#ThisIsNotPollReporting
Article in Herald-Sun claimed Redbridge poll showed "support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge"
Sure it did - on primary votes. Published 2PP was 53.5 to ALP (probably an underestimate)
#VicVotes
Article in Herald-Sun claimed Redbridge poll showed "support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge"
Sure it did - on primary votes. Published 2PP was 53.5 to ALP (probably an underestimate)
#VicVotes
Another similar report at news.com.au has "Concern within the Labor Party is mounting, with polling revealed by the Herald Sun this week predicting a possible hung parliament."
1. The poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.
2. The poll snapshots voting intention, not seats in parliament.
3. If you say something's merely possible, that's not a prediction.
4. The chance of a hung parliament if votes cast matched the Redbridge poll is negligible.
2. The poll snapshots voting intention, not seats in parliament.
3. If you say something's merely possible, that's not a prediction.
4. The chance of a hung parliament if votes cast matched the Redbridge poll is negligible.
(And 5 - the Redbridge poll only shows Labor and the Coalition irrelevantly tied on primary vote if undecideds are redistributed proportionally. By the standard method of redistributing leaning voters by leaning, Labor has a narrow primary vote lead, not to mention 2PP).
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