Colby Badhwar Profile picture
✍️ analysis @InsiderEng, @CEPA, & @Tochnyi; news @ArchivesDefense | Procurement, arms sales & security assistance➡️🇺🇦🇮🇱🇹🇼 | DMs open for inquiries
Mar 30 24 tweets 21 min read
🇺🇸 In Dec 2025, the US revealed the new Government-to-Government Only List: all their most sensitive military systems only available for export via the Foreign Military Sales Program. Reforming this list has long been desired by US customers. Here it is, from A to Z:

1/24 🧵⬇️ AIM-120D-3 AMRAAM
F-35
IBCS
Virginia Class
The old "Foreign Military Sales Only List" consisted of broad and duplicate categories, and has long been a point of frustration for US customers; with a desire for more systems to be eligible for the Direct Commercial Sales Program. These changes do just that.

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Mar 25 27 tweets 10 min read
Operationally, Epic Fury has been a success, but not without fault. Losses incurred by US & partner forces could have been minimized had the Trump Admin been more open to Ukrainian support; and the US Army more nimble in reforms.

Here are the receipts to prove it. 🧵 ⬇️

1/25 Infographic with satellite images showing damage at a selection of four US military sites, or sites hosting US personnel, in the Middle East in the context of Iranian strikes since February 28, 2026, using images from Planet Labs. Credit: Graphic by Nalini Lepetit-Chella and Sabrina Blanchard/AFP via Getty Images)/© 2026 Planet Labs/AFP Last August the Ukrainians pitched the White House on a defense industrial cooperation deal focused on Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and counter-UAS (cUAS). Ukraine has immense technical and operational expertise in this area. They made this presentation, obtained by Axios.

2/25 Ukrainian presentation to White House, obtained by Axios.
Mar 16 10 tweets 3 min read
🇺🇸🇺🇦 "You don't have the cards right now," Pres Trump told Pres Zelensky.

Turns out, he has some cards after all.

Trump can deny it, but things are in motion behind the scenes, and now even Israel wants to talk drones with Kyiv.

Brief summary of my latest for CEPA.

1/10 🧵⬇️ After ignoring Ukraine's Aug 2025 pitch to bolster US cUAS capabilities in CENTCOM, US officials are quietly admitting they made a big mistake. Now Ukraine is deploying teams to assist US forces, and the Gulf States in countering the drone threat. Even Bibi is calling now.

2/10 https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4101690-netanyahu-seeks-call-with-zelensky-on-countering-iranian-drones-media.html
Mar 12 7 tweets 3 min read
🇮🇱 I keep seeing a lot of incorrect information about Iron Beam, so here's a short explanation. It isn't just one system, it's a family of systems, some of which are operational, and some not, including:

▶️ Iron Beam
▶️ Iron Beam-Mobile
▶️ Lite Beam
▶️ Naval Iron Beam

1/7 🧵 Iron Beam is a 100-120 Kilowatt High Energy Laser, deployed via a 20ft container, with *advertised* capability vs UAS, mortars, rockets, artillery, and cruise missiles. It is not ballistic missile defense capable.

It is possibly in "Early Operational Capability".

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Mar 2 17 tweets 5 min read
What is the actual purpose of theater missile defense (TMD)?

I keep seeing people who work in defense policy get this question completely wrong.

It isn't "cost effective" interception of 100% of enemy threats.

So what is it?

An explanatory thread. 🧵⬇️

1/17 US Army Air and Missile Defense Vision 2028 A fundamental challenge in TMD is that interceptors are generally more expensive than their targets. This is compounded by the fact that most air defense doctrine calls for 2 interceptors to be expended per target to help ensure a probable kill.

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Feb 26 17 tweets 5 min read
Should the United States launch offensive operations against Iran?

A brief munitions analysis.

The purpose of this thread is to provide context that I find currently lacking in the discourse on this question. I'm not going to address legality or broader strategy.

🧵⬇️

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Over the last 2 and a half years, considerable numbers of munitions have been expended by CENTCOM against Iran & its proxies. This has included both missile defense interceptors, air to air missiles and strike weapons, including standoff missiles like Tomahawk.

