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Balaji Profile picture
@balajis
Nov 15, 2022 • 11 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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The net result of FTX is that billions of dollars was stolen from crypto investors to give to Democrat-aligned politicians, nonprofits, and journalists.

This is why there may be no prosecution.
Why is SBF so protected?

Why is everyone from SEC to NYT running interference for him?

He was basically Soros junior — just with stolen customer money — and evidently bought off the entire media, nonprofit, political, and regulatory establishment.
archive.ph/HYdcM
The author is a born-rich journo. So he knows Bankman-Fried’s milieu.

And the overall picture you get is of rats scurrying around now that SBF’s money has been cut off — and very much not wanting defrauded crypto investors to clawback those stolen funds.
archive.ph/HYdcM
The stage is set for an absolutely insane zero-sum match.

On one side, one million crypto investors robbed of ten billion dollars by SBF.

On the other side, a network of dark money Democrats who will fight to keep as much of those stolen funds as possible.

The fur will fly.
The bankruptcy case may play out on social media.

Crypto investors seeking to get FTX funds back may hire lawyers like Irving Picard, who clawed back ~75 cents on the dollar for Madoff victims.

And who would they claw it back from? The groups SBF funded.
archive.ph/Uzsos
The fundamental question is: when did SBF start stealing from customers, and how much did he steal?

This can only be answered by forensic accounting.

The headline amount given to Democrat politicians of $37M+ understates it. FTX Foundation alone was $190M.

How much was stolen?
We need a list of all the “donations” SBF made, potentially with stolen money. Here are at least four:

- $69M in political donations, mostly to Democrats, some to Republicans via his subordinate
- $190M to a foundation
- $128M to a PAC
- Undisclosed amount (!)

There’s more…
All kinds of obfuscation games have been played here. Donations made with possibly stolen funds. Numbers that are publicly known may just be the tip of the iceberg.

Where did the ten billion go? How much was stolen? And when was it stolen?
The Crypto Clawback

Anyone with money on FTX may want to learn the following terms:

- clawback
- lookback
- fraudulent conveyance
- unjust enrichment
- voidable preference

Ask a lawyer. You may be able to recover funds by pursuing the organizations SBF “donated” your money to.
This is why the establishment has been so muted on SBF!

It’s because one million crypto investors might clawback billions of dollars, by pursuing the many nonprofits, politicians, and media corporations SBF “donated” their money to.
Ask a lawyer. If FTX stole your money, you may be able to sell your bankruptcy claim.

An investor might buy claims for X cents on the dollar, taking on the risk of getting Y>X at a future date.

For $10B, many groups SBF “donated” to could be pursued. lowenstein.com/media/6418/nat…

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More from @balajis

Balaji Profile picture
Sep 8
Both America and China were invested in the illusion that China wasn't already the world's strongest economy.

Psychologically, it suited the incumbent to appear strong. So America downplayed China's numbers.

Strategically, it suited the disruptor to appear weak. So China also sandbagged its own numbers.

But the illusion is becoming harder to maintain.Image
In retrospect, all the China cope over the last decade or so was really just the stealth on the Chinese stealth bomber.

Hide your strength and bide your time was Deng's strategy. Amazingly, denying China's strength somehow also became America's strategy.

For example, all the cope on China's demographics somehow being uniquely bad...when they have 1.4B+ people that crush every international science competition with minimal drug addiction, crime, or fatherlessness...and when their demographic problems have obvious robotic solutions.

Or, for another example, how MAGA sought to mimic China's manufacturing buildout and industrial policy without deeply understanding China's strengths in this area, which is like competing with Google by setting up a website. Vague references to 1945 substituted for understanding the year 2025.

One consequence of the cope is that China knows far more about America's strengths than vice versa. Surprisingly few Americans interested in re-industrialization have ever set foot in Shenzhen. Those who have, like @Molson_Hart, understand what modern China actually is.

Anyway, what @DoggyDog1208 calls the "skull chart" is the same phenomenon @yishan and I commented on months ago. Once China truly enters a vertical, like electric cars or solar, their pace of ascent[1] is so rapid that incumbents often don't even have time to react.

Now apply this at country level. China has flipped America so quickly on so many axes[2], particularly military ones like hypersonics or military-adjacent ones like power, that it can no longer be contained.

