What drives ordinary citizens to want their country to join or stay in the European Union (EU)?

🧵 it’s being a democrat or becoming one!

“Fighting for Europe: The EU's Democratic Pull Phenomenon in #Ukraine, #Poland and #Belarus”

OPEN ACCESS @JCMS_EU

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc… What drives support for joining/staying in the EU?

Whilst material benefits dominate explanations of support for #EU accession and membership,

I show BEING A DEMOCRAT drives citizens in countries as disparate as #Ukraine, #Poland & #Belarus to support EU accession/membership.

A 🧵ON NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE May/June 2024 @MOBILISEproject

70% of Ukrainians agree Zelenskyy should continue as president during martial law. Support ranges from 65% in the East to 74% in the South.

Full report with analysis here: mobiliseproject.com/wp-content/upl…

https://twitter.com/MOBILISEproject/status/1800689315238105309

NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Zelenskyy's approval at 56%. Voting intentions show a tie between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi at 27%, with Poroshenko at 7%.

Correcting bad takes on Amb. Zaluzhnyi & dozens of media request

🧵of my analysis (I’m on record voiceing this in briefings in Whitehall/Wesrminster 3 weeks back)

1) Those who r surprised by Zaluzhnyi being in the fold don’t know full back story & haven’t been privy to info

https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1765830421164515683

2) Importantly tensions were blown up to be larger than they were. Not least, as reported in @washingtonpost some of the reports were part of a Russian disinformation campaign from 2022.

Disagreements existed but not in way some interpreted.

Shame @TorontoStar publishes such uninformed a-empirical navel grazing about what is & is not „rational.” See exert👇by some who has never studied Ukraine or the region properly.
1) If it is a war of attrition it is certainly also 1 that Russia cannot win. 2) Reminder in a democracy what citizens wantmatters - 80%+ of Ukrainians = vehemently opposed to ANY territorial concessions as @MOBILISEproject data show

On the 9th day of new Ukrainian Christmas
@MOBILISEproject
#poliscinerds gave to me
9 main news sources
8/10 civilian resistance
7 citizen facts
6 language facts
5 years of financial data
4 priorities
3 leaders
2 preferences
1 support 4 democracy

MOBILISE PROJECT PANEL DATA
Nationally Representative Survey
Collected by KIIS
CATI mode N= 1,200 - 2,000
Margin of error is no greater than 3.3% for 50%+
All data nationally representative of the 18+ population
All data weighted to the population

Who is @rustem_umerov you might be asking & how should his replacing @oleksiireznikov be interpreted?

“The Ministry needs new approaches &…formats of interaction with both army & society… Fall is a time to strengthen.” Said @ZelenskyyUa in his address.

Small 🧵

1 Umerov was Holos Party MP & not Ze or Sluha inner circle & is Crimean Tatar
His appointment is signal of
- constructive cooperation with pol factions that are at times very critical of Ze
- 🇺🇦 won’t give up on - a pushback to mistaken US analysts trying to force negotiations.
2

When reporting on Russia’s announcement of their blockade of grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea please remember the following a🧵

1. Instead of using language such as “halted” “deal” make sure you use language that explains that this is “Russia’s blockade” 1/n 2. Not only is this an aggressive Russian blockade on 🇺🇦 grain shipments raising global grain prices (benefitting major grain producers that ramped up production 🇷🇺🇧🇷) it is also a tactic used to terrorize poorer countries in global south that are dependent on these exports. 2/n

Children run 4 shelter during a 🇷🇺attack in Kyiv as 🇺🇦army defends their young lives

@ucu members show u r the majority that supports ordinary Ukrainians

Tweet #UCUStandsWithUkraine
#UCUCondemnsRussianWarCrimes

Urge @DrJoGrady & NEC 2 make a public statement of clear support! Of interest to @ucu ers this scene 👆🏻is mere meters away from a 408 year old university @NaUKMA one of the oldest in the region.
This is who 🇬🇧 support helps 🇺🇦save & defend - lecturers just like us & students just like ours
#UCUStandsWithUkraine
#UCUCondemnsRussianWarCrimes

"Report on Violations & Abuses of International Humanitarian/Human Rights Law, #WarCrimes/#CrimesAgainstHumanity, related 2 Forcible Transfer/Deportation of Ukrainian Children 2 Russian Federation" @OSCE #TakenFromUkraine #CrimesAgainstHumanity
🧵excerpts
osce.org/odihr/542751 30 Mar 2023 45 states @OSCE consulting Ukraine invoked “Moscow Mechanism” & requested ODIHR 2 ask if Ukraine would invite expert mission on “Deportation of Children amidst Human Rights Violations & Humanitarian Impacts of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine"

1- Wow! “EuroMaidan Protests in Ukraine” & “Studying identity in Ukraine” = both Top 10 all time most read articles in #ProblemsofPostCom & #PostSovietAffairs

“Antiregime action & geopolitical polarization” is 2nd most read article in 12 months in #PostSovietAffairs links & 🧵👇 2- it’s a top 10 all time most read article in
#ProblemofPostCommunism “EuroMaidan Protests in Ukraine: Social Media Versus Social Networks” tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… thank you to my friend for letting me know this was a thing!

