Important: I want to address this absurd campaign of FUD. As you know a social medium is an important venue for many people, in various states of isolation and fragility, to connect. As you also know, I have a large following.
1/6
More importantly, I have a large community of friends, about whom I care very deeply. Every one of them. And I know it’s important for them to remain connected to me and to others. I woke up at 5 am this morning to some really alarmist warnings of imminent Twitter breakdown.
2/6
I took some immediate precautionary measures to keep the close family safe: proton, telegram and a discord server. I have a team in place now that will focus 💯 on securing continuity and technological resilience. If need be, I will roll out a solution to KKGB followers.
3/6
That said, I would like to make a statement here, based on my understanding and I really would like @elonmusk to comment if possible. I firmly believe that Twitter services continuity is not at risk and that you should not be impressed with this fear campaign.
4/6
If Elon freezes the app indefinitely, the modulo is pretty stable, at a basic level (cert renewals and dc maintenance). If he decides to focus on ktlo + restoring basic operational knowledge, then he can keep it running to ♾ despite the fact that critical teams are impacted
5/6
True Elon is looking to implement radical product changes, some risky, maybe expediated, with little to no prior proper testing and true key leadership is all new. But hey, none of these guys is dumb, and Elon executed more complex tasks, like rockets and stuff, so chill.
6/6

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More from @INArteCarloDoss

Oct 4
Interesting summary from the one and only financials guru re $CS especially relevant with the stock price relief rally along and a 5Y CDS 30 bp easing. Here are some of my thoughts classified as : the good, the bad and the ugly. Let’s go!
1/7
The good: There was no systemic stress, as advocated by myself and many, the collapse scenario was pure hysteria. This shrug was evidenced in the synthetic indices with a compression between Fin-Main yesterday, while all main were tighter.
2/7
Other good is $CS filled all notes buy-backs without a blink. Unclear what the total amounts are but it doesn’t seem like it’s that meaningful. So no sustained panic among clients. Johannes makes point of liquidity ratios being healthy still.
3/7
Read 8 tweets
Oct 2
I love the current Fintwit polarization between the usual know it all (nah 5Y CDS of 250 is a low default probability, this is just CVA desks buying protection) and the hysterical alarmists (CS is defaulting on Monday). And the funny thing is both groups have no fucking clue
1/5
Let’s start with latter. Risk of default is very low on CS (as is reflected in CDS curve) not because they are fine but because their potential capital hole is too small not to be manageable. There is no reasonable default scenario here. But there is lots of uncertainty
2/5
Now the first group of know it all. They know it all, except Investment Banking. You can’t operate in IB with a 5Y CDS zooming in on 300. And as a matter of fact, CS will most likely have to entirely exit lev fin and most IB transitioning into Private + some structuring.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 9
At a great cost and without any prior preparation or planning, EU has taken the advantage in it’s stand-off with Putin. Let me explain.

EU paid out € 43 b to Russia in energy imports between March and August. That literally bankrolled all their war budget.

1/6
By escalating it’s economic standoff through the threat of price caps, EU pushed Putin into the corner of the « nuclear option », namely shutting down NS1. That did hurt EU considerably as explained previously. But will also shave circa € 10 b from Russian coffers in 22.

2/5
While Gazprom can and will manage to redirect the flow in the medium term through field management and more LNG exports to Asia, this loss of income is immediate and irreplaceable.

As for the EU, it’s largest Gas supplier is now Norway supplying 90 bcm to the bloc.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Sep 7
Just to lift some of the confusion that’s been spread by cumlord takes in last few days. TTF DA drop reflected the build-up in storage. With NS1 running at 20%, models were indicating a continuation of the drop towards 170 €/mwh. By shutting down NS1 completely,
1/5
Putin did a very calculated move, as is often the case. As a result, the drop was halted and despite a 90% storage fill, it’s path going forward will be entirely a function of demand destruction measures. That said, current plans which will entail industrial shut-downs
2/5
as well as lowering domestic peak consumption and an attempt at price caps will be painful but enough to cap the TTF DA equilibrium with full storage and zero NS1 flow at closer to 225-250!€/mwh vs previous peak of > 300. But and there is a big but…
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
To all the cumlordz claiming EZ energy crisis can be solved by having people freeze this winter, which is not only idiotic, but also misses the crux of the matter, here are some stats to focus minds:
1- Rising energy costs => insolvency proceeding were up 26% in DE in Aug

1/3
Source: IWH Economic Institute

2- More than 1/3 of German companies say their existence is under threat, up from 23% back in February.
Source: BDI survey of 593 companies conducted mid-Aug to early Sep.

2/3
3- 25% of those companies surveyed were looking to relocate all or part of their operations and 58% attributed their difficulties on imploding energy costs.

4- 1 in 10 companies interrupted production

5- VBW : Energy price index doubled in 1 year by July 22

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Aug 29
Defeating Putin. The offensive.

After having gathered my état-major for a strategy session, we finalized our counter-offensive plans and launched the attack.

A thread.

1/N
Gathering the troops

2/N
General Champy ensuring logistical support is invincible.

3/N
Read 7 tweets

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