Thread by @HeracleanVision

🧵The AZ governor's race is still yet to be called, but it looks like Lake is going to lose. People have been understandably focussed on the Senate race both in that side and nationally, but in my view this is a far more important defeat and has major consequences going forward.

Lake fought a strong campaign, but was unable to overcome the unprecedented ballot harvesting operation (83% of votes estimated to be Early / Absentee by ABC News) and likely widespread voter fraud and suppression, not to mention her opponent running the election as SoS.

This is also the reason why Laxalt was defeated in NV (where 79% of ballots were cast early) and Oz was defeated in PA. No excuse postal voting, ballot harvesting, and / or early voting are also permitted in GA, MI, and even FL.

Lake's defeat means that the Arizona electoral system will continue to function as it has since 2020, and that Republicans will be unable to win any statewide election in the foreseeable future. The same is true of any state where such rules persist.

This is my estimation of the current electoral map as it stands. Whilst NV and GA are currently unwinnable, both have GOP governors who could - but may not - change this by 2024. Regardless, the Democrats have now guaranteed victory in 270 EVs worth of States.

This means that it is now no longer possible for Republicans to win the presidency under current conditions. It may be possible to retake the Senate in 2024 by flipping two or more of MT, WI, OH, WV, and possibly NV - but the Presidency is now a DNC Sinecure.

As we saw under the Obama regime, the Presidency no longer requires a majority in the legislature to govern. Expect to see a continued rise in the use of executive orders, and potentially increased conflict between the regime and the currently conservative-majority Supreme Court.

Obviously, this has substantial implications for the strategic landscape of US politics. The only issue for Republicans at a federal level going forward is election integrity. Nothing matters other than this.

All politics going forward is metapolitics. The battle for control of federal offices will now occur in the legislatures and the courthouses, not at the ballot box. Elections will be won by those who manage procedural outcomes - campaigns will be virtually irrelevant.

The good news is that this frees the right from the unceasing struggle between tactical and strategic victories, as the former are no longer plausible. Focus can be put solely into beneficially escalating the conflict without regard for short-term electoral consequences.

(This is the part where I issue a mea culpa over my brief period of advocacy for DeSantis. We all make mistakes. Given the above description, there is only one man for the job of GOP nominee in 2024...)

It is no longer viable to win by having good candidates and a popular message. GOP cannot win the Presidency in 2024 or beyond under current conditions. Decisions now should be taken wrt of developing America's cold civil war to our advantage, not winning particular elections.

Political energy now must be spent solely on destroying the Republican establishment and turning the GOP into a fully insurgent party. I for one hope that Blake Masters is acquainting himself with the Kentucky housing market - I hear Lexington is beautiful this time of year.

Useful discussion now must centre on how the right of the GOP can demolish the GOPe, and how it must develop as it does so.

The conflict is going to intensify, and things are going to get rough, but we must ensure it does so to our advantage - the only way out is through.