๐บ๐ธ President Trump has signed an expected Executive Order on reforming the United States' arms sales (Foreign Military Sales [FMS] & Direct Commercial Sale [DCS]) processes.
Thread on my initial takeaways. ๐งตโฌ๏ธ
1/14
Currently security cooperation (SC) responsibilities are split between the Departments of Defense and State; each has different programs under their purview but agreement between both is required for basically all of them in order to approve a SC case (FMS, DCS, etc).
2/14
Apr 7 โข 11 tweets โข 5 min read
๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ฆ๐ท๐บ Russia has suffered nearly 800,000 casualties in Ukraine. ~Unclassified estimate from US European Command
Read through the thread below to see what else General Cavoli shared in his written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee. ๐งตโฌ๏ธ
1/10
Losses:
๐ฅ3000 Tanks
๐ฅ9000 AFVs
๐ฅ13,000 artillery systems
๐ฅ400 air defense systems
During the hearing he actually said 4000 tanks, which is closer to OSINT tallies; 9000 AFVs is likewise a conservative figure; 13,000 arty must include mortars; 400 AD looks about right.
2/10
Dec 16, 2024 โข 9 tweets โข 4 min read
๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ฆ As President Joe Biden serves out his final weeks in office, he still has the opportunity to correct his past mistakes, and put Ukraine on better footing as we start the new year. Here's what should be done. โฌ๏ธ
๐งต 1/9
If you want to read beyond these highlights, check out my latest for @InsiderEng, which explores this in more length. I also touch on the question of what we might expect from the incoming Trump Admin and the new Congress in the US.
โ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ "US Army and Joint Electronic Warfare (EW) forces in the
Indo-Pacific are outnumbered, outranged, and outpowered by those possessed by the People's Liberation Army (PLA)." -Army Science Board White Paper on EW
Let's see what else it has to say?
๐งตโฌ๏ธ 1/14
"there is no executive agent or proponent [for EW] designated at the highest level of the Army to ensure appropriate resourcing of critical functions, equipment, training, and staffing."
A Deputy Assistant Secretary for EW, reporting to ASA(ALT) could be created for this.
2/14
Sep 23, 2024 โข 20 tweets โข 6 min read
In 1 week, at the end of Fiscal Year 2024, $5.925 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority is set to expire. If this happens, it will cripple the US' ability to support Ukraine. We've seen this story before. Will Congress and the Biden Admin manage to avert disaster?
๐งตโฌ๏ธ 1/20
This is a summary of my latest piece for @InsiderEng, please do check it out. This thread will also include some additional details that have been learned since the column was posted.
๐บ๐ธ On Friday, the State Department hit RTX (Raytheon) with a $200 million penalty for committing 750 violations of Arms Export Control Act & its associated International Traffic in Arms Regulations, including unauthorized exports to ๐ฎ๐ท๐ฑ๐ง๐ท๐บ๐จ๐ณ. The details are shocking. โฌ๏ธ
๐งต 1/18
The Arms Export Control Act (AECA) and International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) govern the export of defense articles via commercial transactions. Any company involved in any aspect of the defense industry is very familiar with these lengthy & strict regulations.
2/18
Aug 21, 2024 โข 22 tweets โข 8 min read
Better to ask for forgiveness than for permission: Ukraine's Kursk Operation has outmanoeuvred both Russia & United States.
The Biden Administration has been boxed in and forced to give tacit approval to an operation they didn't know of & are still reticent about.
1/22 ๐งต
If you want my full analysis on Kursk, check out my latest piece for @InsiderEng. It was submitted a week ago, so it predates the latest news. This thread will focus on the key grand strategic outcomes; no tactical or operational analysis here.
Last month Kongsberg (๐ณ๐ด) unveiled their new Mobile, Short Range Air Defense System (M-SHORAD): NOMADS.
Germany is already considering procuring it for Ukraine.
Here's what NOMADS has to offer.
๐งต 1/21
๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ฆ: ๐กati๐ขnal ๐ aneuver ๐ir ๐efence ๐ฆystem, has been developed following a 2019 contract with the @FMateriell (๐ณ๐ด) to fulfill a mobile, short range air defense requirement for the Army. 6 vehicles were ordered with 3 already delivered & successfully tested.
2/21
Jul 29, 2024 โข 21 tweets โข 6 min read
Ukraine is contending with the classic missile defense dilemma: interceptors are often more expensive, and certainly more scarce, than the targets they seek to destroy.
The solution?
Ukraine must be empowered by President Biden to shoot the archer, not just the arrow.
1/21
I don't know who coined this idiom, but the oldest instance I found of it in the context of missile defense is from a 1988 @SteveEngelberg article in NYT. An officer in the US Navy used it to illustrate their air and missile defense doctrine to Engelberg.
"Yes", is a pretty popular sentiment in pro-Ukraine circles. However, the key question is, would it result in substantive change? Is Sullivan the true cause of Ukraine's woes, or is he just a convenient scapegoat?
1/25
Officially the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (APNSA), or more commonly, the National Security Advisor, Sullivan has held the role since the beginning of the Biden Administration. It is one of the most powerful positions in the White House.
