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Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Nov 23 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1. An overdue #Ebola update:
Something appears to be working in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak, though I should stress that all I have to go on right now are data released by the Ugandan government. Per their latest SitRep, there hasn't been a new confirmed case since Nov. 12.
2. No new cases, no new deaths. The outbreak is currently holding at 163 confirmed & probable cases & 77 confirmed and probable deaths. #Ebola
afro.who.int/sites/default/…
3. A chart in the latest #Ebola SitRep shows 4 districts have had their most recent case within the past 2 weeks. The incubation period for Ebola is up to 21 days, so they aren't out of the woods.
These are only confirmed cases; I'm not sure when the last probable case was.
4. If the outbreak continues on this path, it seems seems conceivable the effort to test #Ebola Sudan vaccines won't get results that will show if they are efficacious or not. That would be sad, but more Ebola cases & deaths would be sadder.

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More from @HelenBranswell

Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 19
1. A #flu 🧵
Two more children have died from flu this season. They died the week ending Nov. 5. To date there've been 7 pediatric flu deaths so far this season.
2. #Flu activity is crazy high for this time of year. It's key to remember that what's unusual here is the timing; many years flu activity hasn't even started to pick up at this point. This year flu season hit early. Not yet clear how long it will last or how severe it will be.
3. We can see that really clearly in this graphic from this week's FluView, which covers the week ending Nov. 12. This is the cumulative rate of hospitalizations caused by confirmed #flu. This year's activity (red line) is happening way early. Not clear if it will be a bad year.
Read 6 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 14
1. Short #Ebola 🧵
Another health worker has been infected in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak, a 23 yo woman working in Mubende district. Here's hoping she recovers.
2. Uganda's health ministry has been downplaying the scale of its outbreak by refusing to add probable cases to case/death counts. They aren't just doing it to overall cases, they're doing it with health workers too.
They say there have been 19 HCW infections + 7 deaths.
3. But if you look inside their situation reports, there is one table in which they list probable cases (all probable cases are people who died without being tested). If you look there, you see that in addition to 19 confirmed HCW cases, there've been 7 probable HCW cases.
Read 4 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 10
1. A #flu thread:
@cdcgov posted FluView early this week; tomorrow is a federal holiday.
This week's edition is a little eye popping.
Let's start with this map. This year CDC has added a whole new activity level, "very high" & new colors, deep red & purple.
Whoa.
2. It's so startling to see that much color in the map this early in the #flu season. This, for instance, is how the map — which represents how much respiratory illness there is going around — looked at the same time in the 2017-18 flu season. That season peaked in late Feb.
3. So, lots and lots of people in the SE, South center, California and up the eastern seaboard were suffering respiratory infections in the week ending Nov. 5. This is not all #flu. Some of this — a lot in some places — would be #RSV and/or Covid.
Read 9 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 10
1. Short #Ebola thread:
@WHO issued an update — a DON — today about the Ugandan outbreak. It's been nearly 2 weeks since their last. The scarcity of detail coming out on this outbreak continues to surprise & concern me. I believe that's Uganda's call.
who.int/emergencies/di…
2. The latest SitRep from Uganda reports that there have been 157 confirmed and probable #Ebola cases & 54 confirmed and probable deaths. They will not add the probable cases so we have to do the math ourselves. I added those arrows.
3. @WHO's update gives a breakdown of #Ebola cases/deaths by affected region. Eight regions have had cases but Mubende and Kassanda have been the hardest hit. Two — Bunyangabu & Kagadi — seem to have contained transmission. Neither has had a case in >40 days.
Read 5 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 5
1. #Ebola thread.
Uganda's health minister, @JaneRuth_Aceng announced today that the special measures put in place in mid-October to stop spread of the disease have been extended for another 21 days. Among other things, they block movement in & out of the 2 worst hit areas.
2. Those areas are Mubende & Kassanda districts. @JaneRuth_Aceng said to date there have been 132 confirmed #Ebola cases & 53 confirmed deaths. She didn't mention the 21 probable cases & deaths; they bring the outbreak totals to 153 cases & 74 deaths.
3. The health minister said a weak health system, myths & misinformation, a belief in witchcraft & exhumation of dead bodies to perform cultural rituals are obstructing efforts to control the #Ebola outbreak.
1 exhumation lead to 43 people contracting the disease & 6 deaths.
Read 4 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 4
1. A #flu thread.
@CDCgov's weekly flu update is up. The data are for the week that ended Oct. 29. CDC is having a press conference on flu and other respiratory bugs at noon; I'll likely add to this after that.
First thing: The flu season is indeed off to a very early start. Image
2. The sharp rise in medical visits for #influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) is unusual this early. 2 caveats:
- This is not all #flu. There's a lot of RSV going around now; it is captured in the graph.
- This tells us there's a lot of flu-like illness. Says nothing about severity.
3. It's going to take time to see whether this is going to be an early & severe #flu season, or early & moderate or early & mild. (Not betting on the last option.)
To date @CDCgov estimates there have been at least 1.6M flu illness, 13K hospitalizations & 730 deaths from flu. Image
Read 10 tweets

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