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Nov 17 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Tweet I quote-tweeted has disappeared but there are other reports that the teals have won their appeal against the VEC over how-to-vote cards. VCAT may have overturned 2018 Sheed ruling, will be interesting to see the judgement. #VicVotes
Pleased to see this because if the VEC and previous VCAT reading of the law was correct then the law would have been a donkey. No evidence the cards cause informal voting and even if they do it only hurts the candidate using them.
For a detailed discussion of why there is no evidence these cards shift the informal rate in either direction see my article here:

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/firing…
VEC can still appeal to Supreme Court.

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More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 17
This is disingenuous garbage from Premier Andrews. His own MPs on Electoral Matters passed the buck back to the Parliament to commission a review into GTV in the previous term and his own government then failed to start that review. #VicVotes

theage.com.au/politics/victo…
You could only think the matter of Group Ticket Voting was not in sharp focus after at least a fifth of the parliament was elected undeservedly in 2018 - resulting in a deluge of submissions - if you were a politician with severe vision problems.
It is also hypocritical for the Liberals to say they would refer Labor to IBAC as the Liberals should also be investigated over claims made in the video. In particular, whether a desire to avoid upsetting Druery resulted in them abandoning a previous anti_GTV position.
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 16
Woohoo!

#VicVotes
Could not come at a better time after all that on-tilt whinging about being deceived by the Animal Justice Party.

Now ratted on by the Angry Victorians as well. We love to see it.
Interesting - Druery says he had a Liberal contact come to him seeking help and said they would have to commit to not ending GTV.

His word for it and says they said no but this should be investigated further given the Libs' in(s)ane contribution to the GTV debate last year.
Read 13 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 16
Legislative Council calculators are up:

#VicVotes

abc.net.au/news/elections…
Very hard to know what sort of vote some parties will get, eg ON and UAP which polled substantially at the federal election but may not be making as much effort this time.
Also question of how much Legalise Cannabis might eat into any Green gains that would otherwise occur.

Already seeing reminders of what rubbish this system is. In SEM my first attempt elected Hinch. When I took 1% off the Greens he was replaced by Legalise Cannabis.
Read 10 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 15
Neil Mitchell says he has been leaked internal ALP polling with the following:

Loss: Oakleigh, Hawthorn, Point Cook, Albert Park
In danger: Werribee
Close: Mulgrave

No numbers so nothing to analyse here. #VicVotes
Internal polling "leaks" often turn out to be nonsense as they can be (i) expectation management (ii) disgruntled elements (iii) tiny samples (iv) incorrectly analysed (v) in some cases simply fictitious. Nonetheless noted to see how it goes post-election.
Oakleigh is on 16% and without a high-profile non-classic contender so this is sounding like a #pollshapedobject
Read 7 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 12
Controversy over VEC interpretations regarding how-to-vote cards for independents.

abc.net.au/news/2022-11-1…

#VicVotes
This seems unsatisfactory. Sheed v VEC (austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdo…?) found “Then number Every Box" is not sufficient but the VEC guide implies "a statement to instruct the voter
to number all the boxes." is OK?vec.vic.gov.au/-/media/3b00f7… #VicVotes
I mean, what more is Frederico supposed to do, her card already tells voters they must number all boxes *twice*, does she need to say it a third time and get her lawyer to send the VEC a copy of The Hunting Of The Snark?
Read 14 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 12
As expressed this is a completely absurd statement by whoever said it since Labor seats going to the Greens will make absolutely no difference to who forms government and will categorically not boost the Liberals' chances - if they exist - in any way.
A more intelligent way to defend it would be to say that they were forcing Labor to fight harder to defend those seats. But even that's not all that logical since two of them looked like very serious fights anyway. #VicVotes
(Note these are only how to vote recommendations, not preferencing in the sense of the upper house, but in the case of Liberal how to votes it can make a sizeable difference. Not a huge difference since the Liberal vote in eg Northcote is barely double figures, but a few %.)
Read 4 tweets

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