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Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
@oonuch
Nov 18, 2022 • 8 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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Ukraine Scholars, as co-chair of the Ukraine Program at #ASN it is my pleasure to invite you all to please join us at this year’s @ASN_Org convention @HarrimanInst 1/8 Image
How to apply? 2/8 Image
History of the convention 3/8 Image
Sections and topic covered 4/8 Image
Call for papers 5/8 Image
Where to send your application and Where to look online for more info 6/8 Image
I specifically encourage early career folks to organize panels - I am happy to help advise how to do this. @emm_mateo @marnie_howlett please pass this on through your networks!
@UmlandAndreas @LBustikova @REESOxford @HURI_Harvard @PChaisty @brynrosenfeld @channelljustice @CamUkrainistyka @GwendolynSasse @ZOiS_Berlin @VolodymyrKulyk4 @YuliyaBidenko @YPYurchenko @KaterynaZarembo @skudelia @SPlokhy @PopovaProf @grigopop @tanyalokot please share 👆🏻⬆️

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More from @oonuch

Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Jun 12
A 🧵ON NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE May/June 2024 @MOBILISEproject

70% of Ukrainians agree Zelenskyy should continue as president during martial law. Support ranges from 65% in the East to 74% in the South.

Full report with analysis here: mobiliseproject.com/wp-content/upl…

Image
NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Zelenskyy's approval at 56%. Voting intentions show a tie between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi at 27%, with Poroshenko at 7%. Image
NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Enthusiasm for Zelenskyy dropped from 33% in July 2022 to 8% in May 2024. Sympathy remains stable at 18%. Image
Read 11 tweets
Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Mar 8
Correcting bad takes on Amb. Zaluzhnyi & dozens of media request

🧵of my analysis (I’m on record voiceing this in briefings in Whitehall/Wesrminster 3 weeks back)

1) Those who r surprised by Zaluzhnyi being in the fold don’t know full back story & haven’t been privy to info
2) Importantly tensions were blown up to be larger than they were. Not least, as reported in @washingtonpost some of the reports were part of a Russian disinformation campaign from 2022.

Disagreements existed but not in way some interpreted.
3) Zaluzhny is a patriot and is committed 2 being part of the team & Zelensky wants him in the fold, just in a different role. You might not agree what role but that is not up to you.

Ukraine’s allies also want Zaluzhny in the fold. More on that to come.
Read 10 tweets
Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Jan 14
Shame @TorontoStar publishes such uninformed a-empirical navel grazing about what is & is not „rational.” See exert👇by some who has never studied Ukraine or the region properly.
1) If it is a war of attrition it is certainly also 1 that Russia cannot win. Image
2) Reminder in a democracy what citizens wantmatters - 80%+ of Ukrainians = vehemently opposed to ANY territorial concessions as @MOBILISEproject data show
Image
Image
3) But to be clear not only does popular will matter in a democracy normatively & de jure, it also should be a major concern of any serious (be it realist or ratchoice) analysts when suggesting a likely war game outcome.

Understanding human capital in a democracy 1 also understands limits of possible & probably actions actors - the analysts purport to know - can make.
Read 9 tweets
Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Jan 3
On the 9th day of new Ukrainian Christmas
@MOBILISEproject
#poliscinerds gave to me
9 main news sources
8/10 civilian resistance
7 citizen facts
6 language facts
5 years of financial data
4 priorities
3 leaders
2 preferences
1 support 4 democracy
Image
Image
MOBILISE PROJECT PANEL DATA
Nationally Representative Survey
Collected by KIIS
CATI mode N= 1,200 - 2,000
Margin of error is no greater than 3.3% for 50%+
All data nationally representative of the 18+ population
All data weighted to the population
What media do Ukrainians consume for political news?
The main story here is that TV viewership has gone down and significantly whilst internet use for new has gone up from 64% of those using the internet for news in 2019 to 90% in 2023. Image
Read 11 tweets
Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Sep 3, 2023
Who is @rustem_umerov you might be asking & how should his replacing @oleksiireznikov be interpreted?

“The Ministry needs new approaches &…formats of interaction with both army & society… Fall is a time to strengthen.” Said @ZelenskyyUa in his address.

Small 🧵

1
Umerov was Holos Party MP & not Ze or Sluha inner circle & is Crimean Tatar
His appointment is signal of
- constructive cooperation with pol factions that are at times very critical of Ze
- 🇺🇦 won’t give up on - a pushback to mistaken US analysts trying to force negotiations.
2
Umerov was a participant in the March 2022 peace negotiations. He is not an outsider. He is not inexperienced. He is not unknown among Ukrainian leaders (political or military), Ukraine’s allies or among the Russians. But he also has respect & contacts in Turkey & Saudi Arabia
3
Read 8 tweets
Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Jul 20, 2023
When reporting on Russia’s announcement of their blockade of grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea please remember the following a🧵

1. Instead of using language such as “halted” “deal” make sure you use language that explains that this is “Russia’s blockade” 1/n
2. Not only is this an aggressive Russian blockade on 🇺🇦 grain shipments raising global grain prices (benefitting major grain producers that ramped up production 🇷🇺🇧🇷) it is also a tactic used to terrorize poorer countries in global south that are dependent on these exports. 2/n
3. 🇷🇺 is makes money from these actions.
RU remains 1 of the largest global exporters of grain.
RU increased production & signed deals with countries 4 shipments of grain.
RU benefits from blockade sparked price rises.
THERE ARE NO SANCTIONS ON 🇷🇺 ARGICULTURAL SHIPMENTS.
3/n
Read 10 tweets

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