Last week I summarized the FTX-implosion and its ripple down effect. The uncovering of grossly negligent behavior by the new J.P. Morgan was the epicenter of what has become a tidal wave in crypto
Now Crypto’s biggest lender, Genesis, seems to be taking in water
A thread 1/n
Back in 2013, Genesis became the first OTC Bitcoin lending desk – now they are the largest.
Its parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), is owned by the billionaire Barry Silbert and they own major figures in the space; Genesis, CoinDesk, Foundry, Luno, and Greyscale.
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Genesis certainly wasn’t going to miss out as the market continued its stratosphere-trajectory.
Just have a look at these numbers, and I am sure you will get an idea…
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Genesis wasn’t hesitant lending out money in the pursuit of greater return – hey, that is what your conventional bank does, albeit with greater caution I hope – and among their debtors was Three Arrows Capital.
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In fact, Genesis was the biggest creditor to 3AC totaling $2.4 bn. As the loan turned sour Genesis then filed a $1.2 bn claim against 3AC. Enter DCG; They assumed the claim and left Genesis in the clear.
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While Fortune might favor the brave, another saying goes; “misfortunes never come singly”. The latter applied to Genesis, who wasn’t home safe just yet. Their large exposure to Babel, who themselves took a hit, was the final straw and in August CEO Michael Moro resigned
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The fact that Genesis was used by numerous platforms offering TREMENDOUS returns cause implications for the entire industry. If a platform offers yield, they most likely have partnered up with Genesis.
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Yield farming, mining… all swell when things are on the up. But now it seems reality has struck.
So how does this ‘scheme’ work? 1) I hand my tokens to X, 2) X passes them to Genesis 3) Genesis lend my tokens to a fund 4) the fund borrows from Genesis…
Sounds familiar?
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As long as Genesis’ debtors can meet their obligations, then smiles all round. BUT, things can only work for so long. Once the situation turns south people loose their money. Businesses cashing in big time on these schemes weren’t too fond of proclaiming the associated risks
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Yesterday, the lending division of Genesis ‘temporarily’ suspended redemptions and new loan originations in the wake of the FTX-debunk. The unit known as Genesis Global Capital serves an institutional client base and had $2.8 bn in total active loans.
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But why all the fuzz about Genesis? Major retail accounts as well as institutions (CeFi) have felt in safer hands opting in for Genesis’ custody service. The fact that they have served institutional investors, looking to earn yield, doesn’t make matters better.
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So, how will this end? The question really is whether DCG will be able to raise sufficient funds to bail out Genesis – as they did when 3AC went belly-up. I wonder who they will try to woo. Who will take on the risk, given the current state in Crypto? I wouldn’t
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A China reopening is maybe THE hottest macro story outside of the US disinflation euphoria (suddenly I don't get a ton of trolls in my feed, when I tell that inflation has peaked for now)
Lower global inflation INCREASES the chance of a reopening in China
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HARD lock-downs have brought Chinese inflation under control relative to EU and US inflation and the Chinese politburo knows
Inflation dissipating in Europe and US will increase the chance of a reopening in China, but we are still far from comfortable global inflation
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Another mild inflation number from the US - this time the PPI! 😅🐮
Inflation is heading lower, but watch out!
A thread 1/n
PPI now clearly hints of lower CPI readings around 6-7% within a couple of months from now.. Good news and it adds to a series of downwards pointing indicators for inflation
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Freight rates for example hint of SHARP goods disinflation in coming months.. Supply chains are softening up, which ought to bring prices of goods down ultimately..
The CPI report came in Thursday with headline at 7.7% and core at 6.3%, both lower than expected. And boy oh boy did risk assets like that. Everything was partying like there was no tomorrow.
Let’s have a quick look at what F happened here?
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Firstly, yields in the US and Europe collapsed, which saw the dollar weakening given Europe a bit more breathing room. China was the only country to see yields rise on a weekly basis properly reflecting the reopening story.
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Everyone and their mother suddenly celebrated inflation at 7.7% and that saw the largest daily move up in the SPY since the spring of 2020. You know .. back when rates and inflation were near zero. I don’t quite get the rush to suddenly turn uber bullish risk assets.
Serious technical damage has been done to the long USD bet 🐻
A thread 1/n
A move from 0.95 to 1.035 is quite a reversal and the trend-channel is clearly broken in the short EURUSD bet now
Let's look at the reasons why
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1) The energy bet has been reversed. Nat Gas priced are down materially, which helps the German (and European) current account balance regain its footing and consequently helped the EUR
So, I doubt you have missed the MAYHEM unfolding in Crypto these past days
Are we witnessing a Bear Stearns / Lehman 2.0 in Crypto space in real-time here on Twitter?
Here is a boomers ‘executive summary’ if you will…
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The saga took its beginning on Nov. 2nd after a leaked balance sheet from Alameda Research, the Sam Bankman-Fried founded trading firm, showed significant holdings of the FTX-native token FTT. This rightly concerned the crypto community.
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Alameda's CEO tried to pour oil on troubled waters with the statement on Nov 6
“The BS breaks out a few of our biggest long positions; we obviously have hedges that aren’t listed … given the tightening in the crypto credit space this year we’ve returned most of our loans”
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