François Valentin Profile picture
Nov 17, 2022 27 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Italians often joke that the North and the South of the boot are different countries.

But you would've been able to spot this North/South divide centuries ago!

A 🧵 on Italy that goes from Ancient Greece to Beppe Grillo (with some food sprinkled along the way) Image
Starting with some history:

The south ("Magna Graecia") was settled by greeks from 8th to 5th century BC who founded cities like Neapolis (Naples).

They connected the south to their Mediterraenean network and probably surpassed the motherland in population Image
To this day the genetic admixture of Southern Italians is very similar to modern Greeks.

In contrast Northern Italians are much closer to Spain or Southern France as they share more of the Indo-European admixture. ImageImage
Let's get a little less abstract: Northern Italians are more likely to have fair hair and eyes. Percentage of Italians with...Image
The Roman Empire united Italy politically, but after its collapse Italy would wait for unification for centuries.

The North would come under under the influence of Charlemagne's empire (the future Holy Roman empire) when it defeated the Germanic Lombards in 774. Image
The South saw a massive power struggle. The byzantine held major influence in the South, even well after it peaked in the 6th century under Justinian. Image
Arab Kingdoms also shaped those areas, especially Siciliy, with the Aghlabids Dynasty in the 9th century having a strong foothold. Even when they did not hold direct political power in those areas, Arabs impacted the aread influential through trade and razzias. Image
The Normans in the end ended up as the victors in the South. The Norman kingdom eventually became (after a very complicated history) the Kingdom of the two Sicilies. Image
In practice, the Holy Roman Empir's hold on the north was limited, and the North splintered into rival city-states.

The South however remained more politically united but was claimed by both Spain and France. In the end, Spain won the tug of war for the new Kingdom of Naples. Image
Fast forward to the treaty of Vienna in 1815 and there's a new North-South political divide.

Large chunks of the North now in Austrian hands, but even the duchies of Parma and Modena were indirectly under Austrian control. The Kingdom of the 2 Sicilies still holds the South. Image
Conditions were tough in 19th century Italy, so many Italians emigrated.

Before 1900 most emigrants came from the north, but after 1900 half came from the less populous south.

(for example in 1900 Lombardy had a population of 4 million vs 2.5 for Calabria) Image
The north rapidly became the industrial powerhouse of Italy, with the "industrial triangle" of Milan, Turin and Genoa.

Even to this day, the south's rail network is visibly and notoriously underdeveloped relative to the north. Image
Italy re-united as a Monarchy in 1861

But there's a new North/South divide in 1943 when the Allies land in Sicily: The Grand Council of Fascism arrest Mussolini while Germany carves out a puppet state in the north: the Social Republic of Italy nominally ran by a freed Mussolini. Image
In 1946, Italians were asked if they wanted to keep the monarchy (which had not been sidelined but not eliminated by the fascists).

The rural conservative south clearly backed the monarchy but the industrial urban north (also the ex-Social Republic) tipped it for the Republic. Image
A bit of an aside before we talk about modern Italian politics, but this divide on the monarchy makes me think a very interesting theory on the impact of geology and climate on conservative politics which you can read more on below:

After the war, the north-south divide continued, with the south inhospitable electoral land for the Communist Party (PCI) and the Socialist Party (PSI). Here are the results from the 1946, 1968, 1976 and 1987 general elections. ImageImageImageImage
While the South was not swayed by the left in the 20th century, it became a fertile ground for populist parties in the 21st.

The 5 star movement is a very unique populist party (neither "right" nor "left"). Since 2018 it is very strong in the south.

2018/2022 general elections ImageImage
But the biggest electoral phenomenon in the south isn't 5 Star's success, but rather the staggeringly low voter turnout. Image
A few modern non-political examples of this divide starting with the more serious ones:

The North has more immigrants, more GDP per capita, fewer gambling problems for teens and less unemployment ImageImageImageImage
Map of the most valuable Italian brands also tells you a lot about the north-south divide. Image
Moving on to some less serious divides (courtesy of @TheLocalItaly)

-People who say they drink alcohol other than at mealtimes
-Mc Donalds ImageImage
This however is a dead serious matter: Image
Not North-South but frankly hilarious: Image
Thanks for reading this far!

