Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 21 5 tweets 2 min read
I get 53.5 by 2018 preferences (very rubbery estimate because of very high Others vote and lack of detail of who Others are) #ResolvePM
Since the last poll IND has gone from 12 to 6 and Others has gone from 6 to 12. Question is is this a result of offering voters actual ballot choices as per federal or not. Need more detail.
In theory if Others included a big chunk of ON/UAP then respondent 53-47 could even be on the high side for these primaries. But just can't see any breakdown.

Also offering full ballot paper could partly explain low Green vote.

Resolve has been a rather volatile poll.
At the federal election when Resolve switched to listing actual parties on the ballot IND dropped from 9 to 4 but it was mostly Greens that gained (to an unrealistic 15). ONP and UAP gained 1 point, Others excluding them didn't gain at all.
On Wikipedia a user has published the primaries in decimal form:

ALP 36.2 L-NP 35.8 Green 10.1 others 17.9 respondent 2PP 52.7 to ALP.

I cannot find this online anywhere. Print edition?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @kevinbonham

Nov 22
There's a stoush going on about this. It's another Lower House case where the preferences will definitely never reach the candidate concerned so it is all about symbolism, but some comments about it anyway. #VicVotes
Both major parties have put Baker-Pearce 5th. However the Liberals have put him above Animal Justice, Greens and Labor, while Labor has put him above the Liberal Democrats, Family First Victoria and Freedom Party Victoria.
Labor's card has some obvious up-down ordering to make the card easy to follow (this is common). The Liberal card has no such design and appears to be a conscious ordering.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 21
Haven't seen primary source on this but this is another dose of Morgan's weird unprompted question about who voters trust (not a 'do you trust X?' type question which is more standard + gets higher scores.)
This is also interesting. Dishonest/liar is only about half of 18%, ie not much. But the fact that it so dominates the list if anything suggests the other stuff against Andrews is lacking traction.

In particular, heavyhandedness over lockdowns has been one of the biggest critiques of Andrews so where is it here? "Arrogance" also struggling to record an asterisk.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 20
#ThisIsNotPollReporting

Article in Herald-Sun claimed Redbridge poll showed "support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge"

Sure it did - on primary votes. Published 2PP was 53.5 to ALP (probably an underestimate)

#VicVotes
Another similar report at news.com.au has "Concern within the Labor Party is mounting, with polling revealed by the Herald Sun this week predicting a possible hung parliament."
1. The poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.
2. The poll snapshots voting intention, not seats in parliament.
3. If you say something's merely possible, that's not a prediction.
4. The chance of a hung parliament if votes cast matched the Redbridge poll is negligible.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 19
Absolutely farcical. Vetting so poor that a candidate has made it to what is normally a guaranteed win position will not sit in the party room.

#VicVotes
So the only way to vote above all else for Coalition candidates who will sit in the party room in E Vic is to vote below the line and rank top candidate below the others or not at all.

Congrats to the Victorian Liberals for discovering a new species of mess.
Also, while Guy says she will not sit in the party room it doesn't seem she has been actually disendorsed by the party. Even when a candidate is formally endorsed on the ballot paper a party can still declare they no longer unofficially endorse that candidate.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 17
This is disingenuous garbage from Premier Andrews. His own MPs on Electoral Matters passed the buck back to the Parliament to commission a review into GTV in the previous term and his own government then failed to start that review. #VicVotes

theage.com.au/politics/victo…
You could only think the matter of Group Ticket Voting was not in sharp focus after at least a fifth of the parliament was elected undeservedly in 2018 - resulting in a deluge of submissions - if you were a politician with severe vision problems.
It is also hypocritical for the Liberals to say they would refer Labor to IBAC as the Liberals should also be investigated over claims made in the video. In particular, whether a desire to avoid upsetting Druery resulted in them abandoning a previous anti_GTV position.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 17
Tweet I quote-tweeted has disappeared but there are other reports that the teals have won their appeal against the VEC over how-to-vote cards. VCAT may have overturned 2018 Sheed ruling, will be interesting to see the judgement. #VicVotes
Pleased to see this because if the VEC and previous VCAT reading of the law was correct then the law would have been a donkey. No evidence the cards cause informal voting and even if they do it only hurts the candidate using them.
For a detailed discussion of why there is no evidence these cards shift the informal rate in either direction see my article here:

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/firing…
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(