François Valentin Profile picture
🇫🇷 analyst with an eye for a good map-based story (DMs open for media) Musings on 🇨🇳 Schwarzman Scholar Host @undecencypod ex-@EurasiaGroup @ukonward
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Oct 21 12 tweets 3 min read
In a predictably 🇫🇷 twist, unions are blaming the Louvre fiasco on lack of staff

They claim that 100s of jobs were cut in the last 10/15 years. The French press took these number for granted

So I did what no one did and looked at the annual reports:

The unions are wrong Image The unions are claiming that staff head count has gone down by 200.

In 2010 the Louvre's annual report claims 2100 employees.

By 2015 it has gone down somewhat at 2072

And in 2024? Would it be 1900?

Nope... it's even higher than in 2010 at 2242
Oct 14 10 tweets 4 min read
People often assume that French politicians never touch pensions out of fear of the grey vote

This is only partially true:

Working age Frenchies are also delusional or ill-informed on pensions

This is how they end up backing "Turkeys for Christmas" policies

A🧵 Image French people don't see pensions as a big issue

When you ask them what to cut:

32% mention family benefits (≃50 bn)

31% digital policy (no idea of the value but single digit billions at most)

30% unemployment benefits (≃40bn)

Only 6% mention pensions (400bn+) Image
Sep 22 27 tweets 9 min read
Is Catholicism making a revival in France?

Latin masses, baptisms, pilgrimages, Catholicism seems hip again!

But behind the vibes, what do the stats and maps show?

A 🧵 on the decline and transformation of Catholicism in post-Catholic France Image France is historically one of the most important Catholic countries in Europe

To this day the trace of Catholicism can be found everywhere in France

Here's a map of France with all the towns with "Catholic" names (with Saint or trinity in it for example) Image
Sep 8 24 tweets 7 min read
French PM François Bayrou has been ousted by parliament. Macron's 3rd PM to lose his job in 18 months

The stakes are huge:

Will Macron dissolve parliament? Will the left take over? What about the IMF?

A 🧵on what happened and what happens next Image What happened?

Ever since Macron's snap election last july, his coalition has shrunk into a small minority government

Last December his previous PM Michel Barnier was deposed by parliament after 3 months.

Bayrou took over facing similarly impossible parliamentary arithmetics Image
Sep 7 5 tweets 2 min read
Portugal being the first modern European colonial empire despite having a population of 1 million is seriously impressive. Image And then at a similarly impressive pace becoming a secondary political player for the five centuries that followed.
Aug 6 26 tweets 10 min read
In 1582 Jesuit missionaries entered China

They could have been killed!

And yet in a few years they became the Emperor’s top advisors, brokering diplomatic deals and moving their pawns

This is a 🧵on how the Jesuits infiltrated China...

And how it all came crashing down! Image The Society of Jesus was founded in Paris in 1534 by students.

It rapidly grew and recognised by the Pope in 1540

They were big on missionary work and wanted to convert the world before the protestants

Here's a map of their colleges founded in the 220 years that followed Image
Jul 4 14 tweets 5 min read
China's biggest threat isn't Trump... but its explosive local debt

After decades of relying on land sales and the real estate market the music has stopped with huge consequences.

A 🧵 on China's biggest and underreported economic challenge Image It might come as a surprise but China is in some ways very decentralised!

85-90% of all public spending is done at subnational level.

Even the US with its Federal model is at 50% Image
Apr 20 7 tweets 3 min read
Americans have a unique superpower:

They naturally know how to dig entrenched political cleavages overnight to stick to their political tribe.

Even on issues where they previously didn't disagree much!

Some samples of America's hyper-tribalism Image This might come as a surprise but free trade has been unpopular on both parties for a while.

Until Trump's tariffs and now all of the sudden the Left are rediscovering the virtues of free trade

Basically overnight Image
Apr 5 10 tweets 4 min read
Who are China's political elites?

What is the equivalent of their Ivy Leagues or the Oxbridge?

A thread on the (mostly) old men who run the People's Republic of China Image Here's how I define the Chinese political elites:

It's the 812 people who serve in China's top political bodies from Xi Jinping at the top all the way to provincial standing committee.