2/25
Jun 18, 2024 โข 16 tweets โข 5 min read
Is Russian Electronic Warfare successfully jamming the GPS signals on American provided precision guided munitions to the point that Ukraine can no longer effectively employ them?
No. No it is not.
Many people seem to believe so though. So what's really going on?
๐งต
1/15
A lot of the public discourse around Russian EW has focused on their efforts at GPS interference and denial. This has arguably been a successful Russian info operation. Lost in the conversation is that the most vulnerable systems to EW are commercial off-the shelf ones.
2/15
May 9, 2024 โข 11 tweets โข 4 min read
๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ There are many examples of lacklustre support to Ukraine, but Canada's @RoshelDefence isn't one of them. They have delivered 1000 armoured vehicles to Ukraine, and counting.
This is a thread of highlights from my exclusive interview with Roshel's CEO, Roman Shimonov.
1/11
Please do read the entire interview, linked below, @ArchivesDefense. My thanks to @ThrustWR and the team there for publishing it in full. Here are some of the most interesting things that Roman had to say though. โฌ๏ธ
This is thread three of three on the national security supplemental. Today I'll be explaining the Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (IPSSAA).
$5,870,242,000 is for the US Department of Defense
$2,000,000,000 is for Foreign Military Financing program
$250,000,000 is for economic assistance via the International Development Association
2/17
Apr 30, 2024 โข 35 tweets โข 12 min read
This is the second of three threads on the national security supplemental that passed Congress last week. Today I'll be explaining the $26.4 billion Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (ISSAA).
ISSAA appropriates a total of $26,382,000,000, of which:
$7.84 billion is for the US Department of Defense
$8.7 billion is for security assistance to Israel
$9.15 billion is for humanitarian aid for the region
The $690 million balance is for miscellaneous purposes.
2/34
Apr 25, 2024 โข 37 tweets โข 13 min read
The US Congress finally passed the $95 billion National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel & Indo-Pacific allies, and invests in the US Defense Industrial Base.
But what is actually in the bill, and where does the money go?
๐งต 1/36
The Supplemental is actually comprised of 4 bills, which were packaged together by the US House under 1 rule, passed and messaged to the Senate. It includes Supplemental Appropriations Acts for Israel, Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific, and an omnibus sanctions bill.
2/36
Apr 16, 2024 โข 38 tweets โข 16 min read
2 years into Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, & Canada still has no plan to meet it's NATO commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence.
Last week, National Defence ๐จ๐ฆ (DND) released a defence policy update, projecting spending of only 1.76% by FY29.
And what about 155mms?
๐งต 1/37
This isn't a comprehensive summary of everything in the policy update. I'm just going to cover some key pieces, and if you're interested in learning more I would suggest you read it for yourself. All figures discussed in this thread are Canadian $s.
๐จ๐ฅ BREAKING: There is a fire at Scranton Army Ammunition Plant. The Scranton Plant, a government owned contractor operated facility, is the main producer of 155mm artillery shell bodies in the United States. facebook.com/share/p/N2qptWโฆ
Apr 8, 2024 โข 110 tweets โข 33 min read
On March 12, the Biden Admin finally announced a new Drawdown package for ๐บ๐ฆ, ending an 11 week moratorium.
For 11 weeks they maintained they would not provide any new aid. They watched as ammo ran out. They watched as Avdiivka fell. Then they reversed course.
Why?
1/109
๐งต
This thread is on US Security Assistance to Ukraine (specifically Presidential Drawdown Authority), a topic I have been covering for 2 years now. There is no TL;DR. This is a complicated subject that I hope I have made understandable for you. 2/109
Sep 18, 2023 โข 80 tweets โข 27 min read
ATACMS. What is it? Why does it matter so much? How many are there? How many will Ukraine get? Every question you could possibly have, answered. It's the thread you've all been waiting for... ๐งต (1/72)
I can't TL;DR this. You're going to want to read all of it, but the key takeaway is, ๐บ๐ฆ needs ATACMS to destroy time sensitive targets & reduce expenditure rates of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG. Without it, certain high value Russian assets are largely safe from destruction. (2/72)
Sep 8, 2023 โข 4 tweets โข 1 min read
๐จ It's the day we've all been waiting for: ABC News reports that the US will finally supply Ukraine with ATACMS.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-seโฆ
"The US has found it has more ATACMS in its inventory than originally assessed, the two officials told ABC. The serviceability of the rediscovered stockpile is not yet clear, nor which specific type of missiles it contains."
Lmao did they forget about their expired inventory?
Aug 20, 2023 โข 24 tweets โข 8 min read
US military aid to ๐บ๐ฆ will determine the outcome of this war. Congress has already appropriated & authorized significant sums, but the Biden Admin has continuously slow walked & rationed every major weapon system delivered. Let's review the past, and then look forwards. ๐งต(1/24)
This thread will focus on Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows delivery of equipment from US stock to meet Ukraine's immediate needs. Congress has authorized $32.2 billion in PDA since the invasion began: $14b in FY22 & $18.2b in FY23. (2/24)