I will be surprised if Ukraine launches a major offensive on the southern front any time soon. I can’t understand why they would. To me, it makes much more sense to attack the north and try to take back Luhansk Oblast. Attacking east from Spirne toward Lysychansk and Rubizhne.
Even attacking east from Bakhmut would make sense to me. I just don’t see Ukraine moving south. And, at the same time, it would be unconscionably stupid for Russia to attack north toward Velyka Novosilka, Hulyaipole, Orikhiv, or Zaporizhzhia.
Russia attacking north on this front would be an insane military blunder that I think would rapidly bring an end to the war.
There might be smaller attacks. Like Russia would like to take Vremivka and Novopil and some of these other smaller towns. But I do not think you will see a large scale offensive in the south. It might get hotter with intensity of smaller local fighting ramping up.
But I think Russia will try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka. And New York. To break this entire line from north to south and push it west. I think all of the major fighting will be in Donbas.
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