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Nov 21 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This by @benthompson

“To put all of this a different way, if Iger is coming back because he disagrees with Chapek’s tactics, well, that strikes me as a bad idea: Chapek played the hand that was dealt him by Bob Iger.”
“To put it another way, the worst news for Disney would be if its imminent struggles are not due to Chapek’s tactics or Iger’s strategy but rather a secular change in the market that no CEO could ultimately outrun”
If structural determinism lies at the heart of media co's fate, DIS has the best chance to escape the same fate. Parks and Studio (I called IP Co) exist outside the linear bundle. But cable nets were such high ROIC and FCF, that even for DIS it's tough.

I go back to the Fox deal. I didn't like it at the time, and I don't think it has served them well (obviously they didn't "get" Sky because Comcast gonna Comcast)
The mix shift at Disney that was taking place had been painful, but was inevitable.

And tbf to Disney, covid was devastating on multiple fronts. One area that Iger has a chance to really move the needle on is getting D+ back to its originally intended role. Now that everyone sees sub growth in and of itself is not a means to an end.

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More from @modestproposal1

modest proposal Profile picture
Nov 21
How broad a catch all is "Information" in the CES? Are there tech jobs captured in some other services category (e.g. Amazon corporate in Retail Trade or FinTech in Financial activities, etc)? I'm surprised if employment is down in tech vs 2001 so I prob screwed something up. Image
Ok, so this is a useless classification and has no bearing on employment in tech. The decline is from telecomm and publishing. And this doesn't appear to have much if any "tech" in it tbh. h/t @pearkes Image
BLS estimates there are 1.3M software developers, but I'm struggling to find how to get this longitudinally. Image
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Nov 19
“At some point that afternoon, though, Platini’s reservations melted away. What happened to change his mind over lunch with a late-arriving Sarkozy and the two Qataris remains, more than a decade later, resolutely obscure and fiercely contested”
“Even the Qataris believed his verdict was a crushing blow. One official who worked on Qatar’s bid admitted the evaluation report was “embarrassing.”
“It’s done”

“Even before Blatter opened the envelope to confirm that the Middle East would host the World Cup for the first time, Al Jazeera, the news network based in Doha, had broadcast news of Qatar’s victory.”
Read 7 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Nov 19
Oooh boy there’s a lot going on in this story. More than anything though, Stephenson, Stankey and AT&T are who we thought they were.

nytimes.com/2022/11/19/bus… nytimes.com/2022/11/19/bus…
“Widely admired” 😀
“Mr Stephenson had made his reputation in large part on his deal-making acumen” 😀

Meanwhile Jeff Bewkes is like you’re so good at making deals we should talk
Read 9 tweets
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Nov 16
O
M
G
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Nov 12
Have complicated and in some cases conspiratorial threads. But isn’t this most likely explanation? They were overlevered, illiquid and suffered losses. Thought they could trade their way out of it or buy time to make it whole. Not at all an excuse. But isn’t it most likely?
Plenty examples of frauds and ponzis that didn’t set out to defraud. Had an idea, maybe worked for a little, but at some point losses suffered and fateful decision is made. Instead of fessing up, raise new money or improperly use others to paper over it, hoping to make it back.
The minute that path is chosen it’s all consuming though. Everything is now in service of a fraud. And things eventually spiral out of control.
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Oct 21
I am new to rails, so prob a dumb Q. But is there risk these cos have over optimized the last decade+? Longer trains, smaller crews, etc all make sense from an inefficient starting point, but can be taken too far. STB seems to think so. And then you're reliant more on volumes?
I get the market structure, pricing power, FCF generation, and strong ROIC. Just wondering if some of the huge tailwinds that were in their control turn neutral or potentially into headwinds, and the earnings algo becomes more reliant on things less in their control like volume.
Here is Eric Mandelblatt on ILTB from earlier this year:

"So in order to be right on our thesis, these volumes are really going to start to structurally grow 3% or 4% a year."
Read 4 tweets

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