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf

$panr $pthrf #panr
Some highlights from today's RNS which are being missed (deliberately or not) by commentators.
- "Schlumberger's report represents the most comprehensive model completed on evaluating the discovered oil resource and the productive potential." 1/ - "The Schlumberger model is extremely detailed, comprising c. 13 million individual three dimensional cells within the c. 153,000 acres of Pantheon's current leasehold."
- "This model is extremely comprehensive, having been developed over the past six months and...2/
$panr #panr

$panr $pthrf #panr
Some direct quotes from Canaccord (C) and WH Ireland (WHI) in response to Pantheon Resources' RNS dated 8/12/22.
- Canaccord (C): "We see these results as validations of both Pantheon's internal assessments of the very large scale of the oil-in-place...1/ ...resources and the potential well productivity. The reservoir models will significantly aid development
planning, and they are likely to form key elements of any future farm-out discussions."
- C: "We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and NPV10-risked...2/
$panr $pthrf #panr

$pthrf
I note the increasingly desperate Josh Young has today published an article on $panr on Seeking Alpha. In it, he attempts to derive a fair valuation for #panr by using the price bid per acre in the recent State of Alaska North Slope lease auction and applying...1/ ...that figure to $panr's total acreage. Deary me, this is facile stuff from Josh, genuinely immature if I'm being blunt. Perhaps Josh is getting grief from MW, Mangrove et al for bouncing them into a non-researched short?!
Here's the thing, if we apply Josh's logic to..2/
#panr

$pthrf
Thread on why being short $panr as the company enters an intense period of consequential news is going up against the clear balance of probabilities.
(a) The flow test results from Alkaid-2, #panr's first production well, are imminent. The flow test will not,...1/ ...in itself, be a binary event for the $panr investment case (there are four other distinct reservoirs on #panr's acreage) but it is obvious the initial flow results from A2 will be treated in that manner by many in the market.
(b) Guidance from $pthrf management...2/

$panr $pthrf #panr @Josh_Young_
Josh - please treat this email thread with the seriousness it demands. Bison Interests is a regulated entity. You have 12 hours from the time of this tweet to correct the record otherwise I will be filing a formal complaint with the SEC. 1/ This is not a threat. This is a guarantee.
On Sept 20th this year you tweeted the following: "Directors selling millions of shares of Pantheon Resources stock, and then being "awarded" the same amount of shares. Not a good look. Not involved, no recommendation. $panr" 2/

$panr $pthrf #panr @CG_Driven
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN) – Stock down 16% - Muddy Waters short attack: Weekend press staying that Muddy Waters is in the process of a short attack on Pantheon. They have not published anything (that we can find) for the company to make any...1/ ...specific push-backs on, so in the meantime, all we can do is reiterate our thesis.
=> Well-testing remains key: I revert back to our research note from Oct 26th.
=> Alkaid#2 update - encouragement and challenges: No details beyond that the well produced..2/
$panr #panr $pthrf

@RieckKay @BurgghabenH @TwitterSupport
Dear Mr Rieck - I am sorry to inform you that @BurgghabenH has hired a private investigator in an attempt to doxx me. The private investigator and @BurgghabenH now appear to believe you are the account holder known as Scot126. 1/ @BurgghabenH has tweeted out a copy of your passport and photo and your address in the UAE. I am so sorry you have been caught up in this dreadful conduct. I don't know what's going on, what his motivation is, I just don't understand what's happening? There is a public...2/

$panr #panr #panr
There is no "gotcha" question remaining outstanding. After 12 years, $300m invested in Alaska, 6 wells and the award of two Production Units from the Dept of Natural Resources the core "known unknown" is lateral continuity.
Only Hempton thinks there's...1/ ..."no oil". Everyone else from Peel Hunt to Baker Hughes to eSeis acknowledges the Oil in Place is >23 billion barrels. The key debate prior to obtaining the empirical data is whether commercial flow can be achieved from $panr's stacked reservoirs of light 35-40 API...2/
#panr

@Josh_Young_1 @BisonInterests @contrarian8888 @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 @AlaskaPanr @MuttOil @AIMhonesty
A fellow $panr shareholder told me you made a fatuous readacross from the price bid per acre the #panr bid in the recent lease sales run by the State...1/
$pthrf ...of Alaska Dept of Natural Resources. Something about the implied valuation of $panr's total acreage being c.$6m v's a mkt cap of c.$700m? Apart from the *fact* #panr is the *only* party which possesses 3D seismic data over that area (Great Bear invested c.$80m on shooting...2/

