François Valentin Profile picture
Nov 17, 2022 27 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Italians often joke that the North and the South of the boot are different countries.

But you would've been able to spot this North/South divide centuries ago!

A 🧵 on Italy that goes from Ancient Greece to Beppe Grillo (with some food sprinkled along the way) Image
Starting with some history:

The south ("Magna Graecia") was settled by greeks from 8th to 5th century BC who founded cities like Neapolis (Naples).

They connected the south to their Mediterraenean network and probably surpassed the motherland in population Image
To this day the genetic admixture of Southern Italians is very similar to modern Greeks.

In contrast Northern Italians are much closer to Spain or Southern France as they share more of the Indo-European admixture. ImageImage
Let's get a little less abstract: Northern Italians are more likely to have fair hair and eyes. Percentage of Italians with...Image
The Roman Empire united Italy politically, but after its collapse Italy would wait for unification for centuries.

The North would come under under the influence of Charlemagne's empire (the future Holy Roman empire) when it defeated the Germanic Lombards in 774. Image
The South saw a massive power struggle. The byzantine held major influence in the South, even well after it peaked in the 6th century under Justinian. Image
Arab Kingdoms also shaped those areas, especially Siciliy, with the Aghlabids Dynasty in the 9th century having a strong foothold. Even when they did not hold direct political power in those areas, Arabs impacted the aread influential through trade and razzias. Image
The Normans in the end ended up as the victors in the South. The Norman kingdom eventually became (after a very complicated history) the Kingdom of the two Sicilies. Image
In practice, the Holy Roman Empir's hold on the north was limited, and the North splintered into rival city-states.

The South however remained more politically united but was claimed by both Spain and France. In the end, Spain won the tug of war for the new Kingdom of Naples. Image
Fast forward to the treaty of Vienna in 1815 and there's a new North-South political divide.

Large chunks of the North now in Austrian hands, but even the duchies of Parma and Modena were indirectly under Austrian control. The Kingdom of the 2 Sicilies still holds the South. Image
Conditions were tough in 19th century Italy, so many Italians emigrated.

Before 1900 most emigrants came from the north, but after 1900 half came from the less populous south.

(for example in 1900 Lombardy had a population of 4 million vs 2.5 for Calabria) Image
The north rapidly became the industrial powerhouse of Italy, with the "industrial triangle" of Milan, Turin and Genoa.

Even to this day, the south's rail network is visibly and notoriously underdeveloped relative to the north. Image
Italy re-united as a Monarchy in 1861

But there's a new North/South divide in 1943 when the Allies land in Sicily: The Grand Council of Fascism arrest Mussolini while Germany carves out a puppet state in the north: the Social Republic of Italy nominally ran by a freed Mussolini. Image
In 1946, Italians were asked if they wanted to keep the monarchy (which had not been sidelined but not eliminated by the fascists).

The rural conservative south clearly backed the monarchy but the industrial urban north (also the ex-Social Republic) tipped it for the Republic. Image
A bit of an aside before we talk about modern Italian politics, but this divide on the monarchy makes me think a very interesting theory on the impact of geology and climate on conservative politics which you can read more on below:

After the war, the north-south divide continued, with the south inhospitable electoral land for the Communist Party (PCI) and the Socialist Party (PSI). Here are the results from the 1946, 1968, 1976 and 1987 general elections. ImageImageImageImage
While the South was not swayed by the left in the 20th century, it became a fertile ground for populist parties in the 21st.

The 5 star movement is a very unique populist party (neither "right" nor "left"). Since 2018 it is very strong in the south.

2018/2022 general elections ImageImage
But the biggest electoral phenomenon in the south isn't 5 Star's success, but rather the staggeringly low voter turnout. Image
A few modern non-political examples of this divide starting with the more serious ones:

The North has more immigrants, more GDP per capita, fewer gambling problems for teens and less unemployment ImageImageImageImage
Map of the most valuable Italian brands also tells you a lot about the north-south divide. Image
Moving on to some less serious divides (courtesy of @TheLocalItaly)

-People who say they drink alcohol other than at mealtimes
-Mc Donalds ImageImage
This however is a dead serious matter: Image
Not North-South but frankly hilarious: Image
Thanks for reading this far!

If you want more map and history threads like these I've compiled a few here:
Italy is a complex country, there are further regional variations if you dig deeper, and Italians obviously also have a lot in common!

If you have more maps feel free to share them and I'll add them to the thread.
And if you're interested in Italian politics, you can tune in to this episode of the @UnDecencyPod on the Italian elections

Thread continues here on Italian sports:

Thanks to @angelo_forgione for flagging the North-South difference in football!

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More from @Valen10Francois

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Humble beginnings in the Gallo-Roman era Image
It was hardly any bigger nearly centuries later! Image
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How rich was pre-revolutionary Europe?

Despite major political divides, Northern Italy was still ahead on the continent!

England with its proto industrial revolution was just behind.

France was very poor in contrast. Image
Using data on gold reserves and the places of birth/death of 563K (as sourced on Wikipedia), these researchers offer a very innovative way of estimating gdp per capita given the lack of data available

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France's fiscal situation is very dire and yet we refuse to consider cutting pensions (350bn a year, 25% of public spending)

Worse still we added another 14bn for pensions last year because we are afraid of upsetting pensioners

Boomers have put France in a fiscal chokehold
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Sorry for unfairly picking on (the very kind) Albert here, but this is reflective of a wider issue

No one in France realises that we are bleeding ourselves to pay for our pensioners

When you ask French people what we should cut:

32% mention family benefits (≃50 bn)

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Only 6% mention pensions (350bn) Image
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One good map = 100 articles

Here's the projected population growth in Germany, take a look at Saxony at Thuringia who just massively backed the far-right AFD Image
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The AFD is also morphing. AFD Voters used to say they backed them because they gave up on the other parties (light blue), now the AFD vote is a conviction rather than a rejection vote. Image
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Mar 25
After years of relative stability, EU exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus have skyrocketed in 2022

+123% to Armenia, +297% to Kyrgyzstan...

And where are these goods going? Russia in large part, with a huge impact on the battlefield

A🧵on sanction-dodging Image
Sanctions on Russia on paper seem to have worked. EU Exports are down 44.8%, US down 90%.

But Russian imports of goods rose 20% simultaneously. Partly because Chinese exports have surged.

Partly because some people are tiptoeing around sanctions. Image
Since the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions on Russia, exports from Central Asia to Russia have increased by nearly a third. Image
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Mar 19
This map drives Paris crazy. It shows France hardly contributing to Ukraine’s defense, but Paris say the data is bullshit.

As Macron is taking a hardline stance on Russia, let’s see whether the map is off or if France is genuinely not taking its fair share.

A 🧵 Image
Let’s start with the data from the map above.

From Jan 2022 to Jan 2024 France pledged $700 million in military equipment

Light years behind: Germany(19.42bn), UK (10bn)

But also behind Estonia (980M) or Lithuania(900M) ! Image
So who measures this? The Kiel Institute, an independent, non-profit German economic research institute

The idea is that they count publicly pledged resources.

They explain their methodology here:

They argue it's the best way to measure aid.ifw-kiel.de/publications/t…
Read 23 tweets

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