Thread by @ColbyBadhwar

Whether it's the 🇷🇺 Lancet-3, or 🇮🇷 Shahed 136, loitering munitions pose a unique threat to Ukraine. Unlike expensive cruise missiles, they are cheaper than most, if not all, of the surface to air missiles that can shoot them down. 🇺🇦 needs affordable firing solutions.🧵 1/17

Human life is priceless, & damaged infrastructure is far more costly to repair than missiles are expensive, but automatic cannon rounds are cheap and effective in the Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems (CUAS) role. Missile based firing solutions not economically sustainable. 2/17

So what systems can be provided to Ukraine that fit the bill? Ukraine already operates the German Flakpanzer Gepard, which has proven to be highly effective. The Gepard is probably the best available system due to it's capable radar and fire control systems. 3/17

Who else has Gepards kicking around and might be willing to provide them to Ukraine? 🇳🇱 sold most of theirs to 🇯🇴, there may be a few left in storage. 🇧🇪 may also have some in storage. 🇷🇴 has 43. Convincing 🇷🇴 to provide them to 🇺🇦 needs to be a top priority for NATO. 4/17

Of course there's the issue of most of the 35mm ammo currently in inventory around the world being subject to 🇨🇭 export control, but there are other producers. Ammo from Nammo in 🇳🇴 has turned up in 🇺🇦. 🇹🇷 also produces it, including ATOM airburst rounds. 5/17

Other systems include the ZSU-23-4 "Shilka", Gepard's Soviet equivalent. Although not as sophisticated as Gepard (it's radar in particular is quite inferior), Ukraine already operates this system as well and has used it to good effect, both against air and land targets. 6/17

Per @IISS_org 🇲🇩 has retired this system in the last decade, it may still be in storage. 🇵🇱 however, has 30 modernized ZSU-23-4MP "Biała", with a new targeting system and an integrated launcher for 4 Grom short range SAMs. There may be more stock Shilkas in storage too. 7/17

The Biała is slated to be replaced with a new, undetermined SHORAD system. The US could offer it's Stryker M-SHORAD at a discount in exchange for Poland donating the Białas to Ukraine. They also have the advantage of using very ubiquitous 23mm ammo. 8/17

Over to the US. 4 AN/TWQ-1 Avengers have already been pledged, and will hopefully be followed by more. The US has no equivalent to Gepard or Shilka in service, but there may be M163 Vulcan Air Defense Systems in storage. VADS lacks integrated search & tracking radar, but... 9/17

the Israeli version, the Machbet, was much more sophisticated, and could data link with an external radar. Israel recently authorized NATO countries to re-export "weapons systems containing Israeli components like electro-optical and fire-control systems." 10/17

Any VADS coming out of US storage would likely need refurbishment anyway, so they could potentially be upgraded to Machbet standard, allowing them to receive data from US made radars that Ukraine already operates. This enhances accuracy & lethality significantly. 11/17

The 20mm M61 Vulcan rotary cannon also has very ubiquitous ammunition, including High Explosive Incendiary Tracer Self Destruct, which is critical for operating in civilian areas where the risk of collateral damage is high. 12/17

The US also has the Land-Based Phalanx Weapon System (also known as C-RAM), which uses the same M61 w/ the same HEIT-SD ammo. C-RAM is radar controlled & can destroy short range ballistic targets. I think it's less likely that it would be provided, but it's possible. 13/17

The US could also provide some of it's brand new M-SHORAD Strykers. I'm also skeptical of the likelihood of this, but the opportunity to field test it, and potentially even field test the new directed energy prototypes too, should certainly be considered by the DoD. 14/17

This list is by no means exhaustive. There are other solutions, but I believe these systems:
1. Have a chance of actually being sent. Political will is usually the main limiting factor.
2. Meet Ukrainian needs for affordable yet effective firing solutions. 15/17

There are many less sophisticated systems that wouldn't be as effective, such as the myriad number of different towed AA guns without any radar control. There are also more sophisticated systems that won't be provided for political reasons. 16/17

The conversation around air defence has mostly centred around surface to air missiles, but automatic cannons can't be overlooked as an integral part of Ukrainian air defences. End 🧵 17/17