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François Valentin Profile picture
François Valentin
@Valen10Francois
🇫🇷 politics analyst with an eye for a good map-based story Schwarzman Scholar Host @undecencypod ex-@EurasiaGroup @ukonward
13 subscribers
Apr 5 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Who are China's political elites?

What is the equivalent of their Ivy Leagues or the Oxbridge?

A thread on the (mostly) old men who run the People's Republic of China Image Here's how I define the Chinese political elites:

It's the 812 people who serve in China's top political bodies from Xi Jinping at the top all the way to provincial standing committee.

Most of them are provincial officials (61%) Image
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Apr 3 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The tiny island of St Pierre et Miquelon got a 99% tariff because somebody bought 3.4 million worth of goods in July 2024 (most likely crustaceans)

The 5,8 k inhabitants "only" bought 100k worth of US goods in 2024

But... Image Trade was balanced for years (here's 2023), that one contract (which I have been trying to find) has landed them the highest tariff rate

Thankfully given that St Pierre barely imports anything from the US it won't have an impact but it's an insight on how unserious this method isImage
Mar 24 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
No wonder the US has soured on international organisations...

How often do countries vote with the United States at the United Nations (2000-2020)?

The answer is not much

A small thread on the US and the UN Image Who's backing the US most consistently?

Israel, the anglosphere and small island nations Image
Mar 17 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
After 6 months in China, it is time to take stock of the strangest pizzas I have seen and eaten this year.

My fellow Italian friends, if you think pineapple on pizza is too much for you to handle, I suggest you look away Image First up this special edition "goblin pizza" by Pizza Hut.

Yes that's a frog.

No, even the Frenchman in me didn't dare touch it Image
Mar 12 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Net fiscal contribution of 1st generation immigrants in the Netherlands by country of origin

Red and orange is negative Image Work from @demo_demo_nl, very interesting and exhaustive stuff
Mar 4 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Three years ago Marine Le Pen boasted about her ties with Putin

Now she is condemning Trump's decision to cut military aid to Ukraine.

This will do rounds internationally but here's why I don't think it is that surprising.

A few words on why Le Pen dropped Putinism Image The photo taken above was supposed to feature in her 2022 campaign leaflet, it was recalled last minute when the war broke out.

Putin's war had made him toxic and she knew it Image
Jan 16 • 37 tweets • 14 min read
Harbin from 1898 to 1949 is one of the most interesting places in history!

The City of Ice was for 50 years a cosmopolitan battleground between White & Red 🇷🇺, 🇯🇵 Imperialists and 🇨🇳 Communists

A🧵on Asia's frozen Wild Wild East and powder keg Image Harbin is set in Manchuria, Northern China, a region historically the periphery of China to the North of the Great Wall.

Not a complete backwater however, as the Manchus eventually became Emperors of China as the Qing dynasty! Image
Dec 5, 2024 • 30 tweets • 9 min read
French PM Michel Barnier has fallen last night after a mere 3 months in office over the budget

The stakes are huge.

Who will replace Barnier? Will Macron resign? Can France avoid a US-style shutdown?

A 🧵on what happened and what happens next Image What happened? At a very basic level Barnier and his minority government tried to push through the budget (without a majority) and got deposed.

The Left and the Le Pen's nationalists voted to take his government down, 331 of the 577 MPs, making Barnier the shortest-serving PM. Image
Dec 2, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The fact that the Brits have largely decided to move back to old English lands in France never ceases to amuse me. Image
Image They are the biggest group of immigrants in large parts of western France. Image
Nov 1, 2024 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
The growth of Paris throughout history! Image Humble beginnings in the Gallo-Roman era Image
Sep 17, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
How rich was pre-revolutionary Europe?

Despite major political divides, Northern Italy was still ahead on the continent!

England with its proto industrial revolution was just behind.

