"Every now and again, we reach a moment in time when the scales fall from our eyes, and reality is revealed to us. We are now at one of those moments when the stories we tell ourselves have fallen apart.
The dominant narratives are failing."
Narratives matter:
For the vast majority of human history, people were illiterate. We developed story-telling to share information: When animals were around for the hunt; what snakes to avoid + mushrooms not to eat, etc.
The Billionaire Genius
SBF, FTX & Alameda Research
Tech Dominance & the New Economy
The Fed Put
60/40 is dead
DeFi Will Replace Regulations
Russian Military Might
A Red Wave is Coming
The Inevitable Triumph of Trump/MAGA
How About Those Mets?
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But I want to delve into the big-picture misses, the obvious misunderstandings, and the flawed fundamental failures over the course of this election cycle.
Let's pick a few items where the conventional wisdom was very wrong...
Fed economists David Ratner and Jae Sim wrote in a paper wage-taming owed a lot to union busting + labor policy that makes it harder to organize and collectively bargain.
“Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?”
That was quite an amazing magazine cover, posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.
At the time,, Apple had been working on a touchscreen mobile computing device for several years.
They rolled out the first iPhone in 2007 -- the same year as the Forbes cover -- and that marked the beginning of the decline of Nokia’s mobile phone business
Is Loss Aversion about making good decisions or avoiding bad ones?
In Charlie Ellis’ "Winning the Losers Game" we learn in tennis, amateurs should avoid unforced errors, play within their skills, return the ball + not go for the Ace or smash shot.
Just like investing...
Investing errors are more damaging (subtractive) than good decisions are productive (additive).
Have we evolved to do less? Is this why groups wait for leadership to arise? What is an individual's bias towards action -- for or against?
I have more questions than answers.
From an evolutionary perspective, Risk was an existential threat. Loss meant not passing genes along.
Is this why we feel losses more deeply than we appreciate gains? Does this manifest as a bais towards better decision-making (resources) or away from errors (threats)?