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Ethan Mollick Profile picture
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Nov 22 • 2 tweets • 2 min read
Two areas of technical change where expert predictions have consistently been way too conservative are AI & solar.

In 2016, AI researchers predicted AI could win Go in 5 to 25 years. It happened in 2017! Look at the chart for more.

The solar power chart shows something similar. ImageImage
The AI paper is fascinating, less than 6 years old and already out of date. Many of these milestones are already passed. You can read the paper here: arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807… ImageImageImage

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More from @emollick

Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Nov 22
🤯Because of Excel, a THIRD of all genetics papers published in top journals have errors, as many genes have names like SEPT2 (the official name of Septin 2), which Excel automatically makes dates.

The issue was found in 2016, but still hasn’t improved! journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/a… ImageImage
High prestige journals were worse:
44% of genetics articles in Nature with Excel supplemental files have errors
53% of articles in Cell
47% of articles in PNAS
And here's a live dashboard of the genetics Excel errors detected in top journals every month: ziemann-lab.net/public/gene_na…
And before anyone else posts it. Image
Read 4 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Nov 22
New space dystopia unlocked!

This paper finds human blood protein, combined with Martian or Lunar rock, makes a substance as hard as concrete.

To make it stronger by 300%, add urea "which could be extracted from the urine, sweat or tears of astronauts." sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And yes, they tested it. And yes, it works.
This table compares the ease of harvesting astronauts for their blood, sweat and tears to the alternative of farming spiders.
Read 4 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Nov 22
People talk about people playing “4D chess” when they outsmart everyone else, but does that mean people who play 1D chess are dumb? What about 5D?

A 🧵 of chess games by dimension.

Start with 1-D chess, which is surprisingly good. You can play it here: silvarc.itch.io/1d-chess
Next, 2D chess, which is just... chess.

So, instead play chess as a roguelike! Chess with fog of war! Chess as a sliding puzzle! Chess that will make you look smart! And more. All by @pippinbarr pippinbarr.com/ideas/chess/
3D chess was famously featured in the original Star Trek. Unsurprisingly, fans have developed rules, boards, and tournaments. The article has a number of ways to play it at the bottom. memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Three-dim…
Read 6 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Nov 20
GDP around the world massively undervalues the actual quality of life gains we get from Internet services, most at no cost.

Large-scale experiments show that average Americans would need to be paid $15k a year to give up search engines and $6k for email. pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.107…
Just look at all the free stuff that Apple and Android just 𝙜𝙞𝙫𝙚 you... As @raykwong estimated a couple years ago, millions of dollars of capabilities, all more-or-less free, all in your pocket. And we don't count any of this massive change to welfare in our GDP estimates.
The rich also had entirely better consumer goods than everyone else - high end television brands, more accurate watches, car phones. It is fascinating that is all gone. Now you can’t really buy better phones or TVs than the masses (not that the rich can’t buy many other things)
Read 5 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Nov 20
🚨This is the trap that social media, and by extension all of us, are in:
📈Toxicity drives use. Lowering toxicity drops ad sales (if you are ad supported) & engagement (even if you are not)
📉Toxicity spreads like a disease. It turns regular users toxic & makes networks awful
Papers:
New experiment on toxicity, use and ad sales: drive.google.com/file/d/1HYiBOG…

Outrage drives use: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

Toxicity spreads: ojs.aaai.org/index.php/ICWS…

Toxic people ruin networks: arxiv.org/pdf/1803.03697…
There are clear ways to reduce toxicity - moderation, content removal with detailed policies, community norms, temporary bans when needed and permanent bans for trolls.

There are clear ways to increase engagement - more outrage & toxicity.

No clear way to do both at scale. 😬
Read 4 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Nov 19
Every so often, when you are taking the Internet too seriously, remember anatidaephobia.

An invention of Gary Larson, it is the "fear that somehow, somewhere a duck is watching you." It has made its way to mental health sites, where it is presented as real. Read the articles! 🦆
To be fair…
Now I am starting to get suspicious.
Read 4 tweets

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