Thread by @DefMon3

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I skipped yesterday because of all the rumors, I knew I would just be flooded with questions about bullshit rumors.

Previous thread

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1591867096405004289

Shellings were reported all along the active front line.

Great daily weather report by @davidhelms570
We might see some snow soon. If we get significant a decent snow cover, it will take longer for the ground to freeze. I think it's unlikely the ground will get frozen during the next week/ten days.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1592504898280919042

Svatove
The AFU repulsed an attack around Novoselivs'ke. UA forces are slowly destroying RU positions and morale in this area.

I believe an AFU breakthrough is possible in the Savtove-Kreminna area. But I'm not sure AFU would be able to exploit it more than liberating more than one village at a time with current weather/terrain conditions.

Bakhmut
Bilohorivka has been the main focus for RuAF during the last week or so. They had some initial success, and claimed capture of the village. As per usual, it was not true as they keep attacking that village.

They also claimed to have cleared out the last of Bakhmuts'ke a few weeks ago. This has also proven to be a lie.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bilohorivka Bakhmuts'ke and Bakhmut.

Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Novokalynove, Pervomais'ke, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka and Vremivka
Pavlivka has not been captured by the Russians. I'm not even sure they want to stay there.

Thigs are likely to get better for the UA forces along the Bakhmut/Donetsk front. Reinforcements are starting to arrive from the Kherson region. This will change the artillery balance in AFUs favor.

After yesterdays flood of rumors it seems to have calmed down a bit. RU forces still hold the left bank of the Dnipro. I suspect they are scaling down the troop presence in the area within 155mm range.

I would have smaller recon teams close to the river and have rapid response forces just out of artillery range. Ukraine will not launch a river crossing operation in a few hours time, the Russians will have time to respond even if they are 20-30km away.

To clarify, AFU presence in

Kiburn peninsula: Myth
Hola Prystan': Myth
Nova Kakhovka: Myth
Oleshky: Myth

Did I miss one? If so it will be: Myth
I'm not even sure SOF are operating in the area. It is possible, but in very small teams I would think.

While I was buys writing this, Information emerged about Russian missiles killing two people in Poland.
I do not think article 5 will be invoked, this is most likely unintentional and no one will risk a nuclear war over 2 stray missiles.

Article 4 is very likely.

And ofc article 5 would not automatically mean nuclear war. But I see no reason to call for A5 as I don't think an offensive military response will be on the table.
I do think there will be discussions about how to strengthen Poland's defense.

I'm almost certain there is a prepared plan for how to handle a situation like this.