Most of them are provincial officials (61%) Image
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Apr 3 5 tweets 2 min read
The tiny island of St Pierre et Miquelon got a 99% tariff because somebody bought 3.4 million worth of goods in July 2024 (most likely crustaceans)

The 5,8 k inhabitants "only" bought 100k worth of US goods in 2024

But... Image Trade was balanced for years (here's 2023), that one contract (which I have been trying to find) has landed them the highest tariff rate

Thankfully given that St Pierre barely imports anything from the US it won't have an impact but it's an insight on how unserious this method isImage
Mar 24 10 tweets 4 min read
No wonder the US has soured on international organisations...

How often do countries vote with the United States at the United Nations (2000-2020)?

The answer is not much

A small thread on the US and the UN Image Who's backing the US most consistently?

Israel, the anglosphere and small island nations Image
Mar 17 8 tweets 3 min read
After 6 months in China, it is time to take stock of the strangest pizzas I have seen and eaten this year.

My fellow Italian friends, if you think pineapple on pizza is too much for you to handle, I suggest you look away Image First up this special edition "goblin pizza" by Pizza Hut.

Yes that's a frog.

No, even the Frenchman in me didn't dare touch it Image
Mar 12 4 tweets 1 min read
Net fiscal contribution of 1st generation immigrants in the Netherlands by country of origin

Red and orange is negative Image Work from @demo_demo_nl, very interesting and exhaustive stuff
Mar 4 12 tweets 4 min read
Three years ago Marine Le Pen boasted about her ties with Putin

Now she is condemning Trump's decision to cut military aid to Ukraine.

This will do rounds internationally but here's why I don't think it is that surprising.

A few words on why Le Pen dropped Putinism Image The photo taken above was supposed to feature in her 2022 campaign leaflet, it was recalled last minute when the war broke out.

Putin's war had made him toxic and she knew it Image
Jan 16 37 tweets 14 min read
Harbin from 1898 to 1949 is one of the most interesting places in history!

The City of Ice was for 50 years a cosmopolitan battleground between White & Red 🇷🇺, 🇯🇵 Imperialists and 🇨🇳 Communists

A🧵on Asia's frozen Wild Wild East and powder keg Image Harbin is set in Manchuria, Northern China, a region historically the periphery of China to the North of the Great Wall.

Not a complete backwater however, as the Manchus eventually became Emperors of China as the Qing dynasty! Image
Dec 5, 2024 30 tweets 9 min read
French PM Michel Barnier has fallen last night after a mere 3 months in office over the budget

The stakes are huge.

Who will replace Barnier? Will Macron resign? Can France avoid a US-style shutdown?

A 🧵on what happened and what happens next Image What happened? At a very basic level Barnier and his minority government tried to push through the budget (without a majority) and got deposed.

The Left and the Le Pen's nationalists voted to take his government down, 331 of the 577 MPs, making Barnier the shortest-serving PM. Image
Dec 2, 2024 4 tweets 2 min read
The fact that the Brits have largely decided to move back to old English lands in France never ceases to amuse me. Image
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They are the biggest group of immigrants in large parts of western France. Image
Nov 1, 2024 11 tweets 3 min read
The growth of Paris throughout history! Image Humble beginnings in the Gallo-Roman era Image
Sep 17, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read
How rich was pre-revolutionary Europe?

Despite major political divides, Northern Italy was still ahead on the continent!

England with its proto industrial revolution was just behind.

France was very poor in contrast. Image Using data on gold reserves and the places of birth/death of 563K (as sourced on Wikipedia), these researchers offer a very innovative way of estimating gdp per capita given the lack of data available

Sep 4, 2024 12 tweets 4 min read
France's fiscal situation is very dire and yet we refuse to consider cutting pensions (350bn a year, 25% of public spending)

Worse still we added another 14bn for pensions last year because we are afraid of upsetting pensioners

Boomers have put France in a fiscal chokehold
Image Sorry for unfairly picking on (the very kind) Albert here, but this is reflective of a wider issue

No one in France realises that we are bleeding ourselves to pay for our pensioners

Sep 2, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read
One good map = 100 articles

Here's the projected population growth in Germany, take a look at Saxony at Thuringia who just massively backed the far-right AFD Image Add to that it's the boomers that are keeping at bay the AFD, young people on the contrary are massively turning towards the AFD
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