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Feb 23 18 tweets 7 min read
🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: The Pentagon has finally released their spending plan for the $153.3 billion in additional defense spending that was included in the reconciliation package. Highlights include:

🚢 $29.2 billion for shipbuilding
🚀 $24.4 billion for air & missile defense
🏭 $24.8 billion for munitions procurement/industrial base
📈 $15.4 billion for scaling production of low cost weapons
✈️ $8.5 billion for air superiority
☢️ $10.8 billion for nuclear forces
🌏 $12.3 billion for INDOPACOM
🛠️ $16.2 billion for readiness

Will add additional details below in a thread 🧵 ⬇️

1/xxImage Shipbuilding section. Big ticket items are 2 additional Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and an additional Virginia-class submarine.

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Nov 19, 2025 8 tweets 4 min read
🇺🇸🇺🇦 The Russians have published photos of ATACMS debris from the Ukrainian strikes on Voronezh.

Here's what I gather from these images.

🧵 ⬇️

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This intact motor assembly is consistent with most of the previous instances of ATACMS debris being photographed after Ukrainian fire missions. The missing warhead suggests a successful dispersal of the APAM submunitions.

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Jul 11, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦 Notable Europe & Ukraine policy provisions in the Senate's draft FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, including an authorized increase in military aid funding:

🧵⬇️

1/6 Image The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative is extended through 2028 and an increased amount of $500 million is authorized, compared to $300 million annually in the past several years. HASC authorized $300 million and the budget request was for $0.

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Jul 2, 2025 19 tweets 6 min read
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Yesterday, POLITICO broke that the Pentagon paused some shipments of ammo to Ukraine. The decision, driven by the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is claimed by DoD to be in response to concerns about their own stockpiles.

Is that true?

No. It is not.

🧵 ⬇️ 1/19 Image Department of Defense stocks of a wide variety of munitions are undoubtedly depleted due to the War in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, but the devil is always in the details. POLITICO reports that the pause has impacted both deliveries under PDA & USAI.

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Apr 28, 2025 24 tweets 8 min read
🚨🇺🇸 Looks like ATACMS is back on the menu, boys!

The House & Senate Armed Services Committees have released bill text detailing the $150 billion increase in defense spending, as part of Congressional Republicans' reconciliation package.

Here's select highlights. 🧵 ⬇️

1/20 Image Pictured is a high level overview of where the money would go, and here is the link to the bill text:


I will be focusing mostly on procurement & RDTE items that are of interest to me. I don't follow shipbuilding, ask Zach about that over on BS.

2/20 armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/…Image
Apr 10, 2025 14 tweets 5 min read
🇺🇸 President Trump has signed an expected Executive Order on reforming the United States' arms sales (Foreign Military Sales [FMS] & Direct Commercial Sale [DCS]) processes.

Thread on my initial takeaways. 🧵⬇️

1/14 Image Currently security cooperation (SC) responsibilities are split between the Departments of Defense and State; each has different programs under their purview but agreement between both is required for basically all of them in order to approve a SC case (FMS, DCS, etc).

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Apr 7, 2025 11 tweets 5 min read
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 Russia has suffered nearly 800,000 casualties in Ukraine. ~Unclassified estimate from US European Command

Read through the thread below to see what else General Cavoli shared in his written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee. 🧵⬇️

1/10 Image Losses:

💥3000 Tanks
💥9000 AFVs
💥13,000 artillery systems
💥400 air defense systems

During the hearing he actually said 4000 tanks, which is closer to OSINT tallies; 9000 AFVs is likewise a conservative figure; 13,000 arty must include mortars; 400 AD looks about right.

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Dec 16, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read
🇺🇸🇺🇦 As President Joe Biden serves out his final weeks in office, he still has the opportunity to correct his past mistakes, and put Ukraine on better footing as we start the new year. Here's what should be done. ⬇️

🧵 1/9 Artwork by The Insider. If you want to read beyond these highlights, check out my latest for @InsiderEng, which explores this in more length. I also touch on the question of what we might expect from the incoming Trump Admin and the new Congress in the US.

