Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Momentum Trader | Trading Coach | 'WHY' matters for me rather than 'HOW' | Super Bullish on #Internet, #Innovation, #Idea & #India! And of course #IPOBases!
Anil Joshi Profile picture YASH Profile picture dilip kripalani Profile picture 6 added to My Authors
20 Mar
#CaseStudies #IPOBase #Shankara

As mentioned, here is my next study on #IPOBases on Shankara Building Products. The public offer for Shankara opened on 22nd March, 2017 & closed on 24th March, 2017. It saw good response in public offer, got subscribed 41.88 times and got (1/n)
listed at 18% premium on 5th April, 2017.

Post listing what the stock made, we can call it a model IPO Base. It just can't be any better. The stock rose for 5 days post listing, signifying good demand before forming its left side high of the base. For 2 weeks we saw a (2/n)
little pullback, after which the stock starts carving its bottom. Continuous 6 weeks tight closing, something which can't be more constructive for an IPO base.

Lets see this in daily. There are 3 entries available here - 2 as cheat & one at standard breakout level. (3/n)
Read 20 tweets
18 Mar
Conducting study on how we would have done if we would have bought every valid #IPOBase breakout since 2017. This will help us in finding the success rate of IPO bases and also in identification of the characteristics of a high probability setup. While I wish to publish (1/n)
complete study & the results on completion, but as it includes too many stocks and multiple charts of each setup, it will become too much complicated to publish on twitter. Hence I will share some #CaseStudies here which I hope will be beneficial not only in understanding (2/n)
IPO bases but also trade management, scaling in & out, identification of warning signs and selling into weakness.

To achieve consistent success in trading, it is essential for us to reduce subjectivity in trading though we can't eliminate it completely. So, am following (3/n)
Read 27 tweets
25 Oct 20
On this very auspicious day of Shree Vijaya Dashami, I am glad to announce the launching of my Chart Reading Master Class Course, the CRMC. CRMC is actually Module A of my Mentorship Program which is currently available only to those who are personally in touch with me. In (1/n)
the past one year, whenever I shared any part of my chart studies or research work, I often get many queries about whether I will be interested in mentoring the way I read the charts, and after a long pending constant demand, I finally decided to launch this program for (2/n)
everyone who are interested.

When I first started in technical analysis back in 2013-14, I wasn't aware of the clutter and misperceptions this subject surrounds. Many widely followed theories and beliefs are highly flawed and doesn't work in the way they are expected to. (3/n)
Read 10 tweets
16 Oct 20

I decided to do case studies of super performers of past few years for research purposes. Will publish some of them here for learning purposes. Today am publishing case study of #AvantiFeeds of year 2017. (1/n) #CS1
We need a beginning point to start studying, and here we will use the point from where we'll determine that the stock is in Stage 2. This is Jan 2017 chart on weekly.

I used bar replay feature of tradingview for this study. On weekly charts these are 10 & 40 period EMAs. (2/n)
And we got our first setup very soon. This is a weekly inside bar, which can be used for a swing trade. WIBs are not bases, they're only temporary pause in upmove, so our expectations should be according to the setup. (3/n)
Read 34 tweets
20 Sep 20
Thank you everyone for participating in the poll. As expected most people do not believe that it is possible to catch tops & bottoms, & they are not entirely wrong. I will love to share my opinion on this subject as well.

I believe it is possible (1/n)

to catch tops & bottoms though not in every stock. But many stocks often show clear signs of top & bottom formation and I myself had caught many tops in past, but as I was never been interested in bottom fishing, I never tried to buy at the bottom.

Catching Tops & Bottoms (2/n)
is not possible with trend trading technique, because by defination, trend is an established direction in which the price is moving. And because you need an established top or bottom to assume trend reversal, hence making trade decisions at extremes is never possible. But (3/n)
Read 18 tweets
2 Sep 20
The Aha! moment of my career came when I started looking at price action as a study of market psychology. My thought process is built upon 4 fundamental rules which helps me understand what the market wants to tell. And due to this, I never find myself confused with any (1/n)
of the trading decisions I've to make. Let's see those 4 rules-

1) Thinking in terms of suddenness, extremes and urgency - this is important for chart reading.

2) Thinking in terms of expectations and expectation failures - helps with understand what major forces are (2/n)
doing, how they are reacting to what is looking obvious.

3) Thinking in terms of Decisiveness & Indecisiveness - helps a lot with my decision making process.

4) Thinking in terms of Risk vs Reward - Helps in refine my decision making process, this is more of an (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
25 Aug 20
Dear Team @zerodhaonline, first of all congratulations for winning the prestigious ET Startup of the Year Award. This is well deserved.

As you guys are relentlessly working towards bringing in cool features for you customers, I have a request (1/n)
& also wanna derive your attention towards a problem on kite web. Let's start with request.

