Thread by @alaskanrobby

In Alaska, we likely know 3 things going into Wednesday's RCV count:

Rep. Peltola (D), Sen. Murkowski (D), and Gov. Dunleavy (R) will be re-elected

House stands at 20 D/I - 19 R, with 1 race likely in the air til RCV

Senate is 9D - 11R with a VERY likely Bipartisan Coalition.

RE: House, two candidates lead with two R's splitting the vote: Featherly (I) & Wells (D).

Only Wells has a reasonable chance. In each race, assuming 5% of the 3rd place R goes to the D/I: Wells needs Eibeck to exhaust 25% of his votes. Featherly needs Bieling to exhaust 50%!

RE: Senate — the majority that actually passes the budget has been Dems + R's Steadman, Stevens, and Bishop.

With 9D's, plus R's Merrick and likely Giessel, you COULD have:
A 14D/R - 6R Senate;
A 21 D/I/R - 19R House;
And a Trump-endorsed Governor! Buckle up for #akleg, folks.

Things we don't know:

Will Giessel (R) win after Cacy's (D) votes are re-allocated? (most likely)
Will Sumner prevail in the all-GOP 4-person Mat-Su race for the House?
Will Bjorkman defeat fellow Republican Tuckerman Babcock after Cizek's (I) votes are re-allocated?

Fixed some numbers here and did an alternative projection with Wells and Featherly winning over more Republicans!

https://twitter.com/alaskanrobby/status/1594646284157472769?s=20&t=0EW8umJNFYP0ZEGDXzsVCQ