The majority of deforestation is driven by farming, meaning we can't separate nature from farming ourworldindata.org/deforestation
But it's not just forests. Peatlands - wet soils (that are sometimes beneath forests) are critical too. In fact they hold more carbon than the world's forests.
And in a healthy condition all of these habitats absorb carbon, rather than releasing it. It's only when they're damaged or destroyed that they make big climate contributions.
Farming that works with nature ("agro-ecology") can also help farmers cope w/climate impacts
In the UK, a small-ish % of emissions come from the land (forests overall absorb carbon, but UK peatlands are damaged and emitting a bit more, along with farmed fields, leading to an overall (net) release of emissions to the atmosphere). theccc.org.uk/publication/si…
The UK Govt has ambitions to restore nature - esp. peat and trees - and to reward farmers for cutting carbon and producing food more sustainably.
According to a new @wwf report greenhouse gas emissions that ended up in the atmosphere would have been 2x over last 10 years without nature absorbing them
This adaptation to climate impacts is one of the most important roles of nature in the UK too: rspb.org.uk/globalassets/d…
But a new report suggests countries are betting too much on how much they'll be able to rely on nature (often to avoid cutting emissions from other sectors) as a way to meet emissions goals.
In total they'd need:
- 633 million hectares for reforestation - could be good, could be bad. Could involve taking land out of producing food.
- 551 million hectares restoring natural habitats.
Combined total - 1.2 billion, is the same as all current global cropland.
There's also debate over offsetting rules - some are worried that assuming that removals of carbon by nature are permanent. Climate change impacts like wildfires mean this isn't a safe bet any more. #Article6
At #COP27 many observers, and countries, are asking for the final text to refer to the December UN biodiversity summit.
But some countries are pushing back saying this isn't the done thing. Seems more like convention rather than genuine rationale.
Experts hearing some countries don't want any risk of buck being passed outside this process to other processes.
But if this climate COP refers to the nature one, will give strong signal of need for that one to succeed.
Might also help with getting world leaders there and adding stardust of political gravitas & momentum.
To achieve net zero, the meeting in December needs to be a success and set out ambitious 2030 deal for restoring nature.
China, host of the December nature meeting, could help if it threw weight behind such a reference.
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Avoided emissions - claiming some emissions that would have happened now won't (e.g. that forest over there was going to be cut down, now it won't - devilishly hard to prove) - back on table.
This zombie concept won't die & is bad news for integrity of carbon markets
In Article 6.4 avoided emissions also back on table.
No rules on removals (whether carbon taken out of atmosphere stays out) - supervisory body is asked to go away and come back with recommendations on these.
There has been a lot of reporting of the Government's new Food Strategy, including some confusion and mis-reporting because a draft was leaked last week and it was superseded by final version which was different.
The new version of #Article6 has been published this morning. Some 🔑 points:
1⃣ overall the text looks stronger and could avoid some of the worst risks of double counting
2⃣ But it doesn't completely prevent countries/companies from gaming system, continuing to pollute while using carbon credits that may provide no real climate benefit
3⃣ The hand of some countries (Japan/US) can be seen, eg in resistance to funds going to dvng country adaptation
4⃣ But all of it is in "square brackets", meaning none of it is agreed
⚡️ Reminder: Article 6 is all about how countries collaborate on emissions cuts and potentially swap/trade those efforts with one another, or even sell the credits to companies.
New #Article 6 update (based on new text out this morning):
🔑 point: this bit of negotiations is all abt honesty + ambition: whether countries (+ companies) want tight rules on trading emissions cuts, or want to game system by counting cuts 2x & using old carbon credits
There is still language that could allow 2x counting of a single emissions cut (creating false impression of benefit to climate).
This comes from any cuts outside a country's national climate plan not being subject to "corresponding adjustments" if those cuts are traded.
Much of this text is still Option A/B or in [ ] so in question. #COP26Glasgow