Thread by @fleroy1974

So we now have this remarkable headline: "red meat is not a health risk", referring to work by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME):
bigthink.com/health/red-mea…
However, there's some prehistory to this story, which you may find interesting...
Thread 🧵 1/n

IHME is also behind the so-called Global Burden of Disease study, published in The Lancet. Recently, they came up with a revision of the data on red meat
2/n thelancet.com/journals/lance…

Bomb shell! Their 2019 revision contradicts the available evidence from the existing major studies & claims a massive increase in deaths attributable to unprocessed red meat, by no less than 36-fold! Without justification. At least, nothing credible.
3/n

The trick? GBD/IHME have decided to reduce the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (= safe intake level) of red meat to ZERO !?!
4/n
healthdata.org/results/gbd_su…

They also claimed "causal" relationships, again without showing evidence. In protest, we wrote a letter to the Lancet (which was a painful process, but it eventually got published)
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thelancet.com/journals/lance…

Murray, lead GBD/IHME scientist, replied - admitting (some) problems. Interesting!
6/n
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

Another team of authors (WCRF-linked) then joined us in our criticism:
7/n
foodnavigator.com/Article/2022/0…

Their letter:
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thelancet.com/journals/lance…

Criticism started to come from various respectable corners:
9/n

https://twitter.com/GuyattGH/status/1508549493775646726?s=20&t=wdvBO46wxPI6VJJN8VxqHA

Then - new bombshell - to our astonishment, IHME publishes this 👇, which is the study that forms the basis for the article in the first tweet of this thread. Pretty much a turnaround of 180° (or almost).
10/n
nature.com/articles/s4159…

Nice, science back on track (or almost). But the key point now is - given all this - what should happen to the original Global Burden of Disease study in @TheLancet, given its substantial impact on policy making globally?

#Retraction would be the logical outcome.
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