Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Russia is planning a second wave of partial mobilisation over the winter of 2022/23 but lacks the capacity for a general mobilisation, according to the independent Russian news website Verstka. It is already struggling to provide even the basics to the currently mobilised. ⬇️

2/ Up to 300,000 Russians have already been mobilised, but problems with the current wave of mobilisation are said by Verstka to have persuaded the Kremlin that a general mobilisation of up to 25 million reservists is not possible.

3/ This would require putting the economy on a full war footing. Russia is already short of uniforms, weapons, medicine, food, accommodation and training. "There are plenty of people, but not enough guns, bulletproof vests, sleeping bags, vehicles," a source tells Verstka.

4/ Verstka says that according to a source in the Russian Far East military distriuct, there are currently neither organisational, nor material resources for full mobilisation, nor even for any large-scale second wave of mobilisation.

5/ "Even the first wave is hardly 'digestible'," the source says. "There will be nowhere to train people, nowhere to arm and in some cases even feed them".

6/ Another source says that he was at the Chebarkul training ground in Tomsk region and describes it as being "completely fucked up", which led to protests by the mobilised men because of poor supplies and the poor quality of training.

7/ Discussions of full mobilisation were tempered by the realisation that problems with the training and equipping of the mobilised "cannot be solved so easily, in a couple of months".

8/ According to the source, hardline war supporters including Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin had unsuccessfully advocated martial law and full mobilisation in closed-door discussions following Ukraine's September offensive east of Kharkiv.

9/ Verstka reports that they advocated to the Kremlin that "full mobilisation should begin immediately if "more serious" battles begin on the territory of Russia." However, this was rejected as it was unclear how to determine the "seriousness" of the fighting.

10/ One Duma representative, Viktor Sobolev, publicly suggested in November that plans for further mobilisation would depend "on the military and political situation that will develop in the future...

11/ "If, as now, military actions are only on the territory of Ukraine, I think the mobilisation that has taken place will be enough. And if aggression from the Western countries increases efforts against Russia, of course, mobilisation will be necessary.

12/ "But if the situation develops negatively, we will probably need full mobilisation, not partial."

Verstka says that this statement did not go down well and Sobolev was immediately "kicked in the teeth" for making it.

13/ Nonetheless, more mobilisation will soon be needed because the currently mobilised are being used up rapidly.

"Obviously, the current [mobilised] will run out, more people will be needed, according to our calculations, by as soon as the end of winter", says Verstka's source.

14/ The Russian government is said to be preparing for a fresh partial mobilisation by hurriedly "patching up the holes" in the production and preparation of basic necessities for soldiers, as well as weapons and other equipment.

15/ The first mobilisation revealed major problems with the performance of military registration and enlistment offices, which are being reformed in response. The "Horizon-MR" military enrolment computer system is being linked to other Russian government databases.

16/ This is being done to ensure that the commissariats will be better prepared and have more accurate lists of those subject to mobilisation. The government is also said to be preparing new regional mobilisation centres and training new military instructors.

17/ The next wave is likely to begin in the New Year, though its exact timing is unclear. Verstka notes that while the end of the initial mobilisation was announced on 28 October, no presidential decree to that effect was issued.

18/ Its sources claim the lack of a fresh decree was deliberately intended to leave open the possibility of future waves of mobilisation. According to one lawyer, it could even open the door to a general mobilisation, if it was decided that would be necessary. /end

Source:
verstka.media/pochemu-ne-bud…