2/9

theins.press/en/opinion/col…
Nov 19, 2024 14 tweets 4 min read
❗🇺🇸🇨🇳 "US Army and Joint Electronic Warfare (EW) forces in the
Indo-Pacific are outnumbered, outranged, and outpowered by those possessed by the People's Liberation Army (PLA)." -Army Science Board White Paper on EW

Let's see what else it has to say?

🧵⬇️ 1/14 Image "there is no executive agent or proponent [for EW] designated at the highest level of the Army to ensure appropriate resourcing of critical functions, equipment, training, and staffing."

A Deputy Assistant Secretary for EW, reporting to ASA(ALT) could be created for this.

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Sep 23, 2024 20 tweets 6 min read
In 1 week, at the end of Fiscal Year 2024, $5.925 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority is set to expire. If this happens, it will cripple the US' ability to support Ukraine. We've seen this story before. Will Congress and the Biden Admin manage to avert disaster?

🧵⬇️ 1/20 Artwork via The Insider. https://theins.press/en/opinion/colby-badhwar/274715 This is a summary of my latest piece for @InsiderEng, please do check it out. This thread will also include some additional details that have been learned since the column was posted.

2/20theins.press/en/opinion/col…
Sep 3, 2024 18 tweets 7 min read
🇺🇸 On Friday, the State Department hit RTX (Raytheon) with a $200 million penalty for committing 750 violations of Arms Export Control Act & its associated International Traffic in Arms Regulations, including unauthorized exports to 🇮🇷🇱🇧🇷🇺🇨🇳. The details are shocking. ⬇️

🧵 1/18 https://www.state.gov/u-s-department-of-state-concludes-200-million-settlement-resolving-export-violations-by-rtx-corporation/ The Arms Export Control Act (AECA) and International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) govern the export of defense articles via commercial transactions. Any company involved in any aspect of the defense industry is very familiar with these lengthy & strict regulations.

2/18 https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-22/chapter-I/subchapter-M
Aug 21, 2024 22 tweets 8 min read
Better to ask for forgiveness than for permission: Ukraine's Kursk Operation has outmanoeuvred both Russia & United States.

The Biden Administration has been boxed in and forced to give tacit approval to an operation they didn't know of & are still reticent about.

1/22 🧵 Image If you want my full analysis on Kursk, check out my latest piece for @InsiderEng. It was submitted a week ago, so it predates the latest news. This thread will focus on the key grand strategic outcomes; no tactical or operational analysis here.

2/22

theins.press/en/opinion/col…
Jul 31, 2024 21 tweets 7 min read
𝗔 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗮𝗶𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗨𝗸𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲?

Last month Kongsberg (🇳🇴) unveiled their new Mobile, Short Range Air Defense System (M-SHORAD): NOMADS.

Germany is already considering procuring it for Ukraine.

Here's what NOMADS has to offer.

🧵 1/21 Image 𝗡𝗢𝗠𝗔𝗗𝗦: 𝗡ati𝗢nal 𝗠aneuver 𝗔ir 𝗗efence 𝗦ystem, has been developed following a 2019 contract with the @FMateriell (🇳🇴) to fulfill a mobile, short range air defense requirement for the Army. 6 vehicles were ordered with 3 already delivered & successfully tested.

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Jul 29, 2024 21 tweets 6 min read
Ukraine is contending with the classic missile defense dilemma: interceptors are often more expensive, and certainly more scarce, than the targets they seek to destroy.

The solution?

Ukraine must be empowered by President Biden to shoot the archer, not just the arrow.

1/21 Image I don't know who coined this idiom, but the oldest instance I found of it in the context of missile defense is from a 1988 @SteveEngelberg article in NYT. An officer in the US Navy used it to illustrate their air and missile defense doctrine to Engelberg.

2/21 https://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/04/world/failures-seen-in-safeguards-on-erroneous-attacks.html
Jul 24, 2024 25 tweets 8 min read
𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗝𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗻 𝗯𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱?

"Yes", is a pretty popular sentiment in pro-Ukraine circles. However, the key question is, would it result in substantive change? Is Sullivan the true cause of Ukraine's woes, or is he just a convenient scapegoat?

1/25 Brendan Smialowski / AFP - Getty Images Officially the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (APNSA), or more commonly, the National Security Advisor, Sullivan has held the role since the beginning of the Biden Administration. It is one of the most powerful positions in the White House.

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