In today's #vatnik soup, I'll introduce a man who has worked mostly behind the scenes - Vladislav Surkov. Some of you might not even recognize the name, but he's the main architect of both the polarizing disinformation program and the annexation system of 🇷🇺. 1/9
Many perceive Surkov as a key figure behind Putin's power and P. Pomerantsev gave him the nickname "Putin's Rasputin". Vladislav was the key figure in putting Kadyrov to his current position (Kadyrov calls him his "sworn brother" and even has a picture of
him on the wall). 2/9
Surkov's approach to geopolitics comes through theatre - he studied theatre direction for 3 years and he's an excellent dramaturg. He is also closely related to a movement called "political technology", which is often referred as "a industry of political manipulation".
3/9
All those fake elections with 99% approval rate originate from this movement and especially Surkov.
Surkov's idea was to make the world of politics into an avantgardist theatre.He suggested that Russia would finance fringe, extreme groups both from the far-left and from the far-right, thus provoking polarization and conflicts. He was also behind Putin's youth movement Nashi.5/9
The goal with this was to destabilize the West so that they'd be stuck on their internal conflicts (BLM is a great example). And then he did something nobody expected - he admitted to all this. Surkov's goal was to confuse people and make them doubt EVERYTHING. 6/9
Former FSB officer Igor Girkin (the guy who was responsible for the shotdown of MH17, killing 298 people and was the de facto military commander of separatist troops in Donbas) has stated that Surkov played a decisive role in the creation of the fake country of Donbas. 7/9
In Donbas, he acted like any theatre director would: he cast actors, wrote scripts, reviewed people's "performances" and ran promotions, thus creating false credibility for the Donbas "separatists", who were actually just Putin's sock puppets voicing Moscow's goals. 8/9
We know all this from Vladislav's e-mails that were leaked back in 2016: nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…
At some point Surkov became a liability, and in 2020 he was removed from his position of advisor. In April 2022 he was put under house arrest for embezzlement. 9/9
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In today’s (first) Debunk of the Day, we’ll talk about… “realistic expectations”.
Russia has the GDP of Italy. NATO — which Russia claims to be fighting — has 20 times their GDP, and a much stronger and more modern military. 1/5
Russia’s full scale invasion was supposed to take 2 days, but we’re nearing 4 years. They’ve lost a million men. Their economy is in shambles.
And yet we're letting them set their red lines instead of massive sanctions, strong support for Ukraine, and an immediate sky shield. 2/5
Russia thought their war was “realistic” because we’d let them get away with it. It wouldn’t be “realistic” to invade a European nation and redraw borders by force if the West had a strong and united response.
What’s “realistic” is what public opinion tolerates and accepts. 3/5
In this first (and maybe last?) Basiji Soup, we’ll look at… the Islamic Republic of Iran, its disinformation operations, its hypocrisy, how it sells its atrocities as virtue and its repression as morality, how it serves the Kremlin, and the current protests against it.
1/20
Basijis are members of the most fanatical part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In a broader sense: Iranian regime loyalists & propagandists. They may be fewer than vatniks or wumaos, but the goal is the same: destabilize the West to protect a brutal regime.
2/20
The regime oppressing Iran is a “theocratic” authoritarian state around a “Supreme Leader” hiding behind religion to justify its crimes: censorship, repression, executions, torture and terror — similar to Russia and its “holy war” against Ukraine.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, we introduce our first Czech vatnik, Tomio Okamura. He’s best known for building a political career on xenophobia while being of mixed origins himself, and for pushing Kremlin narratives in Czechia, a country otherwise very supportive of Ukraine.
1/19
Okamura was born in Tokyo in 1972 to a Japanese-Korean father and Czech mother. He spent part of his childhood in Japan, and part in a Czechoslovak foster home where he was heavily bullied. His mixed origins made it difficult for him to fit in either country.
2/19
Nonetheless, after working odd jobs in Japan, Tomio returned to Czechia and became a successful entrepreneur in Japanese tourism. He then rose in politics: Senator in 2012, MP in 2013, he founded two parties: Dawn of Direct Democracy and SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy).
In today’s Vatnik Soup, we’ll introduce an American billionaire, real estate developer, and wannabe diplomat, Steve Witkoff. He’s best known for trying to sell Ukraine to Putin and for helping Trump sell this treason and encouragement of genocidal war as “peace”.
1/20
Steve studied law and political science at Hofstra University in New York. After law school, he worked as a real estate attorney, which led him into property acquisitions and development. He first met Trump in the 1980s when Trump was a client of his real estate law firm.
2/20
In 1997, Witkoff founded the Witkoff Group, a New York–based real estate development and investment firm. The firm has owned and developed dozens of properties in New York and other major US cities, making Witkoff quite wealthy, with some interesting business connections.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, our first on a non-human vatnik, we’ll talk about… Grok @grok. It’s best known for turning into Mecha-Hitler and Mecha-Putler and for defending its vatnik master, Elon Musk, at all costs, up to being willing to sacrifice the rest of mankind for him.
1/24
Let’s start with an introduction into how Large Language Models (LLMs) work, and the new “arguing with your toaster” phenomenon. LLMs like Grok are Artificial Intelligence (AI) but not the way we had imagined — a new form of intelligence that would somehow think like us.
2/24
Instead, LLMs are basically “guessing engines” and search engines trained on a massive dataset to give you the output you expect: they are imitating intelligence rather than being an actual intelligence. They’re chatbots generating responses pretending to be a helpful AI.
Robert Amsterdam is also a registered (and well-paid!) agent of Maduro’s Venezuela, the socialist regime and ally of Russia which Tucker Carlson has recently defended for some reason, shocking many of his right-wing supporters.