1-7 Some people got *way* too anxious about the incident in Poland. Our govts take their time and consider scenarios before using force.
Decisions to use force are the decisions that are the most controlled in any state machinery.
2-7 We did not come close to some runaway escalation, because escalation is not an unpredictable volcano, but a sequence of deliberate state decisions that one can easily back out of if one doesn't want to pursue them.
3-7 The reason why some people get very nervous around Russia is not because there's a magical force of nature called "escalation" that can burst into flames if you sneeze the wrong way.
People get nervous around Russia because it is a massively aggressive and criminal state.
4-7 Everyone who understands Russian state behaviour will tell you: the best way, the most stability-enhancing way, to deal with Russia is to be strong and to display strength, because Moscow is aggressive, i.e., it seeks advantage through the use or threat of force.
5-7 So, when there is an incident that might look like trouble with Russia, like yesterday, don't show fear. Don't panic. Just be clear that what we need to do is to be confident in ourselves, in our will and determination to defend against and repel any Russian aggression.
6-7 If a minor incident occurs, our govts will respond one way. If a massive attack occurs, we'll all know it when we see it, and we will go to war. Because the alternative is to end up like Mariupol.
Those are two different worlds and our govts will never confuse the two.
1-22
I caught Calvin Robinson, @calvinrobinson, importing fringe U.S. partisan disinformation into British discourse, with the effective claim that the largest European war since 1945 has no war effort and that assistance to Ukraine is funneled back into the US Democratic Party.
2-22
I am tweeting this in the hope that someone may make this thread available to Calvin Robinson, such that he may see my initial criticism of him once again, as well as further criticism, as these are quite essential for his personal development as a man of faith.
3-22
Indeed, Mr. Calvin Robinson was ordained in a "Free Church of England" church in London this year.
(The mainstream Church of England did not want to ordain him.)
2-8 "There would be no tragedies like this if Russia hadn't attacked Ukraine in the first place"
Exactly. Whatever projectile it was (deliberate RUS, RUS off course, or UA defence off course), the fault is 100% on Russia for creating this situation which endangers us all.
3-8 "If this was a deliberate attack, there must be a measured response - not one provoking further attacks by our weakness"
That must be crystal clear. Moscow must learn that if it hits us deliberately in the smallest way, it gets hit back. Not doing so would be very foolish.
A projectile landed in Poland, killing two civilians, because Russia wages a criminal campaign of strikes on civilian targets on Ukraine. Without that campaign, the incident would not have occurred.
Recommendation: raise the cost to Russia of waging that campaign.
1-5
Russia's limiting factors are the number of offensive systems it can launch and the rate of interception.
Ukraine's interception rates are high, that needs to be sustained, but it's not enough, because Russia can overwhelm air defences by firing more.
2-5
So the solution lies in destroying Russia's means of aggression at source: taking out launch sites and systems on the ground and at sea, for starters.
Next steps: the aircraft that launch such missiles, and the factories that produce the missiles.
3-5
Every era brings forth new threats and new responses to them.
In 1942, Britain responded to German terror with massive retaliatory air raids.
Today, Ukraine needs a response against Russian terror, too.
2-7 There must come a day when a Ukrainian leader is able to say:
"The Russians entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everybody else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa, and half a hundred other places..."
3-7 "... they put that rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind. And now they are going to reap the whirlwind."
Anyone who presses for diplomatic talks now is being strategically irresponsible and is promoting a settlement that will perpetuate high danger for all of Europe.
The end state we need the Russian state to experience must be a teachable moment for it.
1-7
Success can be measured in many ways. It can also be spun. Losing 150,000 men to gain a few hundred square miles of land *can* be viewed in Moscow as a victory of sorts, and certainly not as a decisive disincentive to trying again later.
2-7
A brutal, fully visible slap, on the other hand, would teach the Russian state a lesson. And that is what Europe needs. The desired end state is that Moscow sticks to its borders *and* internalizes the notion that war of aggression is mad and far too costly.
3-7
1-4 The Russians can lose all Ukrainian territories, and even parts of their own territory, it's all well within the Russian mindset. Not caring about borders, not caring about people. So, for Crimea or the Kerch Bridge: it's a Western belief that those are crucial to Putin.
2-4 Now is a good time to give the Russian state a solid shake, a solid slap on the head. They won't do anything. They'll just carry on losing and losing. Their people don't care. Their soldiers are fed up with everything. Nothing works.
3-4 The Wagnerites are happy as long as they're killing people in grotesque ways, doesn't matter who.
Dugin already wants to assassinate Putin, which is good. Encourage him. Or assassinate him. Or put magic mushrooms in his breakfast. Doesn't really matter. Disrespect is key.