🧵Just a friendly reminder that at this time a year ago, social gatherings of more than 10 people were illegal in Alberta. Furthermore, those gathering had to be vaccinated. In other words, even family members couldn't come to your small Christmas party. 1/
A year ago, this was considered a normal way to broadcast a hockey game. 2/
A year ago, showing a vaccine QR code to enter a restaurant was considered normal. Today, asking if someone who recently had a heart attack was vaccinated is not. 3/
A year ago, making people spend up to a week in a quarantine hotel after returning home from a vacation was considered normal, even if they were healthy and had no symptoms.
A year ago, filling a skateboard park with sand to prevent kids from using it was considered normal.
A year ago, Alberta legalized discrimination through its Orwellian double speak program called "The Restriction Exemption Program". Some businesses even got money to promote discrimination.
A year ago in Alberta, the government was handing out $100 gift cards to encourage people to get vaccinated. The government even gave $1 million to a lucky Albertan, a teacher of course.
Don't forget what the politicians did to us. Remember that this was encouraged by senior bureaucrats and supported by an army of middle managers at every level of our governments.
A year ago, Alberta was arresting kids who just wanted to play outdoor hockey. In one instance, they even threatened a kid with a taser and knocked him to the ground with violent force.
Yesterday the Parliamentary Budget Officer put out this report, highlighting serious errors in the Fall Economic Update tabled by Freeland just before Christmas.
Here are his biggest concerns:
1) As the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimated last year, the Government’s 2023-24 budgetary deficit was worse than Budget 2024 indicated.
2) Given the uncertain and volatile global context, the Government’s economic scenarios downplay risks.
3) The demographic assumptions underpinning the Fall Economic Statement’s economic projection are not transparent, and likely inconsistent with current Government policy.
4) Expenses for contingent liabilities continue to grow and are an increasing source of fiscal risk.
5) The Public Service’s ability to produce timely, high-quality Public Accounts is deteriorating.
This should be discussed in the House of Commons, or in the Standing Committee on Finances, but unfortunately both have been suspended when Trudeau prorogued Parliament.
Freeland said the deficit is in the $62 billion range. The PBO thinks there's an additional $15 billion.
We're also learning that the tax revenue expected from the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate might be null, so that could add another $10 billion to the deficit.
CAnada is facing a potential $90 billion deficit for this fiscal year.
2/
No transparency on immigration assumptions.
The PBO is saying that immigration assumptions, which have a huge impact on GDP calculations, are all speculative.
On October 24, the Government released its 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan (ILP), which included permanent resident targets and, for the first time, temporary resident targets for international students and temporary foreign workers.
The new targets for international migration translate to a 3.2 per cent downward revision to Canada’s demographic outlook, equivalent to 1.4 million fewer residents by the end of 2027.
PBO estimates that the new immigration targets would reduce nominal GDP—the broadest measure of the government’s tax base—by 37 billion on average over the next three years.
That's going to negatively impact the debt/GDP ratio, which is the measure that Freeland used to justify her reckless borrowing.
This post created a lot of debate, and it became apparent very quickly that most Canadians don't have a clue about the difference between federal and provincial taxes, transfer payments, equalization payments and the complex relationship between Ottawa and the provinces.
I put together the following table, based on 2023 data. It's not perfect because I had to get information from half a dozen places, and it takes a lot of time to understand the various reports, and filter out what's relevant.
This is a summary of the federal taxes collected by Ottawa vs. the expenditures, sorted by province.
(I excluded the 3 territories because they're so small).
I'll go into detail in the following posts.
1/
The left side of the chart is the amount of federal taxes collected from every province.
The column marked "Federal Personal Income Taxes Collected" is simply that. I did not include corporate taxes, provincial taxes, royalties or other fees.
Ontario has 14.2 million citizens, so it sends the most tax money to Ottawa. Followed by Quebec, AB and BC. Then it drops off quickly.
2/
On a per capita basis, Albertans pay the most federal taxes.
That's simply because we have better paying jobs, and work smarter than everyone else.
At the bottom is New Brunswick. The disparity is actually wider than I expected, and explains why equalization payments are a thing.
🧵What is killing Albertans in record numbers, and why is our life expectancy going down?
The government usually publishes an annual report on causes of death, but they didn't for 2023, so I had to do my own research.
This chart (from Statista, based on Statistics Canada data) shows the annual deaths in Alberta from 2000 to 2023.
I added the trend arrows.
Up until 2019-2020 (red arrow) the number of annual deaths increased by about 2% annually. That was in line with an increasing overall population that was also slightly aging.
Then something dramatic started occurring in 2020-2021 (orange arrow). The number of deaths jumped for that year, and every year since. Not only that, but the annual change also increased to about 4%
In the past, the government of Alberta used to publish a report called "Leading Causes of Death" for a given year.
The last such report was published in September 2023 for the 2022 calendar year.
The report for 2023 is 15 months late, but something tells me the government won't publish this report any more, so I went looking for alternate sources of data....which I found.
I found the raw data for causes of death in Alberta.
There were 32,256 deaths in Alberta in 2023, sorted by almost 100 different causes.
Note: Every time I access the database, the numbers change slightly. Many sources of data do this. That's because data is constantly being modified and corrected. It usually takes 3-4 years before data become final.
In order to posses or acquire (i.e. buy or trade) a gun, you must first obtain a Possession and Acquisition Licence, commonly referred to as a PAL.
There are different licences, which allow people to acquire and possess different firearms.
The basic licence allows people to acquire non-restricted firearms, which are most hunting rifles, shotguns and small caliber "plinking" rifles.
Note: Usually if you are in possession of a firearm, you need a licence even if you are not the owner and never handle the firearm. If you let your license expire, but you still own the guns, you're breaking the law. If you have an old uncle or relative who passed away, and your aunt still has his guns, she's likely breaking the law.
🧵In 2022 Statistics Canada published a report entitled
"The Public Sector Universe"
In witch it stated:
"The size of Canada's public sector remains large"
1/
The public sector consists of all the departments controlled by the government (Fed., prov., municipal), which includes the general government sector and government business enterprises (GBEs), commonly referred to as public corporations.
In the 2022 report, there were 6,122 active units.
This table is all the departments spread across the country (4,310 in total)