A major contributing factor was the dollar illusion. All that money printing made America think it was richer than China. And China was happy to let America persist in the illusion. But an illusion it was. Yet another way in which Keynesianism becomes the epitaph of empire.

[1]: asiatimes.com/2025/07/thucyd…
[2]: x.com/balajis/status…Image
Image
Image
Image
Well, it's not the idea, it's the execution.

China can just sit back and let the world be its Xerox PARC. And then become a speedy second mover on anything that's working.

So you need innovations China genuinely can't copy.
One of them is Bitcoin.
Read 7 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Sep 1
The dollar is losing reserve currency status. It’s down to 42% of global reserves, and gold is rapidly rising. Image
Digital gold is becoming the reserve currency of the individual.

Gold is returning as the reserve currency of the state.

Original post below.
Recall the Fed admitted that a “small number” of countries were switching to gold.

But that small number actually included Russia, India, and China: the RIC of BRICS.
Read 6 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Aug 18
On many graphs of the physical world, China is in first place by a wide margin.

But if you look more closely, India is a distant but real runner up. Image
Image
The same pattern holds in nuclear.
China is #1 in reactors under construction.
But India is in second place. Image
Electricity generation is similar.

China’s recent increase is unparalleled in history. But India is increasing quickly, and will flip the EU soon. Image
Read 7 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Aug 6
There are now two kinds of AI retards.

The first kind of retard uses AI everywhere, even where it shouldn’t be used.

The second kind of retard sees AI everywhere, even where it isn’t used.
Usually, it’s obvious what threads are and aren’t AI-written.

But some people can’t tell the difference between normal writing and AI writing. And because they can’t tell the difference, they’ll either overuse AI…or accuse others of using AI!

What we actually may need are built-in statistical AI detectors for every public text field. Paste in a URL into an archive.is-like interface and get back the probability that any div on the page is AI-generated.

In general my view is that AI text shouldn’t be used raw. It’s like a search engine result, it’s lorem ipsum. Useful for research but not final results. AI code is different, but even that requires review. AI visuals are different still, and you can sometimes use them directly.

We’re still developing these conventions, as the tech itself is of course a moving target. But it is interesting that even technologists (who see the huge time-savings that AI gives for, say, data analysis or vibe coding) are annoyed by AI slop. Imagine how much the people who don’t see the positive parts of AI may hate AI.

TLDR: slop is the new spam, and we’ll need new tools and conventions to defeat it.
I agree email spammers will keep adapting.

But I don’t know if a typical poster will keep morphing their content in such a way.
Read 5 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Jul 25
JP Morgan is updating their p(doom), but for the dollar. Image
Just the fact that JPMC is now admitting this is a big step.

"De-dollarization has increasingly become a substantive topic of discussion among investors, corporates and market participants more broadly."

As the US deglobalizes, the globe dedollarizes.
jpmorgan.com/insights/globa…Image
Yes, but no manufacturing economy can be realistically stood up in time to replace the sheer consumption that money-printing enables.

Example: to make $1T, you can (a) print or (b) sell $1000 phones to 1B people. Obviously, the former is far easier.
Image
Read 4 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Jun 4
AI PROMPTING → AI VERIFYING

AI prompting scales, because prompting is just typing.

But AI verifying doesn’t scale, because verifying AI output involves much more than just typing.

Sometimes you can verify by eye, which is why AI is great for frontend, images, and video. But for anything subtle, you need to read the code or text deeply — and that means knowing the topic well enough to correct the AI.

Researchers are well aware of this, which is why there’s so much work on evals and hallucination.

However, the concept of verification as the bottleneck for AI users is under-discussed. Yes, you can try formal verification, or critic models where one AI checks another, or other techniques. But to even be aware of the issue as a first class problem is half the battle.

For users: AI verifying is as important as AI prompting.
I love everything @karpathy has done to popularize vibe coding.

But then after you prototype with vibe coding, you need to get to production with right coding.

And that means AI verifying, not just AI prompting. That’s easy when output is visual, much harder when it’s textual.
@karpathy The question when using AI is: how can I inexpensively verify the output of this AI model is correct?

We take for granted the human eye, which is amazing at finding errors in images, videos, and user interfaces.

But we need other kinds of verifiers for other domains.
Read 4 tweets

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