1/
Russia has already lost.
Not just the war in Ukraine. It is no longer a superpower, and aside from the absurdist threat of nuking every major city on the planet, it is hardly effecting the world's political flow.
Russia has already lost.
Not just the war in Ukraine. It is no longer a superpower, and aside from the absurdist threat of nuking every major city on the planet, it is hardly effecting the world's political flow.
2/
Culturally, there's a couple of indie rock groups, a top tier ballet troup, chess masters and (of course) hockey players. Nobody reads Russian books, not even those translated. Movies?
Name three from Russia. Okay, name just one.
Culturally, there's a couple of indie rock groups, a top tier ballet troup, chess masters and (of course) hockey players. Nobody reads Russian books, not even those translated. Movies?
Name three from Russia. Okay, name just one.
3/
South Korea is of course drowning 'em out. So too Bollywood (India) and Nollywood (Nigeria), with Hollywood (US) still being the envy of an outclassed and near-bankrupt entertainment industry.
South Korea is of course drowning 'em out. So too Bollywood (India) and Nollywood (Nigeria), with Hollywood (US) still being the envy of an outclassed and near-bankrupt entertainment industry.
4/
Much like Saudi Arabia the primary reason Russia is part of the G20 is fossil fuel exports. Not bulk plastics nor finished good, but raw materials.
In many ways Russia’s single major (potential) asset is developing latent Arctic oil fields being opened up by climate change.
Much like Saudi Arabia the primary reason Russia is part of the G20 is fossil fuel exports. Not bulk plastics nor finished good, but raw materials.
In many ways Russia’s single major (potential) asset is developing latent Arctic oil fields being opened up by climate change.
5/
But. But? But won’t happen if investors pull out of oil due to acknowledgement of oncoming #CCSS. Since it is increasingly impossible to deny to save the planet, obviously this oil is unburnable. Therefore no point in building all those oil-drilling platforms and pipelines.
But. But? But won’t happen if investors pull out of oil due to acknowledgement of oncoming #CCSS. Since it is increasingly impossible to deny to save the planet, obviously this oil is unburnable. Therefore no point in building all those oil-drilling platforms and pipelines.
6/
By one estimate, these oil fields worth $500 billion.
Too bad Russia could not access 'em in the 1980s/1990s. The USSR would have been able to balance its books, remaining a solvent petro-based dictatorship like Saudi Arabia.
By one estimate, these oil fields worth $500 billion.
Too bad Russia could not access 'em in the 1980s/1990s. The USSR would have been able to balance its books, remaining a solvent petro-based dictatorship like Saudi Arabia.
7/
So what now?
Economically, by most projections, Russia will end up about 2/3s of Spain's GDP by 2040.
Someone was asked how to compare Germany GDP to Russia GDP in 2040
after ROFLing a couple minutes, the economist suggested simply, "DELETE A COUPLE OF ZEROES"
So what now?
Economically, by most projections, Russia will end up about 2/3s of Spain's GDP by 2040.
Someone was asked how to compare Germany GDP to Russia GDP in 2040
after ROFLing a couple minutes, the economist suggested simply, "DELETE A COUPLE OF ZEROES"
8/
Instead of oil, what can Putin take control of in order to prop up his faltering dictatorship given oil is less and less certain of being sold at $75/barrel.
Hmmm. Food.
Instead of oil, what can Putin take control of in order to prop up his faltering dictatorship given oil is less and less certain of being sold at $75/barrel.
Hmmm. Food.
9/
Yeah. Food.
Turn Russia into the world's breadbasket. But to really grab onto significant political clout, Putin needs to impose control over one or more cereal grains: wheat, corn, barley, rye, etc.
Yeah. Food.
Turn Russia into the world's breadbasket. But to really grab onto significant political clout, Putin needs to impose control over one or more cereal grains: wheat, corn, barley, rye, etc.
10/
So by invading Ukraine as a first step to restoring a 'Russian Empire' what Putin gets to do is control another heavy weight food exporter.
Next?
Poland.
So by invading Ukraine as a first step to restoring a 'Russian Empire' what Putin gets to do is control another heavy weight food exporter.
Next?
Poland.
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