We're back at day two of the Halifax International Security Forum. Follow this thread for some interesting things. #HFX2022 twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 
The Forum opened this morning with a fiery conversation on democracy in Iran with @AlinejadMasih. "My goal is to bring the regime down," she said.
"We the people of Iran can run the country better than these backwards mullahs."
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"We the people of Iran can run the country better than these backwards mullahs."
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Alinejad was just in Paris to pressure Emmanuel Macron to support the revolutionary movement in Iran. She just told the Forum that Macron was incredibly supportive, and promised to rally the G7 to the people of Iran's side. theguardian.com/world/2022/nov…
Yullia Kovaliv, Ukraine's ambassador to Canada, says Russian missile attacks have successfully knocked out 40% of UkrIne's energy infrastructure.
"What Russia is doing now is depriving Ukrainians of basic needs," she says.
"What Russia is doing now is depriving Ukrainians of basic needs," she says.
Ukraine is already rebuilding. Much like Kyiv is hunting for weapons and drones wherever they can be found, the Zelensky government is asking for the world's help for obtaining critical infrastructure to get the whole country back online. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
General Rajmund Andrzejczak, Chief of General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, says the explosion in Przewodów shows that "Russia is getting more aggressive." Moscow is willing to bump right up to NATO's borders.
"Winter is coming," Andrzejczak says, ominously.
"Winter is coming," Andrzejczak says, ominously.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, it destroyed 90% of the wind power generation and 50% of the solar, Kovaliv says.
This war is a climate catastrophe. But it's also hastening Europe's green energy transition. So much so that Politico recently feted Putin for his green chops. politico.eu/list/green-28-…
We're hearing from Andriy Yermak, a senior advisor to President Zelensky. He's joining from Kyiv. "Moscow always sees dark and frost as its allies," Yermak says.
"Russia is a terrorist state."
"Russia is a terrorist state."
Yermak is making Kyiv's pitch for Ukraine's ascension to the NATO alliance. Recognizing that's a long term goal, he says need for short term security guarantees. "Ukraine needs long term contributions from its allies [and] security guarantees — not assurances, guarantees."
"Attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure are going to continue," Yermak says. "Ukriane desperately needs effective missile defence systems: and quick." Before the winter, he says.
What's the short term prognosis?
Liberating Kherson is a huge victory, Yermak says. There's been more progress on the Kharkiv front. But he says he's "realistic." It's going to be a long(er) war.
Liberating Kherson is a huge victory, Yermak says. There's been more progress on the Kharkiv front. But he says he's "realistic." It's going to be a long(er) war.
Yesterday, in a statement, Zelensky said Putin is seeking a short term truce in order to regroup for a second advance in the spring.
Has Putin made any direct offers?
"We are not interested in any negotiations, any talks, that are not public and not official," Yermak says.
Has Putin made any direct offers?
"We are not interested in any negotiations, any talks, that are not public and not official," Yermak says.
Kyiv wants to negotiate for "real peace," not some trick that would prolong the war.
What does a beefed up sanction regime look like?
"It's not enough," Yermak says. He says he's waiting for a new package of sanctions from US/EU/Can, but expects it's coming.
"It's not enough," Yermak says. He says he's waiting for a new package of sanctions from US/EU/Can, but expects it's coming.
Asked about the missile landing in Przewodów, Yermak says: "It's not right to say it's a Ukrainian rocket, or a Russian rocket, before the investigation is over."
Certainly a bit of softening of Kyiv's line.
Certainly a bit of softening of Kyiv's line.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is delivering remarks now. He's making the case for continued commitment to Ukraine: Both for world security, but also as a humanitarian imperative.
"Russia has turned to Iran and North Korea to help its assault on Ukraine," Austin says.
It's giving Iram and the DPRK battlefield experience that's threatening Asia and the Middle East more broadly.
It's giving Iram and the DPRK battlefield experience that's threatening Asia and the Middle East more broadly.
Strikes on civilians and critical infrastructure are not "lapses," Austin says.
"These aren't exceptions to the rules. These are atrocities." #HFX2022
"These aren't exceptions to the rules. These are atrocities." #HFX2022
Austin is spending a bit of time talking about China's "increasingly provocative" actions around Taiwan, including intercepting NATO aircraft in international airspace over the South and East China Seas.
"We are drawing on the lessons of Ukriane to further bolster the self-defence capabilities of our Indo-Pacific partners," Austin says. 👀
Austin predicts we could see Putin engage in "profoundly irresponsible nuclear sabre rattling" this winter.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna is sitting down with journalists now. #HFX2022
On cyber attacks: "On a daily basis, we received more than 1,000" probing attempts on Ukrainian networks. "They have failed."
On cyber attacks: "On a daily basis, we received more than 1,000" probing attempts on Ukrainian networks. "They have failed."
On the possibility of transfers of MiG-29 jets from Poland to Ukraine (a transfer the U.S. blocked) Stefanishyna cryptically says the conversations are ongoing.
Stefanishyna underscores Ukraine's cooperation with the International Criminal Court, and eyes the creation of a dedicated tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.
For background: foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/12/how…
For background: foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/12/how…
"It took us a month of planning," Stefanishyna says of the recent victory in Kherson and elsewhere. "Hundreds of lives of our soldiers. Hours and hours of analyzing information with our partners. The prices of these successes are very high."
Asked about possible next fronts and possible victories for the Ukrainian military, Stefanishyna offers a cheshire smile and silence.
The UN General Assembly recently voted to call on Russia to pay reparations for its war against Ukraine. Asked for a dollar figure, Stefanishyna says: "It's hundreds of billions of years for years."
Moscow, of course, isn't keen to pay. So, what happens? "Seizure of assets have been the biggest topic of discussion I've had in conversations," Stefanishyna says.
"We're not so much thinking about this war," Stefanishyna says about a possible peace deal. "These negotiations should lead to an inability for Russia to have a hunger or appetite for the next aggression." So sacrificing land or security guarantees can't be part of the deal.
Asked about Elon Musk's hot-and-cold approach to providing his Starlink internet service to Ukraine, Stefanishyna says "we are doing some contingency planning for ourselves, but we cannot ignore that Starlink has been a signal of life for our country."
Stefanishyna says they are exploring non-Starlink companies to, at the very least, keep Kyiv online — mostly with European partners.
It was actually Ukrainians who were working at SpaceX who first proposed the Starlink plan, and who have been managing the relationship with Musk.
It was actually Ukrainians who were working at SpaceX who first proposed the Starlink plan, and who have been managing the relationship with Musk.
"We are worried that Twitter will become the major source of manipulation," Stefanishyna says.
"The willingness and then the unwillingness to continue financial support" from Starlink and @elonmusk has caused "instability," says Ukrainian deputy PM Stefanishyna. "Our government has been able to be operational because I had Starlink over my head."
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