If you read the bible of TA - John J. Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Financial Market, you won't be able to make money from it, as it might tell you about all sort of studies that can tell about having higher odds of one outcome (2/n)
over another but there is much more left to be addressed to make it an implementable trading strategy.
This is the difference between a setup and strategy, which we often use interchangeably, but they are two different things. Setup is part of strategy. For example, the (3/n)
#IPOBase study that I shared, it was a complete strategy with all rules to plan and manage the trade, but what people took from it was only the setup of the #IPOBase.
This is the core reason of their underperformance despite using the same setup as they lack the knowledge(4/n)
about the nature and potential of the strategy.
Trading is extremely funny thing, and it actually needs you to be dumb to make money. It only needs a strategy which is in sync with any market tendency, and trust on that strategy to make money.
For example, do you think (5/n)
a idiotic sounding MA crossover can't make money? It will, overtime it definitely will - because it is in sync with the tendency of trend following. (am thankful to @PradeepBonde for teaching this concept of market tendency).
Then why we need more knowledge, why we need to (6/n)
@PradeepBonde understand the psychology of market participants, why we need to put ourselves to so much trouble to challenge our beliefs and explore the truth.
Reason is, to eliminate the confusions and your never ending search of picture perfect patterns (which often sounds like "dhyan (7/n)
se dekhiye aapke bagal mein (chart pe) khooni (3WTC) ho sakta hai"). I will explain it with an example.
@Trader_mcaruso is an USIC legend, and a genius trader. On Jun 10, 2021 he shared this tweet on $ROKU. Pay attention to the replies below. (8/n)
Many renowned people like @RayTL_ and others who might have worked with WON quickly termed it a #3WTC. Someone even said that O'Neil told to go ahead and buy it on closing. Many termed it even as institutional buying.
Had they paid attention to what a #3WTC denotes, they (9/n)
would have known that how they are living in illusion, way away from reality. The exact reason I told that how becoming a #rulenazi is killing IBD.
A #3WTC denotes tightness. And what you see on weekly is not exclusive to daily and other LTFs. If there is a tightness in (10/n)
weekly, there should be tightness in daily too. Because the underlying data is same - ticks makes minutes, minutes make hours, hours make days and days make weeks. If it is not tightened in daily, it won't be in weekly.
Sharing both charts to judge yourself weekly & daily.(11/n)
Is it a rule perfect #3WTC - Yes! Is it actually tightened - NO! A mere coincidence is termed as institutional accumulation by so-called gurus! Disappointing!
Hence I say I do not accept anything at its face value, regardless of from whom so ever it is coming! (12/n)
And this is what behavioral technical analysis will eliminate. This is why we need a change in the way TA is done!
Spend sometime this Sunday reading this and understanding what I am saying! Have a good day! (13/13)
- Market is bear grip - both in long and short term.
- Volume still staying around 0.45, not suggesting any extreme. There is a high chance to see a continuation of the current situation for some more time.
corner. Don't be in hurry to label any green day a start of a bull swing. Whenever market will stretch in shorter term time frame, it will give a green day or a strong opening, only to be sold off later. Beware of bull traps.
Such actions further tighten the bear grip. (2/n)
- US had a gap up start on Friday only to be cool off later. It lacks FOMO and FOMO is the life blood of any uptrend. When a beaten down market first comes into bull run, it sustains the advances rather than giving it up.
- Preferable strategy to trade in this market is (3/n)
यदि हमारे शास्त्रों में कोई सबसे दिव्य ज्ञान दिया गया है तो वो है 'अहम् ब्रह्मास्मि'! तुम में स्वयं ब्रह्म होने की क्षमता है, किंतु ब्रह्म होने की अनिवार्य शर्त एक ही है - आस्था की समाप्ति।
मुझे नहीं मालूम नास्तिकता इतनी अप्रिय क्यों है, क्यों इतनी नकारात्मक मानी जाती है। (1/n)
जनतंत्र की भांति शायद यह इतना आधुनिक विचार है जिसके लिए मनुष्यता अभी तैयार नहीं है, उसे संभालने में सक्षम नहीं है। आस्तिकता आस्था से निकलती है, आस्था में प्रश्न की संभावना नहीं, केवल समर्पण की है। यहां केवल भक्त और भगवान का संबंध संभव है।
नास्तिकता प्रश्न का अधिकार देती (2/n)
है। यहां भक्त भी कोई नहीं है और भगवान भी कोई नहीं है। यहां संबंध बराबरी का है। यह तुम्हारे ब्रह्म बनने का प्रथम सोपान है।
किंतु यदि आस्तिक बनना ही है तो नरेंद्र की तरह प्रश्न करो, और जब रामकृष्ण परमहंस मिल जाएं तो स्वयं को समर्पित करके विवेकानंद बन जाओ। (3/3)
Much thanks bro. TBH, I want to change the complete way how technical analysis is done & taught in programs like CMT - I want to make it a study of the psychology of market participants rather than keeping it limited to drawing lines and spotting patterns and hoping them to (1/n)
It makes me really disappointed when people approach me and ask whether it is a right setup. Is it a right CNH? Is it a right VCP?
They are living in illusion where they forgot the cause, and are thinking that effects they seeing is everything.
This SHOULD change. (2/n)
But this is a herculean task, not easy for a low profile person like me. Because people don't want real knowledge which works, they want well presented knowledge which is as easy as drawing lines.
But there is a cost of simplification. WON did all research, simplified it (3/n)
price movement, it means no share came into public to be absorbed.
Problem arises when institution sells and public is supposed to absorb the supply.
For example this is Dixon on 25th July, 2019, almost a month before the huge move triggered. (2/n)
2) Distribution - This is a concept of Richard Wyckoff's VSA. If the price is in a pro-long trend and suddenly you start seeing price becoming reluctant to go up but volume is increasing, and it happens consistently for several candles, it represents distribution. (3/n)
Hi Nishant, I wrote a detailed thread on why I think it can fail. While any setup can fail, but obviously some are more failure prone and some are less.
We were taught to measure base in 2 ways - depth and duration. These are the key factors which differentiates a (1/n)
flat base kind of setup from larger bases like CNH and W Bottom, VCP as pattern etc.
According to WON, a base can qualify for a flat base if it is 4 week long and upto 15% deep. But WON himself says that Flat Bases are weak bases - they work better when they emerge as a (2/n)
base on base kind of thing.
Why Flat Bases are weak - think upon it. The answer lies in the Wyckoff's Law of Cause and Effect. Larger the cause, bigger the effect it will produce.
When I started reading WON's book - something which attracted my attention was - the book (3/n)