Thread by @carlosodio

A rough, preliminary snapshot of Latino voting in the midterm based on the precinct-level results the @EquisResearch team has analyzed so far, just in time for Thanksgiving…

First, big picture: the GOP narrative of a Latino red wave hinged on (1) a big showing in FL, (2) signature wins in TX, (3) gains in AZ and/or NV. Short version: they passed the first test and failed on the other two.

How do you grade Dem performance with Latinos? They got the job done; they held the margins they needed to win. Caveats: FL stands out as an untreated wound; & there was no rebound to 2018 levels anywhere.

Florida: as bad for Dems as everyone says. Republicans won a majority of the Hispanic vote in the state for the first time since 2006. This is a place where exits and results likely align well.

Compare Crist (or Demings) to previous Dem support in Miami-Dade: the worst under-performance is in the most Hispanic precincts. Early signs are that GOP gains were greatest among non-Cuban, non-PR voters…the “LatAm” voters among whom Dems got 70% as recently as '16.

If there’s uncertainty in the FL exits & precinct data, it’s among Puerto Ricans. Exits had Rubio/DeSantis at 54 & 56 among PR, AP Votecast had 50 & 47, MEVP had 46 & 52. Precinct analysis in Osceola points to a big drop from previous years but still likely Dem majorities.

Outside of Florida: a picture of stability. You had shifts. But whereas in Florida the shifts among Latino voters could be measured in yards, elsewhere it was a matter of inches.

Texas: start with the RGV, bc it got all the media coverage. Mayra Flores, figurehead for GOP Latinos, lost her bid. And Abbott matched but didn’t exceed Trump’s 2020 performance. (Tbh, not what I expected.)

AZ & NV: in the two marquee Senate races, a picture of perfect stability. Here’s Mark Kelly in Maricopa and Yuma. Masters didn’t make any improvement on Trump support.

Here’s CCM in Clark County (Las Vegas)... No sign of Laxalt gains. #Stability

In both AZ and NV, the Dem gubernatorial candidates ran slightly behind Biden (and this year’s Senate Dems). Yet, again, nothing dramatic—but enough to make a difference.

Here’s another way to look at it in Maricopa’s most Latino precincts: compared to Biden ‘20, marginal improvement for Kelly, marginal decline for Hobbs.

Something I got wrong: I thought Kelly and CCM would both need to crack the 65% mark among Latinos to win. This was based on the assumption that WHITE support would drop from ‘20 levels. Clearly it didn’t. Both seemingly won by keeping the anti-Trump coalition together.

PA: In Philly’s most Latino precincts, Fetterman outperformed Biden. (We also did a spot-check in Reading, PA and got the same.)

WI: the most Latino-heavy precincts in Milwaukee (city), Barnes underperformed Biden. (Gov. Evers, though, matched Biden while slipping from his ‘18 showing.)

There’s a story here we can’t fully tease out yet, but the first looks are eye-catching: turnout was low in key spots. For now, I’ll say we shouldn’t assume too much about how those who abstained would have voted, without more data…

What I haven’t covered here: California. New Mexico. Some other geographies. In due time!

Closing thought: stability among Latinos was best-case scenario for Dems in 2022, and that’s what they got. There was discontent, but Republicans just weren’t able to close the deal. Believe me: no R would be satisfied with ‘20 levels of Latino support going forward.

It took Dems a great deal of toil & treasure to battle to a point of stability with Latino voters. Right now they should celebrate. Next week they should start putting in the work to strengthen their coalition for the ‘24 election. FL shows what happens when you don’t.

If Twitter is going down, I’m going out with charts.

With deep appreciation to @DrewJOlsen #HectorPortillo, tableau-master @mjavierrod, our chief analyst @rachelmstein1 & the whole X crew.

Y-axis says Dem support but I assure you it is GOP support. My bad!

Corrected RGV slide here (+ a new cut)! Finding stays the same, but with a little more texture.

https://twitter.com/carlosodio/status/1594917983343747072?s=20&t=oATNBcJC4a9WCBvF4Bj-lQ