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 Yes, I have. I'd firstly refer you to the Canaccord and WH Ireland analysts' risked/unrisked models. Canaccord has a risked NPV of 300p and WH Ireland is c.180p (from memory?). Unrisked NPVs get you to 800p-1400p per share. 1/
$panr $pthrf #panr @David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 The question you pose illustrates exactly the dilemma which $panr presents to the market. Using the traditional risked/unrisked E&P valuation methodology, the sheer scale of $panr's OIP and Technically Recoverable Resource means that even if a low risk of success..2/
#panr $pthrf

@contrarian8888 $pthrf
A thread on the *potential* implications of $panr proving commerciality at Alkaid-2 in the coming days. I wish to be more clear about the *upside risk* to this investment case, if proved.

- #panr has announced the discovery of an oil accumulation...1/ ...in excess of 23 billion barrels of Oil in Place just 20 miles south of Deadhorse, Alaska. Independent validation of this data has come from the State of Alaska’s Dept of Natural Resources, eSeis, Lee Keeling & Assoc, AHS Baker Hughes and Schlumberger. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf

@oilmutt @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 Hi Oil Muff - merger was completed 21/1/19.
Remember pre-merger, Vision LLC was owner/operator in East Texas. Agreed? Leases were in Vision's name, look at the records. The principal of Vision, Bobby Gray, sadly died (Google him) and Jay had to step in on behalf of $PANR to...1/ @oilmutt @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 ...ensure all regulatory functions could continue. The Gray Estate was involved but because they had no access to finance following Bobby's death, they were no longer a functioning part of the Vision/#panr jv. $panr even stepped in and paid the salaries of the half dozen...2/

$panr $pthrf #panr @Josh_Young_1 @oilmutt @EnergyHobbs @contrarian8888 #eft #oott #Com
Some fact checks for Josh and the Josh Bros like Oil Mutt.
1) Josh refers to mud slinging when it was he who started this exchange by insinuating equivalence between the conduct of...1/ ...@PantheonResour1 and the Bre-X scandal. Josh did not provide a single sentence of evidence to back up his outrageous and highly unethical tweet.
2) Josh appears to believe @oilmutt is some kind of O&G super-sleuth. He urges his Bros not to let Oil Mutt have...2/
$panr $pthrf

#panr $pthrf @Josh_Young_1
What else did we learn from today's RNS?
A) the 30 stage frack of the Alkaid-2 lateral was completed over the weekend. Thus insider sales announced last week (c.11% of the three directors' combined gross exposure to $panr's equity)...1/ ...occurred during a period when flow testing had not commenced. Thus the company's lawyers and Canaccord (UK NOMAD) signed off on the sales. I fully appreciate the wisdom/timing of the sales is a fair debating point but the whole "those dodgy... 2/
$panr $pthrf #panr

#panr $pthrf @Josh_Young_1
Excellent operational update from $panr a few minutes ago. Amusingly one of the Josh bros thought his "Gotcha!" moment had arrived when he stated with utter conviction that the (30) multi-stage fracks ought to take no longer than "3-5 days"....1/ ....the $panr BoD have been caught lying.
So I say to all the Josh bros, read the RNS. By all means be sceptical AF but at least now accept it has been the model from Day 1 that in order to deliver commerciality $pthrf was, is and will be relying on multi-stage fracks...2/

@mfwarder "Screed" Really, Matt? Brilliant take.
Where's your tweet upbraiding Josh who ***without a scintilla of evidence*** tweets out to his 57k followers a clear insinuation of equivalence between the Bre-X scandal and that of the $panr BoD? 1/ @mfwarder I've traded the market long/short for decades and not once have I felt it necessary or ethical to seed a public forum or any other forum with evidence-less insinuations of fraud. Here's an idea for all of Josh's libertarian style traders. Tell me the name of a long position...2/

@JCarney2012
Hi Joseph - I fear you have mischaracterised my exchange with Josh. Josh insinuated on a public forum *without providing any evidence* an equivalence between the Bre-X scandal and PANR management. I've been in the equity markets since 1994 and I felt Josh had....1/ ....crossed the line and deserved to be called out for his conduct. In the course of our tete a tete it became crystal clear Josh hasn't done an ounce of fundamental research and, disturbingly for a fund manager, had completely misunderstood the mechanics of the....2/