NEW on #BBCNews10 sources in industry and Westminster expecting re Autumn Statement
- Energy Price Guarantee continues in a form for all households.
- bills for a typical household, from £2,500 a year now to just over £3,000. Without wd have been £4k
- big extra windfall tax
Opposition response today also very important as I said here - my hunch is that Labour will back the OBR numbers to get debt falling after 5 years as it’s manifesto baseline - ie a 2% consolidation. Echoes of 1997, Ken Clarke’s v tight spending:
Doesn’t mean Labour will back causes or cure, but could be some controversy it identifies the same basic repair job logic… from this baseline further spending would have to be funded could help with credibility in markets of todays plans, that broad path kept whoever wins GE
Obviously Ken Clarke subsequently said that he never would have kept to the spending restraint that Brown did keep to, which led to the controversial expansion of PFI etc… anyway this is why I argue that today sets the tram lines for next 5 years of politics
*** Labour likely to accept OBR numbers and 5 year timetable to reduce national debt/ GDP as baseline for manifesto
*** Chancellor Hunt promises a “shallower downturn, lower energy bills, higher long term growth” as a result of the plan…
“The Office for Budget Responsibility confirms global factors are the primary cause of current inflation. Most countries are still dealing with the fallout from a once-in-a-century pandemic.” Says Chancellor
Hunt: “Bank of England, which has done an outstanding job since its independence, now has my wholehearted support in its mission to defeat inflation and I today confirm we will not change its remit.”
Inflation measured by target CPI is at 11.1%, 5.5 times target, 41 year high, up again because of increases in energy prices, despite support. Without energy price guarantee would have been 13% plus
Food price inflation at 16.4% is at a 45 year high since Sept 1977… driven by milk and cheese etc
NEW
“Poland holds urgent National Security Meeting amid reports a stray Russian missile strike hit a farm there… The village has been named as Przewodów.”
NEW: US intelligence source reported Poland missile strike - AP
“AP says a senior US intelligence official was the source for the report about missiles hitting a Polish farm, without naming the official.” (Not confirmed by Polish Govt yet)
Former Agriculture Sec, Brexit campaigner George Eustice tells MPs:
- “the Australia trade deal is not actually a very good deal for the UK”..
- Trade Dept needs to learn from “failures” and “mistakes” which risk being repeated in “critical” negotiations with Canada & CPTPP
“Truth of the matter is UK gave away far too much for far too little in return”
“We did not need to give Australia or NZ full liberalisation in beef & sheep—not in our economic interest to do so, & neither Au nor NZ had anything to offer in return for such a grand concession”
Eustice goes on to criticize Liz Truss for allowing deal to be shaped by asks of Australian negotiator who he says she asked to list what he’d need to conclude a deal in time for the “arbitrary target” of 2021 G7 summit in Cornwall which “shattered our own negotiating position”
Chancellor Hunt… to @bbclaurak: “we want as short and as shallow a recession as possible, but we cant do nothing, we saw what happened with the mini Budget” and interest rates and mortgage costs could go up…
“I’ve been explicit that taxes are going to go up” says Chancellor asked by Laura why allow threshold freezes to drag tax up…
Hunt confirms that the Government will announce the replacement for the Energy Price Guarantee from April..
- this wasnt certain, as there was an argument to announce a bit later, when prices more certain etc
“We will continue to support families, and I will explain how”
UK economy shrinks by 0.2% in Q3 2022, though fall smaller than expected…
Bigger picture - overall size of economy still smaller than pre-pandemic, and forecasters including BoE expect this to be the start of a run of a few falling quarters a = start of prolonged recession
*Japan official number expected Monday, 0.3% is consensus forecast
Can’t blame “global problems” alone…clearly UK specific issues in the response to global challenges, given the UK hasnt grown since Q4 2019, uniquely in G7, since actual Brexit too, and during this Parliament…