Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Nov 21 10 tweets 2 min read
If one, strictly hypothetically, had custodied one’s assets with one’s money launderer, and one’s money launderer (who has a reputation for stealing any money custodied with him) recently became suddenly bankrupt, I think one may not appreciate how comprehensively %]*}^]ed one is
“Subtweet rule.”

Darn it. Tether, obviously.

We (as a society) do not yet know where in the U.S. banking perimeter Tether’s money is, but if it is anywhere, it is the hottest money on the face of the planet right now.
“How would Tether be so stupid as to custody assets with a money launderer?”

Having been burned once by Crypto Capital Corp, which spent part of their reserves buying a football team, I think it is more than probable that they got burned once more.
“Would you feel sorry for Tether in this case?”

Where’s that tweet I have about the wisdom of choosing financial partners for their corruptibility and skill with money laundering.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
It is not an accident that fraudsters frequently get defrauded. It is baked in!

You can’t go to an aboveboard financial institution and say “I need you to build a way for me to cheat my quarterly attestations by, for example, moving in money immediately before them.”
“Would Tether do that?!”

Did it. Past tense. On public record in NYAG / CFTC case.
If you were the product manager for this, do you think you would tell them “Oh absolutely I can help you sweep money into that account programmatically so that your very small ops team can focus on more important things than where your money is today.”
And possibly “You know, bank UIs are so tiresome to download statements from. Good thing many banks have APIs these days. Let me build you a dashboard that shows you where all your money is in real time.”
“That sounds like FUD I bet they can still do redemptions.”

Through which currently operating money launderer, though. There are far fewer choices than they would want and scrutiny for it would be somewhat high at the moment, and that’s even before next few shoes drop.
“Next few shoes?”

I refer you to Stringer Bell’s dictum on the wisdom of keeping notes on a criminal conspiracy. Now, an unfortunate fact of life as a money launderer: you probably need to have books and you *certainly* face contras who keep comprehensive records.

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More from @patio11

Nov 23
IRS: You owe us 10 cents.
Me: Oh for the love of.
IRS: You are required to use EFTPS to pay for this variety of tax.
Me: EFTPS will not let me pay because...
IRS: Then pay by check; 10% penalty.
Me: To confirm: you want a total of ELEVEN CENTS. BY CHECK.
IRS: Yes and hurry up.
There is some uncertainty as to whether, in fact, the entity in question actually owes the ten cents, but I am too busy at this exact moment to argue the point for the relatable business administrative procedures influencer content.
Idly wondering under what circumstances Tylenol for a sudden migraine is a permissible business expense and then both happy and sad to know that I probably have a pretty good understanding of the answer to that question.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 23
I should get together a reading list on financial fraud. It’s one of the subjects I periodically rabbit holes on and then periodically becomes suddenly professionally relevant.
Spoiler alert: top of the list is Lying about Money.

Anyhow, some recurring themes:

1) Frauds are obfuscation engines
2) The core actual problem is often strikingly simple
3) Fraudsters frequently have a very high opinion of themselves
The combination of the fog being thrown off by the machine, fancy lingo, exaggerated prowess of fraudsters, and incentives for various actors means that frequently people model fraudsters as hypercompetent financial elites.

This is… very rarely true.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 22
I would neutrally observe that this is rational adaptation to an environment which has observably happening systemic risks and no lender of last resort. Indeed, a substantial portion of all societal technology built around the financial system is to avoid crises shaped like this.
Note that the crisis doesn't have to be purely one of confidence. That can happen, and is a known failure pattern.

But that is not the only pattern.
Financial systems are intrinsically networked. A severe enough event at one node, if it is systemically important, can put all other systemically important nodes at prompt risk of their own severe events. This becomes difficult to predict and extremely non-linear.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 21
I think this is commendably epistemically rigorous and, also, part of the way that media sometimes negotiates in real time with itself on which people who are conducting data gathering, cross-referencing, and significant question asking may count as practicing journalism.
That has a bunch of knock on effects due to the culture that is journalism, from a perceived obligation to begin sentences with “As first reported by…” to perceived social permission to ask management questions like “It has been reported that … sourced to your statements.”
And then the extremely important follow-up question, depending on how journalist feels:

“Do you have a comment?”

Or, rarely but extremely significantly,

“Do you deny it on record?”
Read 11 tweets
Nov 20
Somebody. Give. This. Man. The. Pulitzer.
Yes, he’s an anonymous Twitter troll. Yes, he’s not infrequently off base. Yes, he doesn’t present like a finance professional.

All of these are true.

But why is he *always* the one who has primary source material already archived when it is deleted? And why does he notice?
This is not a once off thing! Not a thrice off thing! No! He has been doing this since 2017! I have watched him lap the entire financial press! Since 2017!

He got to this story years before Bloomberg! Which has a crypto arm!
Read 7 tweets
Nov 19
I’ve believed crypto to be in a credit bubble, for years. I think we’re shortly to find that embedded leverage in the sector was far, far higher than anyone, even its most ardent critics, expected.

If this is true… it will not be pretty.
I had always assumed that Tether was the central bank of crypto, mostly because it was proven they were engaged in credit creation.

It looks increasingly likely that there was actually something of a rogue’s gallery which built a feedback loop, while not understanding it.
Read 6 tweets

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