France was very poor in contrast. Image Using data on gold reserves and the places of birth/death of 563K (as sourced on Wikipedia), these researchers offer a very innovative way of estimating gdp per capita given the lack of data available

Sep 4, 2024 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
France's fiscal situation is very dire and yet we refuse to consider cutting pensions (350bn a year, 25% of public spending)

Worse still we added another 14bn for pensions last year because we are afraid of upsetting pensioners

Boomers have put France in a fiscal chokehold
Image Sorry for unfairly picking on (the very kind) Albert here, but this is reflective of a wider issue

No one in France realises that we are bleeding ourselves to pay for our pensioners

Sep 2, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
One good map = 100 articles

Here's the projected population growth in Germany, take a look at Saxony at Thuringia who just massively backed the far-right AFD Image Add to that it's the boomers that are keeping at bay the AFD, young people on the contrary are massively turning towards the AFD
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Mar 25, 2024 • 18 tweets • 8 min read
After years of relative stability, EU exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus have skyrocketed in 2022

+123% to Armenia, +297% to Kyrgyzstan...

And where are these goods going? Russia in large part, with a huge impact on the battlefield

A🧵on sanction-dodging Image Sanctions on Russia on paper seem to have worked. EU Exports are down 44.8%, US down 90%.

But Russian imports of goods rose 20% simultaneously. Partly because Chinese exports have surged.

Partly because some people are tiptoeing around sanctions. Image
Mar 19, 2024 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
This map drives Paris crazy. It shows France hardly contributing to Ukraine’s defense, but Paris say the data is bullshit.

As Macron is taking a hardline stance on Russia, let’s see whether the map is off or if France is genuinely not taking its fair share.

A 🧵 Image Let’s start with the data from the map above.

From Jan 2022 to Jan 2024 France pledged $700 million in military equipment

Light years behind: Germany(19.42bn), UK (10bn)

But also behind Estonia (980M) or Lithuania(900M) ! Image
Jan 17, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Fascinating report on child allowances and fertility.

France cut child allowances for wealthy couples in 2014, which lead to a marked drop in their fertility, especially among parents who already had kids. Image As you can see, the effect is most pronounced for families just above the threshold for allowances. Image
Jan 6, 2024 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
A thread mapping immigration in France from 1851 to today!

I'll try to look at the changing profiles of foreigners and immigrants in France, from their nationality to where they have decided to settle. Image The share of foreigners in France has been rising over the last 150 years but with some peaks and troughs.

There was a notable surge in the 1920s that died out after the crisis of 1929 Image
Dec 31, 2023 • 24 tweets • 9 min read
Disappointed by the #napoleonmovie? The good news is that reality dwarfs fiction

Far from being Scott's half-wit, he was a legendary tactician and a master of deception, in full display in the triumph of Austerlitz

A🧵on Napoleon's crowning success Image Nov 1805, the Russo-Austrian emperors are on the cusp of defeating Napoleon (NB going forward)

NB is far from home in Austria. Winter is coming and Prussia is on the cusp of joining the allies. The situation is desperate, and yet in weeks he will be the master of Europe. How? Image
Oct 10, 2023 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
Here's an another interesting trend: there's a growing gender polarisation between young men and young women.

Young women disproportionately back the left/greens/far-left and young men the right (and far-right).

Exhibit A: Poland

A small🧵on a new phenomenon
Image This is especially remarkable given that historically the gender gap went the other way:

Men voted to the left and women to the right

In France, the left opposed the right of women to vote in the early 19th century because they were worried women were under "clerical influence" Image
Oct 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
What were the centers of power in pre-modern Europe?

Here's a map on where leaders met in Europe between 1494 and 1789.

The top 5?

1) Rome
2) Vienna
3) Florence
4) Paris
5) Versailles

Small🧵on how that balance of power changed through the centuries: Image Here's a breakdown by century.

A great snapshot on the European balance of power

Rome/Papal stability

Italian city-states progressively decline (despite Florence's 1600s surge).

Vienna 1600s surges

Versailles replaces Paris

Berlin late bloomer

London's relative isolation Image
Apr 30, 2023 • 40 tweets • 14 min read
In 1920, this historian managed to predict World War II step by step!

He called out the Anschluss and the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact included, by reading maps and history books

Buckle up, in this 🧵 we will explore the most prophetic book ever written in history Image After WW1, Germany was amputated of 13% of its territory and 10% of its population by the treaty of Versailles

The Rhineland was demilitarized, the Saar coalfields given to France, the German army reduced to 100 000 and its fleet to 6 battleships (and no submarines) Image