This is #Ukraine this am. AirRaid in whole country #wingsforfreedom #sendukrainewings #StandWithUkraine 3 waves of Iranian drones ant by #Russia are expected in 20-30 mins in #Ukraine. #StandWithUkraine

Not a dry eye in the house. @ZelenskyyUa gives one of his most powerful speeches this year and that says a lot. «Ми туть!» «we are here» #UkraineWillWin #2023UkraineWins Incredible NYE speech by @ZelenskyyUa families weeped

Son las 2:52 en #Kyiv y #Rusia está enviando misiles y drones.
El sistema de defensa aérea está funcionando, informa el ejército. Así (no) duermen mis amigos y familiares.
¿Cómo va tu 29 de diciembre? #Rusiaesunestadoterrorista
fotografía (de mañana) muestra las consecuencias @ecalvo68 @MagarinosC pueden por favor retuitear

We commemorate millions who died during the Holodomor genocide against Ukrainians. #Голодомор #Holodomor means to die by hunger.

The following 🧵includes
1) info from @UWCongress @ukrcancongress
2) a list some resources
3) and a sample of key scholarship

1/20 From November 21-27, 2022, Ukraine and the world will honor the memory of the victims of the 1932-33 Holodomor-genocide with a week of events around the globe. This year’s slogan of the global campaign to commemorate the Holodomor is “We Remember, Unite, and Shall Overcome” 2/20

It is #DignityAndFreedomDay in #Ukraine. Ukrainians celebrate the beginning of the #EuroMaidan mass mobilization (Nov 21, know in its aftermath by some as #RevolutionOfDignity). Here are a selection of my & other folks Research
1️⃣ who protested & why? washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca… 1/24 This @monkeycageblog piece is about the different cycles of contention (with @GwendolynSasse) during the #euromaidan washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca… 2/24

Ukraine Scholars, as co-chair of the Ukraine Program at #ASN it is my pleasure to invite you all to please join us at this year’s @ASN_Org convention @HarrimanInst 1/8 How to apply? 2/8

Thank you to @Telegraph @djknowles22 for a great discussion of Ukrainian politics + sneak peak of #TheZelenskyEffect @HurstPublishers @OUPAcademic on the #UkraineTheLatest podcast. Book available this Nov. @Dauntbooks @WaterstonesMCR or online. 1/4

https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1592862819619262464

Check out today’s podcast and all of the fab #UkraineTheLastest podcasts with @djknowles22 @DomNicholls @RolandOliphant @Telegraph and their guests here open.spotify.com/show/6cnkk1J0I… @OfficialUoM or however you listen to podcasts. 2/4

President Zelensky “Dear Ukrainians! Today, the enemy launched another massive missile attack on our country. A total of 90 missiles... & when did it happen? As soon as the first day of the G20 summit ended in Indonesia…” 1/6 @ZelenskyyUa “... Moreover, today what we warned about happened a long time ago. We talked about it. Terror is not limited to our national borders. Already spread to the territory of Moldova. today, Russian 2 missiles hit Poland…People died.”2/6 @ZelenskyyUa

.@ZelenskyyUa addresses “the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia and other indigenous peoples of Russia.
Dagestanis do not have to die in a vile and disgraceful war of Russia. Chechens, Ingush, Ossetians, Circassians and any other peoples who came under the Russian flag.” 1/4 .@ZelenskyyUa addresses “the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia and other indigenous peoples of Russia.
Dagestanis do not have to die in a vile and disgraceful war of Russia. Chechens, Ingush, Ossetians, Circassians and any other peoples who came under the Russian flag.” 2/4

Anatol Lieven wrote a piece about why its necessary to encourage negotiations with Russia - but it’s based on problematic assumptions/assessments. 1 is premise that “factors that have worked against Russia will do the same to Ukrainian forces if they launch mass offensives” 1/9 Let me explain why people who study war but do not study Ukrainian society should be mindful of the assumptions they make & calculations they project on the trajectories of battle, war aims, and outcomes. The reason why the Russian offensive failed is not simply logistical or 2/9

🧵1) Ukrainians have been dying 4 European values + chance 2 join EU since 2014! That’s not why they deserve #candidatestatus. #Ukraine deserves candidate status because even in context of war, economic crisis & pandemic their democracy strengthened & consolidated #EmbraceUkraine 2) Since 2014, in face of Russian invasion + pandemic - Ukrainians went to polls 8 times: 2 presidential (1 with 2 rounds), 2 parliamentary, 3 national local elections (1 at the height of the pandemic). All = free & fair. Unlike elsewhere in Europe voters shunned radical parties!