Thread by @Dcollier74

🚨 🚨 My #PSLF work with @FitzEdPolicy sponsored by the @theSBPC is available to read.

This is the initial analysis in a wider mixed methods study - it's also one of the first of it's kind because we finally have available data on Forgiven borrowers.

protectborrowers.org/new-analysis-i…

We wanted to know if we could see any relationships between achieving forgiveness and being in repayment (based on remaining payments) - and financial measures or reports of subjective well-being (e.g. stress and satisfaction).

Paper in link.

protectborrowers.org/wp-content/upl…

We found connections between forgiveness and homeownership rates and increased FICO scores.

We didn't find statically relevant relationships to non-retirement and retirement savings - but there was functionally beneficial increases in non-retirement savings (+$100 per month).

Seems common that (dis)stress doesn't move much until people are within 12 repayments of forgiveness - lowest levels at forgiveness.

Those with 13+ repayments are usually more financially stressed, have higher levels of psych distress, and perceived stress.

Now, there was some variation in the Satisfaction With Life Scale - but again there wasn't much movement there until forgiveness.

And Job Satisfaction was poorly predicted in our models - so any argument that if PSLF works most peeps will up and leave their jobs is likely wrong.

Finally, we looked at reports of suicidal thoughts, non-script drug use, and drinking alone.

The % of people who report engaging in these behaviors spike in the same remaining payments bins that Psych Distress is elevated - these bins have the highest % of "Severe Distress".

So what? Well we see a lot of immediate benefits in borrowers who have achieved forgiveness - financially and well-being related.

And this can give us an indication of benefits for other forgiveness policies.

However....

... we collected this data during the pause and we expect that when payments resume that may outcomes become more pronounced.

For example, it's likely savings and well-being measures revise downward for those repaying - providing even more benefit to forgiveness.

We'll test it.

A few more things, we have doubled our sample size since this initial analysis but more data will allow us to drill down so if you're in #PSLF please follow the link and take our survey!

It's password protected so you have to type in PSLF to access it.

memphis.co1.qualtrics.com/distributions/…

Also we want to thank @theSBPC for their generous resources, partnership, and time here! They've been fantastic partners.

We have a lot more work to do here but these are exciting initial outcomes!

@AnnaHelhoski @NPRCoryTurner @aarthiswami @rkelchen @timgill924 @saragoldrickrab @bakerdphd @cant_b @imbernomics @DaniDougPost @danielmangrum @MarketWatch @JohnArnoldFndtn @rebeccanatow @louise_seamster @CharlieEatonPhD @insidehighered @ChrisMarsicano @YahooFinance @EDAnalyst

@sarahewalsh @Econ_Marshall @jainfamilyinst @Foxsquire @BobWMurphy @pewresearch @econroy_1 @Prof_Bruckner @Prof_WCByrd @tressiemcphd @DocOcho @UpjohnInstitute @KhoaVuUmn @mzinshteyn @mcanthonyjr @sparkyabraham @DrJCottrell @ElizaHaverstock

Next steps, MOAR data!

But we've doubled our sample size since then. I'd like to try to get 2.5k+ profiles.

Our main analysis is a SEM that I'll jump on early 23 - and we'll be hiring 3 doc students to help us with the qualitative portion!!!

After payments resume, We'll follow up with this sample to see how things have changed in a year.

A good natural experiment with data that nobody else has.

Furthermore, we're gonna have more research in partnership with @theSBPC and @UC_SLLI in the upcoming months - specially on IDR.

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