Co-founder, @EquisResearch | Film Twitter lurker | Alum, @neworganizing, @barackobama | Not a pollster I just poll a lot
Nov 12 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Sharing a preliminary, step-back look at Latino shifts based on precincts & dense locales…
Before I do, remember: we should study big Latino shifts, but that is separate from a diagnosis of how Trump won, which can't be reduced to any single demo.
Let’s get this out of the way: this looks & sounds like a realignment. Trump’s % will be at least 13pp higher in '24 than it was in '16 (from ~30% to ~43-48%). Let's wait for Pew & esp. Catalist.
Could this be unique to Trump? Functionally doesn’t matter as Trump Era continues.
Aug 14 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
New Equis poll out today, with further signs that the Kamala Harris entrance reset the Latino vote.
Where Biden was only +5 among Latinos in the 7 most critical states, Harris is +19 after two weeks as the candidate.
Memo from me/@mariadfq & toplines: weareequis.us/research/xssau…
How’d she do it so quickly? Most of the Harris pick-ups were previously Dem-supporting: voted for Biden in ‘20 but had become disillusioned. She saw a huge swing among Latinos under 40 (43% -> 60%). And tellingly scooped up a large share of Latino double-haters.
Jul 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Early read on Harris from a NV poll of Latinos (7/11-7/15): from the jump, the VP wins back some Latinos who had slipped away from Biden — and notably pulls a chunk who said they would sit out a Biden/Trump rematch. (This is in-poll mov’t.)
The data *suggests* (it’s noisy) that Harris does exceedingly well with Latino “double haters” in NV & wins a plurality of those who “somewhat disapprove” of Biden (whereas Biden was losing the latter).
Nov 21, 2022 • 22 tweets • 7 min read
A rough, preliminary snapshot of Latino voting in the midterm based on the precinct-level results the @EquisResearch team has analyzed so far, just in time for Thanksgiving…
First, big picture: the GOP narrative of a Latino red wave hinged on (1) a big showing in FL, (2) signature wins in TX, (3) gains in AZ and/or NV. Short version: they passed the first test and failed on the other two.
Nov 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A PSA: don't blame disinfo for what Latinos do or don't do in this election. Latinos are NOT more susceptible to disinformation than other groups; to say so suggests Latino voters are somehow less savvy than others.
Disinformation is real--we see it proliferating right this moment--but it is best thought of & addressed as a threat to democracy, not to Democrats.
Nov 8, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
LATINO EDAY THREAD #3 - What to watch tonight & the case for patience, until we make it out west. But let’s start with Florida…
Florida should be first out the gate & it’s gonna be a hard lesson for Dems after 6 years of relative neglect. DeSantis should win a majority of Hispanic voters, a return to pre-08. Our polls suggest Rubio might too.
Bad…BUT: it doesn’t tell you about Latinos nationally.
Nov 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
LATINO EDAY THREAD #2: the Whitney Houston edition. “How will I know (how Latinos voted)?”
So how does a conscientious observer measure the levels of support among Latinos? True answer is that you wait for @Catalist_US in early 2023 (+ other validated studies). But I know you’re not that patient. So here’s what to do tonight…
Nov 8, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
LATINO EDAY THREAD #1 - The Warm-Up - The first of a few threads prepping for tonight. Later: some data we’ve been holding back. Right now: let’s start with some scene-setting…
The Latino vote question of 2022: Trump reached ~37% support among Hispanic voters in ‘20 (up from 29% in ‘16). Will that level of support persist for GOP, reverse, or increase?
Sep 19, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
@EquisResearch is out today with a memo for reporters and observers, sharing the stories we are seeing about Latino voters in our data… bit.ly/latinosinlimbo
Our takeaways are consistent with the new NYT/Siena: in most states, Latino support for Dems has neither declined since 2020 nor rebounded. Latino voters are in limbo — but Rs aren't closing the deal. Great uncertainty in the vote, and in the polling!
The latest @davidshor interview is insightful, but there are some assertions on the Latino vote that require clarification, esp. on immigration. It’s important to get this right, given the implications for policymaking & political strategy.
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
First, a pause to say Equis data shows few indications of vote-switching among Latinos in the way David means (outside of Miami, where it was rampant). There weren't so many Clinton16 -> Trump 20 voters as there were Didn’tVote16 -> Trump20. But we’ll save that for later.
Jan 6, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
It would be important to see @univisionnews finally apply its news standards to affiliate radio station Radio Mambí-- whose hosts have been airing wild conspiracy theories while rioters occupy the US Capitol.
Mambí featured guest is currently defending the current coup attempt. "They've stolen three elections in our faces. We're not going to allow it....They [rioters] haven't attacked anyone. They've attacked the government."
Nov 4, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There’s clearly a massive problem in Miami-Dade, but it’s not the whole story in Florida. Consider: **Even if Biden had pulled off the same margin in Miami-Dade as Hillary Clinton in 2016, he still would have lost Florida by a 170K vote margin.** The issue is broader/deeper.
Biden underperformed Clinton in 54 of Florida’s 67 counties. Given Miami-Dade’s size, it accounts for a large part of the shift (58%), but not its entirety. There was lagging performance among various groups...
Aug 1, 2020 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
Listen, this ad seems laughable but it's actually quite sinister. Worth pulling back the curtain on its true intent... (Spoiler: it isn’t trying to “appeal” to Latino voters.)
First of all, this is clearly a dirty tricks outfit. Their name is basically a Nixon tribute (remember the Committee to Re-Elect the President?) I hesitated in sharing their video, because we shouldn’t amplify disinfo. But the @nytimes (!) started it & others have followed.
Jul 24, 2020 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Make sure you’re paying attention to the ads the Trump campaign has been putting out in Spanish. Some links below. And, first, a few notes:
All the ads use Goya as a hook (strange times). Each is directed at a distinct sub-ethnicity (Mexican, Cuban, Puerto Rican). And the cultural cues are dialed up— all the damn way up.
