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Nov 16 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Update đź§µNovember 16th

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The Ukrainian general staff reported shellings all along the active front line. It seems the Russians are not that interested in shelling the Kherson region, which is surprising, they never miss a chance to target civilians. Image
Weather.
They changed it from cold and snow, to warm and wet.
Siversk
Russia made 6 attacks along the 700km long active front line. One of them was in the area of Bilohorivka, which hey claimed they captured already. Image
Bakhmut
No attacks were reported by Ukrainian general staff. I think that is a first. I think relocated artillery assets have a cooling effect on the Russian cannon fodder. đźš— Image
Donetsk
The complete failure of the RuAF attack on Pavlivka seems to have redirected their attention to Avdiivka.
RuAF repulsed attacks around Novokalynove, Vesele, Avdiivka, Vodyane and Pervomais'ke. Image
According Alexander Khodakovsky, the Russians pulled units from other front sections and threw them straight in to Pavlivka without shaping operations. He calls it a furnace. (assuming I understand the translation correct)
pastebin.com/daTGnZuA
t.me/aleksandr_skif…
In another post he talked about how some guy shot up a commander. I'm not sure when this was, but brothers morale does not seem high.

"But there were cases completely out of the ordinary ... Of the most resonant - the execution of one of the mobilized commander."
Not really much going on in Kherson, Russians are getting slapped by artillery, but that is about it.
I think we all learned something yesterday, lets try to do better next time.

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More from @DefMon3

Nov 15
Update đź§µNovember 15th

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I skipped yesterday because of all the rumors, I knew I would just be flooded with questions about bullshit rumors.

Previous thread
Shellings were reported all along the active front line. Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 13
Update đź§µNovember 13th

This presentation is brought to you by Kimdotcom and Dr. Evil.

I really did not have anythign prepared, so I had to use what was in front of me.

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Shellings
Read 11 tweets
Nov 12
Update đź§µNovember 12th

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The Ukrainian general staff reported shellings all along the active frontline. There are also some shellings on the right Bank of the Dnipro in northern Kherson region. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 11
đź§µKherson
Some people seems confused about the Ukrainian victory in Kherson.

It is important to understand the strategy and the goals.

The goal was to liberate the area, not to kill as many Russians as possible or to destroy as much infrastructure as possible.
Statement regarding the first hits on the Antonivsky Bridge
The liberation of Kherson is the result of 3 months of attrition warfare. Continued attacks on the Russian ground lines of communications was at the end too much for Russia. To succeed this this, you also need them to spend ammo and fuel. They spend ammo and fuel during combat.
Read 21 tweets
Nov 11
Update đź§µNovember 11th

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Shellings reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
Kherson region is looking quite strange for obvious reasons.
Read 20 tweets
Nov 10
I get a lot of questions about the Russian retreat.
Why would they announce the retreat before they leave?
Why would they announce it on TV?
Here is what I believe:
The retreat has been going on for weeks.
There is only a small number of troops left east of the river, mostly lower valued units like mobniks and goat lovers. Some will most likely be sacrificed to cover the retreat of the last units
Announcing it on TV gives the Russian leadership a chance to save face. Kadyrov and Prigozhin immediately came with statement saying Surovikin was very brave and that he saved a lot of Russian lives. This announcement was purely for domestic propaganda.
Read 5 tweets

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