If you want more map and history threads like these I've compiled a few here:
Italy is a complex country, there are further regional variations if you dig deeper, and Italians obviously also have a lot in common!

If you have more maps feel free to share them and I'll add them to the thread.
And if you're interested in Italian politics, you can tune in to this episode of the @UnDecencyPod on the Italian elections

Thread continues here on Italian sports:

Thanks to @angelo_forgione for flagging the North-South difference in football!

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More from @Valen10Francois

Oct 21
In a predictably 🇫🇷 twist, unions are blaming the Louvre fiasco on lack of staff

They claim that 100s of jobs were cut in the last 10/15 years. The French press took these number for granted

So I did what no one did and looked at the annual reports:

The unions are wrong Image
The unions are claiming that staff head count has gone down by 200.

In 2010 the Louvre's annual report claims 2100 employees.

By 2015 it has gone down somewhat at 2072

And in 2024? Would it be 1900?

Nope... it's even higher than in 2010 at 2242
Oh but perhaps the unions are talking about security agents.

In 2010 there's 1200 of them

In 2015 there's 1200 of them

In 2024 there's... 1200 of them
Read 12 tweets
Oct 14
People often assume that French politicians never touch pensions out of fear of the grey vote

This is only partially true:

Working age Frenchies are also delusional or ill-informed on pensions

This is how they end up backing "Turkeys for Christmas" policies

A🧵 Image
French people don't see pensions as a big issue

When you ask them what to cut:

32% mention family benefits (≃50 bn)

31% digital policy (no idea of the value but single digit billions at most)

30% unemployment benefits (≃40bn)

Only 6% mention pensions (400bn+) Image
French people overwhelmingly favor the abrogation of Macron's pensions reform Image
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Sep 22
Is Catholicism making a revival in France?

Latin masses, baptisms, pilgrimages, Catholicism seems hip again!

But behind the vibes, what do the stats and maps show?

A 🧵 on the decline and transformation of Catholicism in post-Catholic France Image
France is historically one of the most important Catholic countries in Europe

To this day the trace of Catholicism can be found everywhere in France

Here's a map of France with all the towns with "Catholic" names (with Saint or trinity in it for example) Image
But since around the mid 18th century, Catholicism stops being a mass phenomenon and is instead much more geographically polarised

Here's the map of practicing Catholics in 1965. Big contrasts. Alsace, Brittany, the SW and the south-center are very pious Image
Read 27 tweets
Sep 8
French PM François Bayrou has been ousted by parliament. Macron's 3rd PM to lose his job in 18 months

The stakes are huge:

Will Macron dissolve parliament? Will the left take over? What about the IMF?

A 🧵on what happened and what happens next Image
What happened?

Ever since Macron's snap election last july, his coalition has shrunk into a small minority government

Last December his previous PM Michel Barnier was deposed by parliament after 3 months.

Bayrou took over facing similarly impossible parliamentary arithmetics Image
On top of that his government had to deal with possibly the most toxic fiscal situation in a decade

France's deficit is well above the 3% EU target

Bayrou was aiming for 43 bn in savings!

A recipe for disaster with roughly 3 equal parliamentary blocks unwilling to compromise Image
Read 24 tweets
Sep 7
Portugal being the first modern European colonial empire despite having a population of 1 million is seriously impressive. Image
And then at a similarly impressive pace becoming a secondary political player for the five centuries that followed.
Fun fact on the Portuguese empire: after decades of negotiations to try to get Goa peacefully, India just sent in the army in 1961

Portuguese dictator Salazar ordered for the completely outgunned defenders to fight to the last man

The prudent governor surrendered 36 hours after Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 6
In 1582 Jesuit missionaries entered China

They could have been killed!

And yet in a few years they became the Emperor’s top advisors, brokering diplomatic deals and moving their pawns

This is a 🧵on how the Jesuits infiltrated China...

And how it all came crashing down! Image
The Society of Jesus was founded in Paris in 1534 by students.

It rapidly grew and recognised by the Pope in 1540

They were big on missionary work and wanted to convert the world before the protestants

Here's a map of their colleges founded in the 220 years that followed Image
In that global vision China was key. Since Marco Polo it was the land of fantasies.

One of the order's cofounder Francis Xavier died on the shores of China without being able to enter. Image
Read 26 tweets

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