David Weigel Profile picture
Nov 19 23 tweets 4 min read
Day two at #RJCinVegas. Norm Coleman kicking it off: "Yes, expectations were not matched. But do not discount what we've accomplished... the Biden legislative agenda is dead."
Coleman says the GOP still has a better bench than the Dems: "Word salad Kamala Harris. Covid hypocrite Gavin Newsom. Covid pirate Gretchen Whitmer."
"We won't flip the Jewish vote overnight, but we continue to win market share." A number repeated again and again this weekend: the FL GOP winning 45% of the Jewish vote.
Another theme here is assuring the audience that they should be less glum about the midterms bc they'll run the House and control committees. Rep. David Kustoff: "We're going to be controlling the narrative and setting the agenda."
NH Gov. Chris Sununu: "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries, and start supporting winners who can close the deal in November! Holy cow!"
Sununu wades into the Democrats' push to make Nevada the first primary."They're still counting votes in Nevada! ...New Hampshire is still going to hold the first in the nation primary, like it or not."
Now up, Rick Scott. "I committed the unpardonable sin in Washington. I challenged the status quo. I took on the Washington establishment and ran for Republican senate leader."
"This is not the end of something. This is the beginning of something. We have a thriving Republican Party outside of Washington, D.C. We need to have a Republican Party IN D.C."
"How can you win an election if people don't know what you stand for, what you're gonna do?" asks Scott. "The current strategy of most Republicans in Washington is just to be against the crazy Democrats in Washington - and they're crazy - and never outline what we're for."
"I ran for leader because Republicans in the Senate routinely cave in and let Biden and the Democrats win."
"We should stop compromising. We should make the Democrats compromise. If we fail in this challenge, we will be nothing but a speed bump on the path to socialism."
Scott explaining why Herschel Walker's win would matter: "A 50-50 seat means we have the exact same number of senators on committees, which means no legislation, no nominees, can pass without getting our votes."
Scott talked with reporters after the speech. On whether he'd run for president in 2024: "No, I'm running for the Senate."
I asked Scott if Trump played a role in picking bad candidates. "We had great candidates," he said.
Ted Cruz on one of the reasons Democrats did better than expected: "They went hard left, they energized their base, they governed as left-wing lunatics, and their base showed up in big numbers."
Cruz asks the RJC audience "pull out your cell phone." Then he amends the request: "For those of you that can..."

(Jews observing Shabbat here aren't using technology until nightfall.)
Sen. Tim Scott was the first speaker to praise a Democrat:
The hosts of the Ruthless podcast do some crowd work before Trump speaks. Who does the audience want in 2024?

Trump: Modest applause
DeSantis: 2x as much applause
Rick Scott: pin drop
Trump doing a remote Q&A now, asked about Elon's poll about restoring his account. Says the numbers are "overwhelming" (it's 52-48 right now) "I don't see it, because I don't see any reason for it."

"Truth Social is doing phenomenally well, it's through the roof."
Trump gets asked about expanding on Abraham Accords. "A lot of countries want to join but the Biden administration can't get its act together." Had he won in 2020, "10, 12, all of them" [Arab nations] would have joined, he says.
Trump asked how he can expand the GOP; interestingly, he suggests that the Dobbs decision drove up Dem turnout, but never mentions the decision or the word abortion.
"It was a tough issue, and it energized the other side. People came out on that issue for a specific purpose."
Trump's disinterest in ever mentioning that he killed Roe - he was the president who finally appointed enough SCOTUS justices to do it - is so interesting. Didn't mention it once in his launch speech!
By contrast, Pence mentions this in every speech.

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More from @daveweigel

Nov 20
Folks...

(I will thread my own stuff under this "folks" tweet.)
Haley singles out the Rs who won big: Brian Kemp, Ron DeSantis, Kim Reynolds. Talks about her own PAC's donations around country:

"We raised $10 million that went straight into those candidates' campaign accounts."
Haley argues that the GOP's weak year wasn't done to "one person" (Trump) or "bad candidates," but bad fundraising and strategy.

"Early and absentee voting are here to stay. We need to play the same game and turn out the maximum number of voters."
Read 23 tweets
Nov 19
Now that “She Said” has bombed can we talk about the incredibly bad promo campaign? Who sees this poster and says “hell yeah, take my $15” Image
Felt like a mistake to focus on the “movement,” which has petered out, instead of the specific Weinstein story, which was insane and compelling.
“Spotlight” had some of the same elements (“based on the Pulitzer winning investigation”) but trailer did much better job selling it as a story you want to see unfold. (“Spotlight” rules, I’ll fight anyone who puts it in a “forgettable Oscar winner” list)
Read 4 tweets
Nov 19
Larry Hogan addressing the Republican Jewish Coalition here in Vegas, starting w a knock on loser candidates.

"Frankly, swing voters took a look at some of our less-than-stellar nominees and decided it wasn't what they were looking for. We lost seats we should have won."
Hogan talking up Maryland's ban on BDS and its requirement for businesses to certify "that they will not engage in a boycott of Israel." Recalls sending in the National Guard to stop Baltimore riots: "We followed the Reagan program of peace through strength."
"We won suburban women, Asians, Hispanics, young voters, and more than 35 percent of the Black vote... we succeeded by growing the tent."

Folks...
Read 18 tweets
Nov 10
It's rare for the party that holds the presidency to gain Senate seats in a midterm. Happened to Rs in 2002, but the last time it happened to Ds, when they controlled the White House, was 1962.

NRSC chair that year? Barry Goldwater.
*happened for Rs in 2018 too
This is knife's edge stuff, though... to go full Goldwater Rs need to lose the rest of the NV/AZ mail vote and lose the Georgia runoff.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 8
Folks, follow the @semafor election night liveblog. I'll have some takes on this website but the Verified takes will go there. semafor.com/article/11/08/…
I'm waiting for some fuller county results in Kentucky - watching the abortion measure - but in the meantime, here's a song from Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Charles Booker.
Miami-Dade is getting the ink, but majority-Hispanic Osceola County (central Florida) is another huge DeSantis breakthrough.

2018: DeSantis 39%
2020: Trump 43%
2022: DeSantis 53%
Read 22 tweets
Nov 8
Clinton blew the 2016 election, locking in a SCOTUS that will strike down campaign finance limits on 1st Amendment grounds for the next few decades. Don't like it? Build a time machine.
2016 was a pivot election, locking in GOP gains that can't be undone unless 1) there's some 1929 crisis that blows up the GOP coalition or 2) a Democratic POTUS lucks out on court picks and builds the 5-4 liberal majority that slipped away in 2016.
"But Dave, what about expanding the court?" See point number one, that's just online debate-society stuff unless Democrats become so dominant that they can pull off a court expansion. Right now it's hopium, I don't sell that stuff.
Read 4 tweets

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