Am a swing trader, I place my SL using SLM orders in morning for my open positions. Sometimes I have to leave my trading desk during market hours as well, so I remain assured. 2/n
that my SL orders will take care of any adverse situation. Now problem appears when I want to book profits in a trade. I have to put limit order for that price, but I can't do that without canceling my SLM order. And if I have to leave my trading desk in such situatio 3/n
Read 5 tweets
11 Aug 20
Most of the trades fail due to questionable setups. And in an environment like such, when everything is giving a breakout, it is very difficult to select appropriate setups. Specially due to FOMO: we often try to have every stock in our portfolio which is breaking out. 1/
Result- over trading & trading faulty setups!

The best way to avoid this is to have a proper trade selection checklist. This checklist will immediately tell you whether you should be taking the trade or not, and even if you'll be taking the trade, what are the probable 2/
risks involved. Having the correct context & a good setup is extremely important, because it is the context which actually we are trying to ride upon, and it is the setup where the accumulated supply settles & stock gathers energy for its next leg of upmove.

To help you how 3/n
Read 5 tweets
11 Aug 20
IMHO, tightness in price can't be sufficient for a trade selection if the context is not in sync with the direction of your trade. Tightness will create temporary velocity, as volatility tends to expand after contraction, but will face OH supply as it 1/
moves up. More than temporary excitement it causes due to speed, important is that your trade meets the target.

With all respect to your knowledge & experience, I trust & admire your capabilities to deal with situations even if you're playing with fire, but you have a huge 2/
fan base who is totally dedicated towards you, many might not be able to manage things in adverse situations. Secondly, we all should be experimental, without a second thought, but when we are an iconic personality, we shouldn't share our risky experiments, specially which 3/
Read 4 tweets
5 Aug 20
आज महान दिवस है, युगों युगों तक स्मरण रखे जाने वाला दिवस है। आज एक महायज्ञ के सम्पन्न होने का दिवस है। आज संघर्ष का, बलिदान का उत्सव मनाने का दिवस है। आज सत्य की विजय का दिवस है। आज विजय दिवस है 1000 साल के अत्याचारों के विरुद्ध। और आज उन (1/n) #RamMandir #RamMandirAyodhya ImageImageImageImage
बलिदानियों को याद करने का भी दिवस है जो इस दिवस के लिए 5 शताब्दियों के इस प्रचंड संघर्ष में आहूत हो गए, उनके परिवार वालों को भी याद करने का दिवस है क्योंकि व्यक्ति केवल स्वयं शहीद नहीं होता, उसके परिवारवालों का प्रचंड बलिदान भी होता है। आज कोठारी बंधुओं (2/n)#AyodhyaBhoomipoojan ImageImageImageImage
का दिवस है, आज उन सब का दिवस है जो बाबरी के अवैध ढांचे के ध्वंस में दब कर शहीद हो गए और उनकी लाशें तक नहीं मिली। आज आडवाणी जी का दिवस है, और उन सभी नेतृत्वकर्ताओं का दिवस है जिन्होंने इस आंदोलन को परिणीति तक पहुंचाया। आज विश्व की प्राचीनतम, समृद्धतम और सबसे (3/n) #Ayodhya
Read 9 tweets
3 Aug 20
New Position: #COSMOFILMS
Long @ 422


Risk 1% on portfolio Image
Sold 1/3rd @484. Reduce due to results.

Wouldn't have reduced a stock on such a beautiful igniting bar after a tight small basing. But stocks often move on expectations & sell off post event.Wasn't willing to take overnight risk on full position. Image
Yesterday bought Back sold quantity @ 484, on the break of result day's high.
Read 5 tweets
3 Aug 20
New Position: #TIIND
Long @ 520


Risk 1% on portfolio Image
Booked 1/3rd in #TIINDIA

Stop trailed above entry, so a free trade now. Image
Circuit today! Booked another 1/3rd @ 651.00 Image
Read 4 tweets
20 Jul 20
New Position: #JUBILANT
Long @ 721.5


Risk 0.6% on portfolio. Image
2nd Entry: #JUBILANT
Long @ 752

Total open risk 1% on portfolio Image

Booked 1/3rd @ 875.

Little extended + Old resistance above.

Having 3 entries 722, 752 & 760. Now stop trailed at breakeven. Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Jul 20
New Position: #DHANUKA
Long @ 773


Risk 0.6% on portfolio

*Not a very accurate WIB breakout, first entry would have been taken earlier. Missed due to lack of funds. Added on tennis ball action post WIB. Image
2nd Entry in #DHANUKA
Long @ 790

#4to8W breakout

Total open risk 1.2% of PF

Entered after squat for a better RR instead of jumping in directy at BO. Image
Booked 40% @ 885.

