Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 23 20 tweets 4 min read
Debate on govt's electoral reform bill has moved to the area of much interest to me, public funding (S132). The Greens are now moving an amendment to remove the proposed 4% threshhold for public funding entirely (I support keeping it but to parties not candidates). #politas
There is a valid argument for a threshhold of some sort that isn't money-saving - discourage unnecessary proliferation of uncompetitive candidates/parties. Anyway, amendment defeated without division.
Labor now moving amendments to change from per-candidate funding to per-party funding. I support this change very strongly (there may be some discussion about exact wording.)
Large chunks of kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/how-no… now being read into Hansard by @EllaHaddadMP (thankyou)
Attorney-General is saying I have not looked at application to 35 seats. That is again incorrect as I have done so and discussed some outcomes with her staff.
Attorney-General Archer currently saying the Govt is going to pass the Bill with this current defective model intact. That will oblige me to write to the LegCo, can I be paid for my time thankyou? Perhaps by pronouncing my surname correctly in future?
. @CassyOConnorMP supported the amendment and raised issues re INDs - which caused me to think that there might be scope for treating non-party groups like parties.

Amendment was lost without division in anticipation of Govt amending Bill in the LegCo. (Sigh.)
@CassyOConnorMP Greens now moving to replace the $6 rate with the Commonwealth rate (though intended to tie this to scrapping the 4% threshhold which has already been defeated.)
Division on the second of the defective clauses standing part of the Bill with Greens and @KrisJJohnston against and Labor and Liberal for (but noting above re intent to amend in LegCo).
The Bill has passed the lower house without amendment. Off to the panelbeaters.

Now on to the government's other electoral bill, Electoral Matters Miscellaneous Amendments. There is a lot of good stuff in this one.
Explanation of reforms being introduced here

parliament.tas.gov.au/Bills/Bills202…
Among other things this will kill off the archaic restriction on naming candidates without their consent (except on how to vote cards).
Labor flagging questions that may be pursued in LegCo regarding "dominant purpose" test for definition of "electoral matter" , eg regarding day to day work of third parties that campaign for policy outcomes more than vote outcomes.
. @CassyOConnorMP moving a savings provision for unintended informal votes. OPV as a savings provision as in the ACT.

Also corrects the misrepresentation of one of my submissions in a previous report (thankyou!)
Nice anecdote of voter who said "I just gave you my number 1, I didn't want to vote for anyone else." Every Tasmanian candidate's nightmare!
. @EllaHaddadMP notes Tasmania's high informal rate. We're now the second worst state after Vic - there was an increase in unintended informals in 2021 and I'm not sure why (maybe just lack of TEC lead-time). Could get worse under 35 seats.
Division on OPV as a savings provision tied 11-11 and lost on casting vote.
Greens now introducing truth in advertising amendment.
Truth in advertising amendment also lost on casting vote.
Bill passes third reading.

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More from @kevinbonham

Nov 25
"[..] told The Age the Coalition was on track for a “better result than anyone has publicly predicted”, with the party confident of picking up [..] Ashwood, Box Hill, Yan Yean, Ringwood and Melton."

Yan Yean?

theage.com.au/national/victo…
Yan Yean is on 16.9% but that is inflated by several points because the Liberal candidate was disendorsed last time. The real margin is probably more like 10-12%.
Yan Yean is also vacant and is outer metro so there are things going on there that should cause a large swing, explaining why it is far shorter in betting than others on similar margins. Would still be quite a bolter for it to fall.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 25
#Newspoll Vic (state) 54.5 to ALP
ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 12 others 15
Andrews net -2 (46-48)
Guy net -25
Read 7 tweets
Nov 24
Blocked @mayorquimby123 for persistent bad faith debating but thought it was worth giving this a broader audience:

Defenders of Victorian Group Ticket Voting often argue that everything's fine because voters can easily just vote 1-5 and stop BTL. They're wrong. #VicVotes
The reason they're wrong in terms of fairness to voters is that a 1-5 and stop BTL vote is not a fully effective vote. It helps only 1-3 parties then exhausts. The effort barrier to expressing your own preferences between *all* parties is much greater.
Under GTV a voter who fully agrees with their party ticket can give full preferences by just numbering one box. A voter who does not agree with any party ticket needs to number every box to do so. That effort barrier is plainly and simply politically discriminatory and wrong.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 23
heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/…

This is claimed to be "bombshell new polling" but no new polling is mentioned. #VicVotes
Perhaps because of the paywall some people are confusing this story with the Mulgrave exit poll rubbish. This one is analysis by Redbridge with seat predictions but how much polling is included, when and where from is not spelled out.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 23
This is circulating and is clearly illegal mis/disinfo. In fact (i) Sack Dan Andrews is a Druery thing not a Labor thing (ii) SDA preferences other micros (iii) SDA orderings of the major parties vary between tickets.

#VicVotes

@electionsvic
@electionsvic Indeed the major party orderings submitted by SDA not only vary as to which party is put first but also often chop and change the order of major party candidates (obfuscating which party is really being helped.)
(It may be the material originates outside Victoria but Victorians circulating it are republishing material that misleads in relation to the casting of a vote by making a false statement about the consequences of voting ATL for a party.)
Read 5 tweets
Nov 22
There's a stoush going on about this. It's another Lower House case where the preferences will definitely never reach the candidate concerned so it is all about symbolism, but some comments about it anyway. #VicVotes
Both major parties have put Baker-Pearce 5th. However the Liberals have put him above Animal Justice, Greens and Labor, while Labor has put him above the Liberal Democrats, Family First Victoria and Freedom Party Victoria.
Labor's card has some obvious up-down ordering to make the card easy to follow (this is common). The Liberal card has no such design and appears to be a conscious ordering.
Read 5 tweets

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