Very hard to know what sort of vote some parties will get, eg ON and UAP which polled substantially at the federal election but may not be making as much effort this time.
Also question of how much Legalise Cannabis might eat into any Green gains that would otherwise occur.
Already seeing reminders of what rubbish this system is. In SEM my first attempt elected Hinch. When I took 1% off the Greens he was replaced by Legalise Cannabis.
Already seeing reminders of what rubbish this system is. In SEM my first attempt elected Hinch. When I took 1% off the Greens he was replaced by Legalise Cannabis.
The reason for this is that Labor prefs flow to L Cannabis vs Hinch but flow to Hinch vs Greens and there is a point where L Cannabis and Greens were close. Nothing like this will necessarily occur, it was just one scenario.
I didn't find Barton as much of a sure thing as initial estimates suggested either; took me three goes to elect him. Two issues (i) potential exclusion early in count (ii) Labor perhaps not having a surplus
Need to remember when using the calculators that they assume all votes are ATL. Some votes are not ATL especially in N Met. As a general rule if a party comes from nothing much and narrowly wins there's a fair chance that BTLs knock that over.
In N Met all my early attempts "elected" a left micro (either Reason or Vic Socialists) but Somyurek also looks at least competitive.
My first few runs of W Met all had Bernie Finn (DLP) winning by heaps.
N Vic I keep getting AJP, I sometimes get Quilty (LDP) as well but the L-NP prefs going to ON is a potential problem for LDP there (unless L-NP do badly.)
E Vic I keep getting Shooters (and sometimes L Cannabis as well but that bit's not very trustworthy.)
E Vic I keep getting Shooters (and sometimes L Cannabis as well but that bit's not very trustworthy.)
Interested in any observations of how Vic Socialists are going in terms of campaign activity etc. They had a very good vote in N Met last time but that was with Jolly as candidate; they went backwards in some strong seats at the federal election.
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