Stop trailed at cost. Now a risk free trade. Image
Read 4 tweets
9 Jul 20
Sharing a new concept of #RTG, a pattern which I take as a very powerful sign on charts. This is basically Red to Green transformation, #RTG - a term coined by me. Lets see it on charts. I had traded this last year in #GujaratGas, sharing that chart as well. ImageImage
There is no rocket science behind #RTG, it is quite simple. In candlestick reversal patterns, the most important thing is how deep the candle retrace. Like between Thrust, Piercing & Engulfing, the basic difference is nothing but the depth of retracement. The thrust 2/n
being the weakest one, retracing less than half of previous opposite color bar. Piercing retraces more than half, while engulfing retraces beyond the complete opposite color bar. Take the same concept- in this the candle retraces beyond the opposite color candle by the gap 3/n
Read 10 tweets
6 Jul 20
Some truths about trading

How I see trading after 6 yrs of experience

Warning: A very long thread! Keep patience!
This is the message I wrote couple of days ago in my Momentum Masters Group where we were discussing distractions emerging due to skipping on varied strategies. With the noise all around us, specially on SM platforms where people keep on sharing big MTM screenshots to lure (1/n)
gullible people for their commercial interest, it is too easy to get distracted. Apart from fat profit screenshots, there are also such people who share illogical strategies, without bothering about explaining why they'll work. On the other hand, people who aspire to make (2/n)
Read 42 tweets
23 Jun 20
New Position: #IOLCP
Long @ 395 & @ 410


2 Long Positions back to back

Total Risk 1.2% on portfolio Image
Booked 1/3rd in #IOLCP. Trailed stop for rest, already a #FreeTrade.

Generated 3.5R in 3 days! Image
Booked another 1/3 in #IOLCP

Generated 5R from this quantity.

Up 25% from entry price in 7 days. Approaching untested BRN @ 500. Holding remaining 1/3rd in the stock. Image
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun 20
New Position: #SYNGENE
Long @ 390

WIB+3 Week Consolidation Breakout

Risk 0.6% on portfolio. Image
Superb day for Syngene as well. Very high volume breakout, closed up 5.5%
Booked 40% @ 465. Stop trailed for rest @ 420. Generated 3R. Image
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun 20
New Position: #SMSPHARMA
Long @ 59

WIB with huge momentum backing

Risk 0.6% on portfolio Image
Closed in upper circuit in first day itself!
Stop triggered @ 58.40. Loss 0.05% on portfolio.

Took entry again @ 61.70 as Shakeout, this time 1.5x of previous position but risk only 0.4% on portfolio.

Lets see how it pans out. Image
Read 4 tweets
20 Jun 20
बचपन में पढ़ी साधु और बिच्छू की कहानी का बड़ा रोचक पुनरावर्तन देश की राजनीति में देखने को मिलता है। बारम्बार बिच्छू रूपी विपक्ष यह प्रोपेगैंडा फैलाने का भरसक प्रयास करता है कि कैसे मोदी की वजह से देश की सुरक्षा को खतरा है, कैसे ये सरकार कमजोर और लाचार है दुश्मनों के सामने (1/n)
आदि आदि। और देश की जनता रूपी साधु बारम्बार अपनी हाथ झटक देती है, परिणामस्वरूप बिच्छू वापस पानी में अपने अस्तित्व की लड़ाई लड़ने को मजबूर हो जाता है। लेकिन डंक मारने का अपना स्वभाव नहीं छोड़ता।

मोदी का सामना राष्ट्रवाद के मुद्दे पर करना असंभव है, केवल मूर्ख ही ऐसा करेंगे। (2/n)
और वस्तुतः मूर्ख ही ऐसा कर रहे हैं। राष्ट्र की जब भी बात होगी जनता सर्वथा मोदी को ही चुनेगी, क्योंकि उसे विश्वास है उनपर, और यही शिक्षा थी 2019 के चुनाव की, जब देश की आम ग़रीब जनता ने भी 72 हजार की रिश्वत पर देश को चुना, फिर भी मूर्खता की पराकाष्ठा है कि बुद्धि नहीं आती। 3/n
Read 4 tweets
8 Apr 20
कल @VVCFilms की #shikara देखी... क्या जमीलतरीं फ़िल्म है जिसका गोशा गोशा अपनी प्यारी सरजमीं की मुहब्बत से मुअत्तर है.. सिर्फ़ कश्मीरी पंडितों की नहीं, हर खानाबदोश की अभिव्यक्ति है यह फ़िल्म..

फ़िल्म की रिलीज़ पर एक बड़ा वर्ग ऐसा था, जो चाहता था कि इसमें (1/n)
इस्लाम का स्पष्ट उल्लेख होना चाहिए था। यहाँ दो बातें हैं- पहली यह कि यदि यह फ़िल्म वापस लोगों को community की बुनियाद पर demonize करने लगती, तो अपने मकसद को पाने में विफल होती। इस फ़िल्म का उद्देश्य दरारों को बढ़ाना नहीं बल्कि पाटना है, यह दिखाना है कि जो कुछ (2/n)
हुआ 1990 में कश्मीरी पंडितों के साथ वो कितना अन्यायपूर्ण था, और साथ ही यह भी बताना था की ऐसा किसी के साथ नहीं होना चाहिए, न कि बदले के लिए उकसाना इसका मक़सद था। दूसरी बात, किसी भी घटना को लेकर हर व्यक्ति की प्रतिक्रिया भिन्न भिन्न होती है, 19 जनवरी 1990 की रात (3/n)
Read 7 tweets